from
https://news.yahoo.com/could-apparently-failed-attack-kyiv-173940249.html

Could the apparently failed attack on Kyiv force Russia to question its
nuclear capabilities?
305
Fabian Hoffmann
Tue, May 16, 2023 at 10:39 AM PDT·2 min read

Russian multiple launch rocket systems firing at Ukrainian military
positions - Ministry of Defense of Russia/Newsflash

The missile attack on Kyiv on Monday night was described by Ukrainian
authorities as “exceptional in its density”.

According to the Ministry of Defence in London, Russia launched a total
of 27 missile and drone systems against Kyiv, including Kinzhal
ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Iranian-supplied Shahed
drones.

However, perhaps more remarkable than the sheer rate of fire is
Ukraine’s – and by association the West’s – ability to absorb it. Kyiv
says it shot 100 per cent of the projectiles out of the sky, a claim
impossible to verify at this stage.

What is clear is that most – if not all – were neutralised, severely
undermining the alleged potency of Russia’s missile arsenal.

In addition, the events may force Russia’s nuclear strategists to ask
uncomfortable questions.

Some of the missile systems that were probably intercepted in Monday
night’s attack, including the much-touted Kinzhal hypersonic missile,
are dual capable.

This means they can, in theory, be deployed in conventional or nuclear
configurations, and constitute a cornerstone of Russia’s non-strategic,
or tactical, nuclear arsenal.

Tactical nuclear weapons are primarily intended to achieve battlefield
effect. For example, in the case of a hypothetical contingency, in which
Russia is fighting a war with Nato, and Nato’s troops threaten to break
Russian lines, Russia may conduct a tactical nuclear strike to halt
Nato’s advance.

Given the apparent effectiveness of Ukraine’s missile defences against
Russian short-range ballistic and cruise missiles, this may bring into
question Russia’s ability to successfully deploy its tactical nuclear
arsenal.

Russian propagandists have threatened the UK with missiles that can
cause nuclear tidal waves to wipe out London.

This was always clearly an exaggeration but even Vladimir Putin himself
has claimed the Kinzhal is unstoppable, saying in 2018 that it could
“overcome all existing and, I think, prospective anti-aircraft and
anti-missile defence systems”.

Russian decision makers may now start to question if they can bring
their tactical nuclear weapons to their targets, if push comes to shove.

Importantly, this does not mean that this week’s events have nullified
the potency of Russia’s overall nuclear deterrent. Russia remains,
together with the United States, the largest nuclear power in the world,
deploying a diverse arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons.

National security is usually discussed in terms of worst-case scenarios.
This is especially the case when it comes to nuclear strategy. Nuclear
weapons are, after all, the weapon of last resort and the ultimate
guarantor of national sovereignty.

As such, the “what ifs” may loom a bit larger today in the Russian
ministry of defence than usual.

Fabian Hoffmann is a missile technology expert and Doctoral Research
Fellow at the University of Oslo

Someone Other Than You
1 day ago

Russia wouldn’t try to use nukes now that the nations they’re trying to
scare know that their air defense systems can stop a barrage like the
one Kyiv just stopped. Russia hasn’t been talking about nuking Ukraine,
they’ve been using nukes as a deterrent to try to stall Western support
for Ukraine. Those Western countries now have much less reason to fear
Russia.

Alejandro
1 day ago

It's not really less of a worry, just one nuke making it through and
striking is enough to get a strong point across. Nukes today aren't like
Hiroshima, the smallest yield is at least 5x stronger than
Hiroshima....and Russia has nukes that are 200x stronger than Hiroshima.
The sheer mass destructio...

See more

Al
1 day ago

You are so smart. When a nuclear armed missile is shot down, you don’t
get just the debris, but also the radiation.

DB

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