On 21 Nov 2021, No COVID Lies <bob7duncan@gmail.com> posted some
news:sneg2j$ebb$58@news.dns-netz.com:

> China does not care about the 20%. If they die, they don't eat.

The trouble began in April. That month, Chinese government data showed
that one in five young workers�between the ages of 16 and 24�was
unemployed, a record high. The next month, it was even worse. The problem
is likely to just metastasize over the coming months: Another 11.6 million
graduates will leave college in June to a dearth of job openings and a
stumbling economy. China�s Gen Z is just like America�s, only much more
burned out and with slim economic hopes.

The economic data from the world�s second largest economy is grim reading.
Key economic indicators such as retail sales, manufacturing, exports, and
investment are still growing, but not meeting the sky-high expectations
proclaimed in the immediate aftermath of the country�s reopening from
COVID-zero. A surprise plunge in exports in May now means that China is
trading less than this time last year�when Shanghai, its busiest port, was
in the middle of a two-month lockdown.

Worryingly, China�s youth unemployment rate is surging even as the overall
unemployment rate holds steady. Urban unemployment stood at 5.2% in May,
while youth unemployment was four times higher at 20.8%.

China�s work culture is famously tough, especially in the tech sector.
Internet companies there are renowned for the so-called 996 working
culture: working from 9:00 am to 9:00 pm, six days a week. Some young
Chinese have even left professional careers for lower-paying manual labor
to get out of the country�s tough offices. The surging youth unemployment
rate suggests they�re opting out entirely.

President Xi Jinping has resorted to several appeals to young workers to
roll up their sleeves and adopt a patriotic hard work ethic, encouraging
the young to �eat bitterness��a Chinese term that connotes grit and
enduring hardship�to succeed. In July 2021, at the 100th anniversary of
the Chinese Communist Party, Xi said that young people have a
responsibility to �rejuvenate the nation,� just like their ancestors did,
which involved working tirelessly and struggling even.

But a look at Chinese youth culture shows a �moonlight clan� that is
�lying flat� and does not want to eat a �lunch of suffering.� Take a look
at China�s Gen Z and the major struggle of their young careers.

'A piece of blank paper'
The dearth of job openings is fueling a sense of disillusionment among
China�s young.

Photos of graduates slumped on the ground, or throwing away their degrees,
or digitally inserted in front of a burning building litter the country�s
social media, as young Chinese joke that their time spent in higher
education was wasted.

Employers are reportedly turning away qualified graduates, fearing that
China�s extended lockdowns under COVID-zero have prevented university
students from getting important skills and work experience.

�They said I�m a greenhorn. In the words of my interviewer, I am a piece
of blank paper without any actual work experience,� Connie Xu, a 22-year-
old graduate who has been hunting for jobs, told the South China Morning
Post earlier this month.

China�s social media-savvy youth have come up with several new terms to
describe the drudgery of everyday working life. There�s the years-old
phrase �lying flat,� which long predates the U.S. term �quiet quitting,�
for the idea of just doing the bare minimum to get by and rejecting social
expectations. There�s the �moonlight clan,� young people who spend their
paychecks on small luxuries rather than save for an unattainable standard
of living.

Even food is seen through a lens of ennui and absurdity: �white people
food� was recently trending on Chinese social media with photos of Western
cuisine such as ordinary sandwiches, cucumbers and carrots, as office
workers reject the full meals of Chinese cuisine in favor of a �lunch of
suffering� at their desks.

What�s causing China�s youth unemployment?
In the immediate term, China�s sluggish post-COVID economic recovery is
worsening the youth employment situation.

�Corporates are reluctant to hire because of soft consumer demand, while
consumers are reluctant to spend because of [a] weak labor market,� wrote
Larry Hu, chief China economist for the Macquarie Group, in a note in mid-
June.

The government�s capital-intensive model of development has done little to
spur youth employment, says Eswar Prasad, a senior trade policy professor
at Cornell University and the former China head for the International
Monetary Fund.

�Frictions like skill mismatch, compounded by overall weak employment
growth, have dampened employment prospects for Chinese youth,� Prasad told
Fortune. �Many youth are caught in the midst of the economy�s transition
to a less manufacturing-intensive economy as well as the government�s
attempts to reduce inefficient employment levels in bloated state-owned
enterprises.�

China�s unemployed youth can be put into two categories, suggests Gerard
DiPippo, a senior fellow at the Center of Security and International
Studies� economics program.

�One is the less educated, so those who might not have gone to college, or
people that normally would have worked in manufacturing or construction,�
DiPippo says, noting that the two sectors are �doing quite badly in China
by Chinese standards.� (China�s economy is in the midst of a property
bust, hitting home prices and dragging down a major source of wealth for
Chinese families).

More educated talent would normally aim for one of China�s tech giants,
like Alibaba or Tencent. Yet �they�ve slowed their hiring substantially in
recent years,� DiPippo says. He adds that hiring in the gig economy, which
also absorbs a lot of young labor, has likely peaked.

Local governments are now proposing different forms of employment to get
young people working. In March, Guangzhou�China�s wealthiest province on
its southern coast�proposed sending 300,000 unemployed young people to
work in the countryside. And at the beginning of June, Henan, China�s
third-most populous province, ordered its universities to start a �100-day
sprint� to find graduates jobs in state-owned enterprises, government
departments and rural projects.

The national government, for its part, has offered a 15-point plan to
boost youth employment, including measures like offering subsidies to
small- and medium-size enterprises to recruit college graduates, support
for aspiring entrepreneurs, and encouraging state-owned enterprises to
hire those early in their career.

What else is happening?
Chinese officials recognize that the economic recovery is quickly losing
steam. Families are wary of investing in new homes, thanks to the ongoing
property bust. Businesses are holding back on investment. And consumer
spending is slowing down after an initial post-COVID burst. Banks
including Barclays, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Nomura are all lowering their
full-year GDP forecasts for China.

China�s central bank cut a short-term interest rate in mid-June, a signal
that the country�s economic policymakers think more stimulus is needed.
Beijing will likely continue to cut interest rates, while also offering
more tax breaks for consumers and financing for infrastructure, according
to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

But there�s an uncomfortable truth: Even if Beijing gets the recovery back
on track, the country is not going to grow at the frantic pace reported in
the 2000s and 2010s. Even before COVID, China�s GDP growth was slowing,
hitting 6.0% in 2019 compared to 9.4% a decade earlier. Most economists
think that China will settle at a GDP growth rate between 4% and 5% in the
years to come.

A country with moderating growth means fewer jobs�especially skilled
jobs�for millions of new Chinese graduates.

�The next few years will be the most challenging period for employment
since the start of China�s reform and opening-up policy,� writes Wang
Mingyuan, a researcher at the Reform and Development Institute of Beijing,
a think tank. Wang�s article, according to Baiguan, a China-focused
newsletter that translated the piece into English, is now a popular read
among investors and policymakers in China.

Unemployment risks becoming a �pervasive social problem,� Wang warns,
�with one in every four or five households having an unemployed member.�

But to get GDP growth�and youth employment�back on track, Beijing will
need the help of the private sector. That would shift away from the
greater regulations and focus on state-owned enterprises under current
President Xi.

�With the labor force shrinking and with public investment proving
inefficient and creating financial risks, productivity growth will be
crucial to China�s prospects of sustaining decent GDP growth in the coming
years,� Prasad said. That means supporting private business, he adds.

Yet for now, China seems wedded to its policies of more moderate stimulus,
disappointing both economists and job seekers hoping for a faster economy.