From The Tightwad Gazette, Sept. 1995:

"...In strictly economic terms, gambling (at a casino) is a much better deal...though I don't endorse this either...casinos typically return 90 to 95 percent of the money that's gambled back to customers in the form of winnings...lotteries generally return 55 to 60 percent.

"But second, and more importantly, playing the lottery fosters the subconscious attitude that your financial success is beyond your control...that the only way you can succeed is through luck.

"I strongly believe that we have about 95% control over our financial destinies. The other 5% is those completely unpredictable events such as when a plane falls on your house and your insurance has a no-planes-falling-on-your-house clause. But overall, we have a huge ability to direct the outcome of our own lives. NOT playing the lottery reinforces this positive belief and helps us act on it.

"Winning the financial game through 'playing tightwaddery' means making small decisions every day that snowball into huge savings over years or decades. I have known several frugal people with modest incomes who have achieved financial independence before the typical retirement age. It's not glamorous, but it's practically a sure thing."

On Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 3:39:49 PM UTC-4, Louis Epstein wrote:
> Thomas Joseph <jazee...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 12:57:18?AM UTC-4, Louis Epstein wrote:
> >> The recent Powerball jackpot did not reach record territory that
> >> would lead me to start a thread for it,but at approximately
> >> $1,079,800,000 annuitized value it was the third-highest in the
> >> history of that lottery,and was just won by a California ticketholder
> >> with 39 other ticketholders matching only the 5 regular numbers but
> >> not the Powerball...millions of others won lesser prizes or,for the
> >> most part,none whatsoever.
> >>
> >
> > You might think I'd be used to it by now, but I'm not - I am always
> > intrigued by how more and more people are sucked into playing
> > when the cash zooms to record breaking heights. It's as if they're
> > saying, "Hell no, I'm not buying a ticket to win only 10 million dollars,
> > I'm waiting for it to hit a billion or I'm not playing."
> I have a strict-as-possible rule of only ever buying if the
> jackpot is at an all-time record...every new jackpot record
> inoculates me against ever again wasting money buying a ticket
> for that little.The actual expectation value of a ticket is
> almost never as much as the cost,but the lower the jackpot
> the worse the disparity.
> > One of my mottos for life in general: "I want to hit the lottery
> > but I don't want to buy the ticket."
> There is one set of numbers I always play;
> every time it does not come up,and I have not bought a ticket,
> I come out ahead.

Yes, we discussed this before. It is very rare for me to play
the lottery, but I used to buy scratch offs now and then. Plus
every so often the pick 3. Notice how when it started it was
just once a day and then it went to twice? I always played the
same 3 numbers. But even if I didn't play for a year, if I bought
the paper I'd always try to remember to check to see if the
numbers came in. Every time they did not come in I felt like
a winner. I don't think I ever saw it come in. But I didn't always
check. Yes, I like your system. There is an odd aspect of
addiction to your method - like you can't simply NOT play - you
MUST play, but you have it rigged in such a way that allows
your to play only rarely, when the stakes are at a record high.
That's an interesting method.

On Tuesday, August 22, 2023 at 2:17:12 PM UTC-4, Lenona wrote:
> From The Tightwad Gazette, Sept. 1995:
>
> "...In strictly economic terms, gambling (at a casino) is a much better deal...though I don't endorse this either...casinos typically return 90 to 95 percent of the money that's gambled back to customers in the form of winnings...lotteries generally return 55 to 60 percent.
>
> "But second, and more importantly, playing the lottery fosters the subconscious attitude that your financial success is beyond your control...that the only way you can succeed is through luck.
>
> "I strongly believe that we have about 95% control over our financial destinies. The other 5% is those completely unpredictable events such as when a plane falls on your house and your insurance has a no-planes-falling-on-your-house clause. But overall, we have a huge ability to direct the outcome of our own lives. NOT playing the lottery reinforces this positive belief and helps us act on it.
>
> "Winning the financial game through 'playing tightwaddery' means making small decisions every day that snowball into huge savings over years or decades. I have known several frugal people with modest incomes who have achieved financial independence before the typical retirement age. It's not glamorous, but it's practically a sure thing."

I win every year in our football pool. But that's because I know
how the other players pick. They take a lot of high profile favorites.
I have a system. I take only 2 favorites out of a slate of 16 games.
I 'key' those favorites, meaning if they win I get two points instead
of just one for those games. All I need is a decent preponderance
of dogs to come through and I'm in the hunt. I won 3 times last
year. It's not a sure thing, of course. Also, I do not pick the two
favorites - I go every week with numbers 7 and 11 on the slate,
even if I hate the teams those numbers give me. I enjoy being
forced to take a few teams I would not otherwise take. On the
weeks I win the pool, the way I see it I don't so much win the
pool as the other players lose it (by taking too many favorites).
I can't wait for kickoff. And yes, I do realize there is mucho luck
involved. I used to think I was a great handicapper but over time
I realized there is probably no such thing. So I don't play the teams
so much as I play the slate.

Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> The recent Powerball jackpot did not reach record territory that
>>>>>>>>>> would lead me to start a thread for it,but at approximately
>>>>>>>>>> $1,079,800,000 annuitized value it was the third-highest in the
>>>>>>>>>> history of that lottery,and was just won by a California ticketholder
>>>>>>>>>> with 39 other ticketholders matching only the 5 regular numbers but
>>>>>>>>>> not the Powerball...millions of others won lesser prizes or,for the
>>>>>>>>>> most part,none whatsoever.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Tonight's Megamillions drawing was for a pot a little larger than
>>>>>>>>> that,and rolled over to an estimated $1,250,000,000 annuitized
>>>>>>>>> value for Friday (before about $600 million in taxes here).
>>>>>>>>> That's just $287 million short of the record for the game,so I
>>>>>>>>> may buy one ticket if it rolls again,though only certain if it
>>>>>>>>> rolls twice.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Draw day boost of $100 million (or about $50M after taxes)
>>>>>>>> makes it very likely a roll would be to a record.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Official estimate in the event of a rollover is annuitized
>>>>>>> $1,550,000,000 (a record) and this could in turn see a boost
>>>>>>> before Tuesday,so if no winner tonight(they forecast 35% of
>>>>>>> the number combinations will be bought) I expect to buy a
>>>>>>> $2 ticket tomorrow....provisional forecast is that 41.1% of
>>>>>>> combinations would be bought for a rolled-over Tuesday drawing,
>>>>>>> with forecast sales implying a boost to over $1,650,000,000
>>>>>>> despite the estimate...a reset pot generally has about 3% of
>>>>>>> combinations covered.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The rollover to a record has occurred,so I am reverting to my
>>>>>> traditional subject name for such occasions...the dreams of wealth
>>>>>> associated with the Friday draw have died,though 7 tickets won
>>>>>> $1 million and two $2 million,and those associated with
>>>>>> the Tuesday draw will almost all be dead Tuesday night.
>>>>
>>>> As the clock counts down to the extinction of those dreams tonight,
>>>> the draw day boost has been more modest than I'd thought...sales
>>>> estimate for tonight's draw lowered from $328.6M to $325.2M and
>>>> combination coverage from 41.1% to 40.7%...
>>>> the annuity estimate is up to $1,580,000,000 (just $6.4 million behind
>>>> the 2016 Powerball that was a record until January,and now further
>>>> ahead of the old record for Mega).
>>>>
>>>>>> Usamega's calculations for NY show the advertised annuity's
>>>>>> installments scaling from $23 million to $96 million pretax,
>>>>
>>>> last annuity would now be over $97M pretax...
>>>>
>>>>>> and $12 million to $50 million after-tax,totalling $808.6M...
>>>>
>>>> ...and barely $51M after-tax,total $824.2M.
>>>>
>>>>> Pretax,with the annuity over 29 years (first of 30 payments right
>>>>> off and 29 others annually) works out to about $100/minute...
>>>>> but $53/minute after taxes.
>>>>>
>>>>> I have my ticket.
>>>
>>> 2 + 0 = no prize,now to see if anyone else won
>>> or I buy again tomorrow morning.
>>
>> With a winner in Florida,my money is safe today,and from any
>> Mega jackpot this small in the future.
>
> Final sales figures had the annuity at $1602M (paid in 30 installments
> rising from $24M to $99M) pretax,$1010M aftertax(in Florida)...

It's time to reactivate this thread,
because if the Wednesday October 11th
Powerball jackpot estimated at $1725M pretax
annuity,$756.6M pretax lump sum,rolls over
to Saturday,it could break the annuity record,
and if it then rolls over FROM Saturday
it definitely will.

>>>>>>>> (The aftertax lump value per Usamega.com is $343.6M here in NY
>>>>>>>> ($415.5M in states that don't tax lottery prizes) and the cost
>>>>>>>> of buying every possible number combination is over $600M so
>>>>>>>> the expectation value of a ticket is still under the cost).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The PRE-tax lump value for Tuesday in the event of a rollover is
>>>>>>> currently forecast at $757.2M (NOT a record,interest rates
>>>>>>> have changed the factors) compared to $659.5M tonight,the
>>>>>>> boost implied by the sales estimate would still leave it well
>>>>>>> shy of the lump record.
>>>>
>>>> the boost is to $783.3M pretax...
>>>>
>
> Final value $794.2M...

Note that the rising interest rates have let the
new PB annuity be higher than that Mega but
have a lower lump value.

>>>>>> ...with the aftertax lump being $394.5M,with states that don't
>>>>>> tax lottery prizes leaving the winner $477M after USA taxes.
>>>>
>>>> ...NY aftertax $408.1M,no-state-tax $493.5M.
>
> Florida being no-state-tax,$500.3M
>
>>>>>> So depending on location the expectation value of a ticket is
>>>>>> from under 2/3 to over 3/4 of the cost.
>>>>
>>>> Range now over 2/3 to over 4/5.
>>>>
>>>> The rollover-tonight estimate is $1800 million with $892.4M lump;
>>>> combination coverage is estimated as 43.3% for Friday's draw
>>>> if rolled,with $353M in sales for that draw.

The roll estimate from Wednesday will be revealed around
midday Wednesday...any predraw boosts will likely have
been made by then.

>>>>>>>>>> -=-=-
>>>>>>>>>> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
>>>>>>>>>> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> The recent Powerball jackpot did not reach record territory that
>>>>>>>>>>> would lead me to start a thread for it,but at approximately
>>>>>>>>>>> $1,079,800,000 annuitized value it was the third-highest in the
>>>>>>>>>>> history of that lottery,and was just won by a California ticketholder
>>>>>>>>>>> with 39 other ticketholders matching only the 5 regular numbers but
>>>>>>>>>>> not the Powerball...millions of others won lesser prizes or,for the
>>>>>>>>>>> most part,none whatsoever.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Tonight's Megamillions drawing was for a pot a little larger than
>>>>>>>>>> that,and rolled over to an estimated $1,250,000,000 annuitized
>>>>>>>>>> value for Friday (before about $600 million in taxes here).
>>>>>>>>>> That's just $287 million short of the record for the game,so I
>>>>>>>>>> may buy one ticket if it rolls again,though only certain if it
>>>>>>>>>> rolls twice.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Draw day boost of $100 million (or about $50M after taxes)
>>>>>>>>> makes it very likely a roll would be to a record.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Official estimate in the event of a rollover is annuitized
>>>>>>>> $1,550,000,000 (a record) and this could in turn see a boost
>>>>>>>> before Tuesday,so if no winner tonight(they forecast 35% of
>>>>>>>> the number combinations will be bought) I expect to buy a
>>>>>>>> $2 ticket tomorrow....provisional forecast is that 41.1% of
>>>>>>>> combinations would be bought for a rolled-over Tuesday drawing,
>>>>>>>> with forecast sales implying a boost to over $1,650,000,000
>>>>>>>> despite the estimate...a reset pot generally has about 3% of
>>>>>>>> combinations covered.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The rollover to a record has occurred,so I am reverting to my
>>>>>>> traditional subject name for such occasions...the dreams of wealth
>>>>>>> associated with the Friday draw have died,though 7 tickets won
>>>>>>> $1 million and two $2 million,and those associated with
>>>>>>> the Tuesday draw will almost all be dead Tuesday night.
>>>>>
>>>>> As the clock counts down to the extinction of those dreams tonight,
>>>>> the draw day boost has been more modest than I'd thought...sales
>>>>> estimate for tonight's draw lowered from $328.6M to $325.2M and
>>>>> combination coverage from 41.1% to 40.7%...
>>>>> the annuity estimate is up to $1,580,000,000 (just $6.4 million behind
>>>>> the 2016 Powerball that was a record until January,and now further
>>>>> ahead of the old record for Mega).
>>>>>
>>>>>>> Usamega's calculations for NY show the advertised annuity's
>>>>>>> installments scaling from $23 million to $96 million pretax,
>>>>>
>>>>> last annuity would now be over $97M pretax...
>>>>>
>>>>>>> and $12 million to $50 million after-tax,totalling $808.6M...
>>>>>
>>>>> ...and barely $51M after-tax,total $824.2M.
>>>>>
>>>>>> Pretax,with the annuity over 29 years (first of 30 payments right
>>>>>> off and 29 others annually) works out to about $100/minute...
>>>>>> but $53/minute after taxes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I have my ticket.
>>>>
>>>> 2 + 0 = no prize,now to see if anyone else won
>>>> or I buy again tomorrow morning.
>>>
>>> With a winner in Florida,my money is safe today,and from any
>>> Mega jackpot this small in the future.
>>
>> Final sales figures had the annuity at $1602M (paid in 30 installments
>> rising from $24M to $99M) pretax,$1010M aftertax(in Florida)...
>
> It's time to reactivate this thread,
> because if the Wednesday October 11th
> Powerball jackpot estimated at $1725M pretax
> annuity,$756.6M pretax lump sum,rolls over
> to Saturday,it could break the annuity record,
> and if it then rolls over FROM Saturday
> it definitely will.

There has been no draw-day boost at about 6 hours in advance
of the drawing.The potential rollover if no winner has been
set at $1920M with pretax lump $874.3M.
They are forecasting 33.6% chance of a winner tonight,and if
it rolls to Saturday,a 42.5% chance then based on estimated
sales of $323,176,252 in estimated sales for that 3-day draw
cycle (the other 2 cycles in a week are 2-day).

Without a pre-draw boost I will not buy a ticket for a
Saturday rollover draw,but another rollover would take it
to record annuity territory and I would buy.Yet another
would likely be needed for record lump territory.

>>>>>>>>> (The aftertax lump value per Usamega.com is $343.6M here in NY
>>>>>>>>> ($415.5M in states that don't tax lottery prizes) and the cost
>>>>>>>>> of buying every possible number combination is over $600M so
>>>>>>>>> the expectation value of a ticket is still under the cost).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The PRE-tax lump value for Tuesday in the event of a rollover is
>>>>>>>> currently forecast at $757.2M (NOT a record,interest rates
>>>>>>>> have changed the factors) compared to $659.5M tonight,the
>>>>>>>> boost implied by the sales estimate would still leave it well
>>>>>>>> shy of the lump record.
>>>>>
>>>>> the boost is to $783.3M pretax...
>>>>>
>>
>> Final value $794.2M...
>
> Note that the rising interest rates have let the
> new PB annuity be higher than that Mega but
> have a lower lump value.
>
>>>>>>> ...with the aftertax lump being $394.5M,with states that don't
>>>>>>> tax lottery prizes leaving the winner $477M after USA taxes.
>>>>>
>>>>> ...NY aftertax $408.1M,no-state-tax $493.5M.
>>
>> Florida being no-state-tax,$500.3M
>>
>>>>>>> So depending on location the expectation value of a ticket is
>>>>>>> from under 2/3 to over 3/4 of the cost.
>>>>>
>>>>> Range now over 2/3 to over 4/5.
>>>>>
>>>>> The rollover-tonight estimate is $1800 million with $892.4M lump;
>>>>> combination coverage is estimated as 43.3% for Friday's draw
>>>>> if rolled,with $353M in sales for that draw.
>
> The roll estimate from Wednesday will be revealed around
> midday Wednesday...any predraw boosts will likely have
> been made by then.
>
>>>>>>>>>>> -=-=-
>>>>>>>>>>> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
>>>>>>>>>>> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

I enjoy your obsession with the lottery. I picture a guy (not
necessarily you) who never plays the lottery and even tends
toward hating it to the core. Yet every hour of every waking
day is devoted to analyzing and studying the lottery from all
angles - until one day the man who hates the lottery more than
anyone who ever lived manages through his vast studies to
come up with the first ever can't lost lottery system. He could
use the system himself. He choose to sell it to others instead.
Almost gives them away at first. But then as his popularity
soars so do does his price, resulting ultimately in him being
many times more wealthy than the guy who hit with his first
winning ticket. Your obsession can be taken into all realms,
like a guy who is terrified of dying but spends all his time
reading about death, or a guy on a strict vegan diet who
surrounds himself with a hoarder's dream of gourmet food
magazines.

Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@main.lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> Louis Epstein <le@lekno.ws> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> The recent Powerball jackpot did not reach record territory that
>>>>>>>>>>>> would lead me to start a thread for it,but at approximately
>>>>>>>>>>>> $1,079,800,000 annuitized value it was the third-highest in the
>>>>>>>>>>>> history of that lottery,and was just won by a California ticketholder
>>>>>>>>>>>> with 39 other ticketholders matching only the 5 regular numbers but
>>>>>>>>>>>> not the Powerball...millions of others won lesser prizes or,for the
>>>>>>>>>>>> most part,none whatsoever.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Tonight's Megamillions drawing was for a pot a little larger than
>>>>>>>>>>> that,and rolled over to an estimated $1,250,000,000 annuitized
>>>>>>>>>>> value for Friday (before about $600 million in taxes here).
>>>>>>>>>>> That's just $287 million short of the record for the game,so I
>>>>>>>>>>> may buy one ticket if it rolls again,though only certain if it
>>>>>>>>>>> rolls twice.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Draw day boost of $100 million (or about $50M after taxes)
>>>>>>>>>> makes it very likely a roll would be to a record.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Official estimate in the event of a rollover is annuitized
>>>>>>>>> $1,550,000,000 (a record) and this could in turn see a boost
>>>>>>>>> before Tuesday,so if no winner tonight(they forecast 35% of
>>>>>>>>> the number combinations will be bought) I expect to buy a
>>>>>>>>> $2 ticket tomorrow....provisional forecast is that 41.1% of
>>>>>>>>> combinations would be bought for a rolled-over Tuesday drawing,
>>>>>>>>> with forecast sales implying a boost to over $1,650,000,000
>>>>>>>>> despite the estimate...a reset pot generally has about 3% of
>>>>>>>>> combinations covered.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The rollover to a record has occurred,so I am reverting to my
>>>>>>>> traditional subject name for such occasions...the dreams of wealth
>>>>>>>> associated with the Friday draw have died,though 7 tickets won
>>>>>>>> $1 million and two $2 million,and those associated with
>>>>>>>> the Tuesday draw will almost all be dead Tuesday night.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As the clock counts down to the extinction of those dreams tonight,
>>>>>> the draw day boost has been more modest than I'd thought...sales
>>>>>> estimate for tonight's draw lowered from $328.6M to $325.2M and
>>>>>> combination coverage from 41.1% to 40.7%...
>>>>>> the annuity estimate is up to $1,580,000,000 (just $6.4 million behind
>>>>>> the 2016 Powerball that was a record until January,and now further
>>>>>> ahead of the old record for Mega).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Usamega's calculations for NY show the advertised annuity's
>>>>>>>> installments scaling from $23 million to $96 million pretax,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> last annuity would now be over $97M pretax...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> and $12 million to $50 million after-tax,totalling $808.6M...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ...and barely $51M after-tax,total $824.2M.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Pretax,with the annuity over 29 years (first of 30 payments right
>>>>>>> off and 29 others annually) works out to about $100/minute...
>>>>>>> but $53/minute after taxes.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I have my ticket.
>>>>>
>>>>> 2 + 0 = no prize,now to see if anyone else won
>>>>> or I buy again tomorrow morning.
>>>>
>>>> With a winner in Florida,my money is safe today,and from any
>>>> Mega jackpot this small in the future.
>>>
>>> Final sales figures had the annuity at $1602M (paid in 30 installments
>>> rising from $24M to $99M) pretax,$1010M aftertax(in Florida)...
>>
>> It's time to reactivate this thread,
>> because if the Wednesday October 11th
>> Powerball jackpot estimated at $1725M pretax
>> annuity,$756.6M pretax lump sum,rolls over
>> to Saturday,it could break the annuity record,
>> and if it then rolls over FROM Saturday
>> it definitely will.
>
> There has been no draw-day boost at about 6 hours in advance
> of the drawing.The potential rollover if no winner has been
> set at $1920M with pretax lump $874.3M.
> They are forecasting 33.6% chance of a winner tonight,and if
> it rolls to Saturday,a 42.5% chance then based on estimated
> sales of $323,176,252 in estimated sales for that 3-day draw
> cycle (the other 2 cycles in a week are 2-day).
>
> Without a pre-draw boost I will not buy a ticket for a
> Saturday rollover draw,but another rollover would take it
> to record annuity territory and I would buy.Yet another
> would likely be needed for record lump territory.

There WAS a winner,in California,so my ticket-price of $2 is
no longer at risk for at least months to come.
Per Usamega.com:
The final annuity value was $1764.9M pretax,or $1,112,998,352
after tax,the payments scaling from $26M to $109M pretax
and $16M+ to $68M+ aftertax,
the final lump value $774.1M pretax and $487,720,045 aftertax.
>>>>>>>>>> (The aftertax lump value per Usamega.com is $343.6M here in NY
>>>>>>>>>> ($415.5M in states that don't tax lottery prizes) and the cost
>>>>>>>>>> of buying every possible number combination is over $600M so
>>>>>>>>>> the expectation value of a ticket is still under the cost).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The PRE-tax lump value for Tuesday in the event of a rollover is
>>>>>>>>> currently forecast at $757.2M (NOT a record,interest rates
>>>>>>>>> have changed the factors) compared to $659.5M tonight,the
>>>>>>>>> boost implied by the sales estimate would still leave it well
>>>>>>>>> shy of the lump record.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> the boost is to $783.3M pretax...
>>>>>>
>>>
>>> Final value $794.2M...
>>
>> Note that the rising interest rates have let the
>> new PB annuity be higher than that Mega but
>> have a lower lump value.
>>
>>>>>>>> ...with the aftertax lump being $394.5M,with states that don't
>>>>>>>> tax lottery prizes leaving the winner $477M after USA taxes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ...NY aftertax $408.1M,no-state-tax $493.5M.
>>>
>>> Florida being no-state-tax,$500.3M
>>>
>>>>>>>> So depending on location the expectation value of a ticket is
>>>>>>>> from under 2/3 to over 3/4 of the cost.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Range now over 2/3 to over 4/5.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The rollover-tonight estimate is $1800 million with $892.4M lump;
>>>>>> combination coverage is estimated as 43.3% for Friday's draw
>>>>>> if rolled,with $353M in sales for that draw.
>>
>> The roll estimate from Wednesday will be revealed around
>> midday Wednesday...any predraw boosts will likely have
>> been made by then.
>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> -=-=-
>>>>>>>>>>>> The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
>>>>>>>>>>>> at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.