Ancient soldiers ran fast to close in with the enemy to avoid on-coming missiles meant to soften their ranks with arrows, slingshots, javelins, catapults and other artillery. Modern armies and navies did the same before mounting an assault. The pounding was prelude to battle, and integral part of war.

Technology has changed all that. The reverse side of the computer coin, is a new kind of artillery. Before real, conventional war starts, hackers pound the target with all kinds of explosive software. But curiously, it is not considered an act of war just because it's a sneak attack.

Is there really a need to determine who is behind the cyber attacks on Ukraine?

Can the Kremlin's denials exempt them of culpability and free them from consequences? Yes.

No need for Russia to deploy General Winter against its foes anymore. Just attack their power grid in January with cyber worms and viruses.

Putin is no Trump, he is no dumb fuck wannabe dictator, but a chess master who knows how to exploit not only his opponent's weaknesses but also his strengths against itself.

Having feathered his nest like nobody before for the last twenty years, Putin's only choice is to rule or die. Who knows what the next Russian dictator might do to him if he were to lose his leadership position. So far he has been terribly successful. Obama was no match. And I fear nobody is at this moment.

Russia learned in Afghanistan that outright invasion is not what it used to be. But it has other ways. Like they did in Georgia, they encourage local minority factions that favor Russia to take the initiative and start the violence, and when the majority counter-attacks, Russia rushes in to support the underdog and 'make peace.' Expect something along these lines in Ukraine.

Timing is great, because the EU and the US are reeling from the pandemic and disunity. Putin senses they, again, don't have the inclination for a hot war on top of things, because if leave principle out, the cost-benefit analysis of an intervention is less than enticing.

Ukraine may well soon lose another slice of the country, or worse.

I hope I am dead wrong.

On Thu, 20 Jan 2022 09:46:12 -0800 (PST), Tiglath <temp6@tiglath.net>
wrote:

>Ancient soldiers ran fast to close in with the enemy to avoid on-coming missiles meant to soften their ranks with arrows, slingshots, javelins, catapults and other artillery. Modern armies and navies did the same before mounting an assault. The pounding was prelude to battle, and integral part of war.
>
>Technology has changed all that. The reverse side of the computer coin, is a new kind of artillery. Before real, conventional war starts, hackers pound the target with all kinds of explosive software. But curiously, it is not considered an act of war just because it's a sneak attack.
>
>Is there really a need to determine who is behind the cyber attacks on Ukraine?

Everybody does it. It's the new espionage. And the USA is up to its
nuts in it!
>
>Can the Kremlin's denials exempt them of culpability and free them from consequences? Yes.
>
>No need for Russia to deploy General Winter against its foes anymore. Just attack their power grid in January with cyber worms and viruses.
>
>Putin is no Trump, he is no dumb fuck wannabe dictator, but a chess master who knows how to exploit not only his opponent's weaknesses but also his strengths against itself.
>
>Having feathered his nest like nobody before for the last twenty years, Putin's only choice is to rule or die. Who knows what the next Russian dictator might do to him if he were to lose his leadership position. So far he has been terribly successful. Obama was no match. And I fear nobody is at this moment.

Of course that sort of problem didn't arise in the old days because
the Czars kept it all in the family. Bring back the Czars!
>
>Russia learned in Afghanistan that outright invasion is not what it used to be. But it has other ways. Like they did in Georgia, they encourage local minority factions that favor Russia to take the initiative and start the violence, and when the majority counter-attacks, Russia rushes in to support the underdog and 'make peace.' Expect something along these lines in Ukraine.

Yes. like Bismarck in the 1860s, contriving 4 wars to unite Germany.
An old trick. Perhaps Putin can make Ukraine the aggressor?
>
>Timing is great, because the EU and the US are reeling from the pandemic and disunity. Putin senses they, again, don't have the inclination for a hot war on top of things, because if leave principle out, the cost-benefit analysis of an intervention is less than enticing.

Just like Frederick the Great who saw Austria wallowing in a disputed
succession. Gobbled up Silesia he did.

>Ukraine may well soon lose another slice of the country, or worse.
>
>I hope I am dead wrong.

Why is the USA meddling in East European politics? Let Russia take
Ukraine that was hers since Catherine II.

On Fri, 21 Jan 2022 07:36:32 +1100, Peter Jason wrote:

>>Ukraine may well soon lose another slice of the country, or worse.
>>
>>I hope I am dead wrong.
>
> Why is the USA meddling in East European politics? Let Russia take
> Ukraine that was hers since Catherine II.

I doubt Russia wants to take Ukraine, but if it did, it is not vital to the
West. I would say that Trump was right. Let Russia have a chunk and use
that to guarantee the rest.

Taiwan may be a different story.

On Fri, 21 Jan 2022 08:45:59 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

> The essential problem is that Putin wants all of Ukraine not just a
> slice but is wanting it without war or Western sanctions.

I am not so sure. There is no pot of gold for Russia in the Ukraine. What
he certainly wants is to keep NATO out.

On Thu, 20 Jan 2022 09:46:12 -0800 (PST), Tiglath wrote:

> Ancient soldiers ran fast to close in with the enemy to avoid on-coming missiles meant to soften their ranks with arrows, slingshots, javelins, catapults and other artillery. Modern armies and navies did the same before mounting an assault. The pounding was prelude to battle, and integral part of war.
>
> Technology has changed all that. The reverse side of the computer coin, is a new kind of artillery. Before real, conventional war starts, hackers pound the target with all kinds of explosive software. But curiously, it is not considered an act of war just because it's a sneak attack.
>
> Is there really a need to determine who is behind the cyber attacks on Ukraine?
>
> Can the Kremlin's denials exempt them of culpability and free them from consequences? Yes.
>
> No need for Russia to deploy General Winter against its foes anymore. Just attack their power grid in January with cyber worms and viruses.
>
> Putin is no Trump, he is no dumb fuck wannabe dictator, but a chess master who knows how to exploit not only his opponent's weaknesses but also his strengths against itself.
>
> Having feathered his nest like nobody before for the last twenty years, Putin's only choice is to rule or die. Who knows what the next Russian dictator might do to him if he were to lose his leadership position. So far he has been terribly successful. Obama was no match. And I fear nobody is at this moment.
>
> Russia learned in Afghanistan that outright invasion is not what it used to be. But it has other ways. Like they did in Georgia, they encourage local minority factions that favor Russia to take the initiative and start the violence, and when the majority counter-attacks, Russia rushes in to support the underdog and 'make peace.' Expect something along these lines in Ukraine.
>
> Timing is great, because the EU and the US are reeling from the pandemic and disunity. Putin senses they, again, don't have the inclination for a hot war on top of things, because if leave principle out, the cost-benefit analysis of an intervention is less than enticing.
>
> Ukraine may well soon lose another slice of the country, or worse.
>
> I hope I am dead wrong.

I interpret this as despite what you say Biden is continuing Trump policy
in the Ukraine.

He will accept some changes to keep the Ukraine free, and
he does not want to go to war over this issue.

https://7news.com.au/politics/ukraine-allies-unite-after-biden-gaffe-c-5387294

On 1/22/2022 9:23 PM, The Horny Goat wrote:
> On Sun, 23 Jan 2022 13:17:20 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 21 Jan 2022 08:45:59 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:
>>
>>> The essential problem is that Putin wants all of Ukraine not just a
>>> slice but is wanting it without war or Western sanctions.
>>
>> I am not so sure. There is no pot of gold for Russia in the Ukraine.
>> What he certainly wants is to keep NATO out.
>
> I dunno - there certainly wasn't any pot of gold (or oil) in the
> Crimea either. In the eastern Ukraine there were a lot of steel mills
> and other industrial plants.

Well, what they got is pretty close to
a "pot of gold (or oil)".

They have always VERY MUCH desired a permanent
warm water port. Crimea is that, and it already
has large military support infrastructure in place.

---------------
from the web
bout 87,100,000 search results

Russia needed a warm water port to have a well rounded economy like
China or America. As the Russian empire expanded to the East, it would
also push down into Central Asia towards the sea, in a search for warm
water ports. Russia's Czar Ivan III (1462-1505) had warred to unify
Russia and to break free of the Mongol yoke.
www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/warm-water-port.htm
The Russian Quest for Warm Water Ports

www.globalsecurity.org › warm-water-portThe Russian Quest for Warm Water
Ports
Apr 14, 2018 · Russia needed a warm water port to have a well rounded
economy like China or America. As the Russian empire expanded to the
East, it would also push down into Central Asia towards the sea, in a...

www.worldatlas.com › russia-s-warm-water-portRussia's Warm Water Port -
WorldAtlas
Russia is the world's largest nation. Its territory stretches from above
the Arctic Circle in the far north to the Black Sea and Caucasus
Mountains in the south. Russia at its westernmost point borders Norway.
At its easternmost point, it is across the Bering Strait from the US
state of Alaska. There are a variety of landforms in this vast nation,
ranging from boreal forests and tundra to high mountains, vast plains,
and wetlands. There are a variety of climates in Russia as a result.
Humid continental and subarctic are the dominant climates in Russia.
However, Russia does have a region with a humid subtropical climate
along its Black Sea coast.
See full list on worldatlas.com

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www.jstor.org › stable › 44642451The Historic Russian Drive for a Warm
Water Port: Anatomy of ...
Union possessed an urge, one that it had inherited from Imperial Russia,
for a warm water port. In the post-war period, the notion of a Soviet
drive for a warm water port again underwent a decline in the West. But
with the appearance of a Soviet blue-water fleet in the 1960s and the
growth of Soviet intervention in Third

sofrep.com › news › russias-ever-elusive-warm-waterRussia's Ever-Elusive
Warm-Water Quest | SOFREP
Dec 26, 2014 · For as long as history has included naval military power,
Russia has been on a quest to “reach the warm sea.” Something most
Western nations take for granted, the presence of a port that doesn’t...

www.airuniversity.af.edu › Portals › 10Why Are Warm-­Water Ports
Important to Russian Security?
Lastly, because of Russia’s geographical limitations, the research de
facto chooses two of its only naturally occurring warm-water ports.
Novorossiysk in the Black Sea was excluded from the analysis because it
is primarily an economic port hous - ing only part of the Black Sea
Fleet (BSF), while Vladivostok in the Far East is

gulfnews.com › opinion › op-edsRussia’s play in Syria will give it
access to a warm water port
Jan 04, 2017 · Russia’s play in Syria will give it access to a warm
water port | Op-eds – Gulf News Russia’s play in Syria will give it
access to a warm water port Its leaders for centuries have sought access
to...

prezi.com › russias-struggle-for-warm-water-portsRussia's Struggle for
Warm Water Ports by History Project
May 27, 2014 · Peter the Great was one of the most influential leaders
for Russia's port system. When Peter I (Peter the Great) took charge of
Russia, his ultimate goal was to expand Russia’s borders and
conclusively gain warm water ports for Russia. In 1696 Peter captured
Azov, an Ottoman fortress near the Black Sea. Murmansk

www.quora.com › Why-does-Russia-want-a-warm-water-portWhy does Russia
want a warm water port? - Quora
Because they are available year-round, warm water ports can be of great
geopolitical or economic interest, with the ports of Saint Petersburg
and Valdez being notable examples. Russia needed a