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A failure to deliver

Shortly after taking office, President Biden called on the government
to do better. “We have to prove democracy still works,” he told
Congress. “That our government still works — and we can deliver for
our people.”

Most Americans seem to believe Biden has not done so: 42 percent of
Americans approve of his job performance, while 53 percent disapprove,
according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls.

In today’s newsletter, I want to use Covid as a case study for how
Biden failed to persuade Americans that the government delivered and
instead cemented perceptions that it cannot.

Polling suggests that Covid — not the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from
Afghanistan — jump-started Biden’s political problems. His approval
rating began to drop in July, weeks before the withdrawal.
Source: FiveThirtyEight

That timing coincides with the rise of the Delta variant and reports
that vaccine protection against infection was not holding up. Both
came after Biden suggested for months that an “Independence Day” from
Covid was near, setting up Americans for disappointment as it became
clear that his administration would not fulfill arguably its biggest
promise.
The Covid example

At first, the Biden administration’s pandemic response helped
highlight how government can solve a big problem. Millions of
Americans were receiving shots a day — a campaign that Biden compared
to wartime mobilization.

But then things went awry, culminating in the disappointment many
Americans now feel toward Biden’s handling of Covid.

Biden’s administration gave mixed messages on boosters and masks that
at times appeared to contradict data and experts. As we have covered
before, U.S. officials often have not trusted the public with the
truth about Covid and precautions.
Getting a booster in Jackson, Ala., last year.Charity Rachelle for The
New York Times

Congress also lagged behind, with pandemic funding caught in
intraparty squabbles and partisan fights — the kind of gridlock that
has often prevented lawmakers from getting things done in recent years.

“American government is fairly slow and very incremental,” said Julia
Azari, a political scientist at Marquette University. “That makes it
very difficult to be responsive.”

Perhaps Biden’s biggest mistake was, as Azari put it, “overpromising.”
He spent early last summer suggesting that vaccines would soon make
Covid a concern of the past — a view some experts shared at the time, too.

Biden could not control what followed, as the virus persisted. But he
could have set more realistic expectations for how a notoriously
unpredictable pandemic would unfold.

Another problem preceded Biden’s presidency: the political
polarization of the pandemic. It made vaccines a red-versus-blue
issue, with many Republicans refusing to get shots. Yet the vaccines
remain the single best weapon against Covid.

Given the high polarization, Biden’s options against Covid are now
limited. His support for vaccines can even turn Republicans against
the shots, one study found.

“There is more that could be done, but the impact would probably only
be at the margins, rather than transformative,” said Jen Kates of the
Kaiser Family Foundation.

Even if Biden cannot do much, the public will likely hold him
responsible for future Covid surges; voters expect presidents to solve
difficult issues. “People blame the administration for problems that
are largely outside its control,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political
scientist at Dartmouth College.
Lost trust

Biden framed his call to deliver as a test for American democracy. He
drew comparisons to the 1930s — “another era when our democracy was
tested,” then by the threat of fascism. He pointed to new threats:
Donald Trump challenging the legitimacy of U.S. elections and China’s
president, Xi Jinping, betting that “democracy cannot keep up with him.”

There is a historical factor, too. Since the Vietnam War and
Watergate, Americans’ trust in their government has fallen. If Biden
had succeeded, he could have helped reverse this trend.

But Covid, and the government’s response to it, did the opposite.
Trust in the C.D.C. fell throughout the pandemic: from 69 percent in
April 2020 to 44 percent in January, according to NBC News.

Distrust in government can turn into a vicious cycle. The government
needs the public’s trust to get things done — like, say, a mass
vaccination campaign. Without that support, government efforts will be
less successful. And as the government is less successful, the public
will lose more faith in it.

Given the polarization surrounding Covid and the government’s mixed
record, skepticism seems a more likely outcome than the renaissance of
trust that Biden called for.
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bill
Theory don't mean squat if it don't work.