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interests / rec.outdoors.rv-travel / Re: Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters who are no longer moving to the right as they age

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o Re: Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters whobfh

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Re: Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters who are no longer moving to the right as they age

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Subject: Re: Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters who
are no longer moving to the right as they age
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 by: bfh - Sat, 31 Dec 2022 05:23 UTC

Technobarbarian wrote:
>
> "Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics
>
> Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters who are
> no longer moving to the right as they age"
>
>     â€œIf you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are
> not a conservative at 35 you have no brain.” So said Winston
> Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of
> Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th
> century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow
> older, they tend to become more conservative.
>
> The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of
> Britain’s “silent generation”, born between 1928 and 1945, were
> five percentage points less conservative than the national average at
> age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The
> “baby boomer” generation traced the same path, and “Gen X”,
> born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.
>
> Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same
> trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking
> implications for the UK’s Conservatives and US Republicans, who can
> no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass."
>
> "Let’s start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics:
> people become more conservative with age. If millennials’ liberal
> inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35
> they too should be around five points less conservative than the
> national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more
> conservative. In fact, they’re more like 15 points less
> conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least
> conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history."
>
> https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4
>
> TB

Maaannnnn, that's literally depressing.

--
bill
Theory don't mean squat if it don't work.

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