Tensions across the Taiwan Strait intensified in 2021. China's military
flights into Taiwan's air-defense identification zone more than doubled
last year, and in the final days of December, Taipei and Beijing warned
each other against crossing any red lines.

Taiwan's Defense Ministry has said it is confident that it would be
difficult for China to pull off a full-scale invasion, and the US
Department of Defense's most recent report on China's military,
released in November, says China "appears willing to defer the use of
military force" against Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province,
as long as it thinks that unification can be negotiated and that the
costs of conflict outweigh the benefits.

But the Pentagon report, which covers developments in 2020, also
contains three charts that show defending Taiwan from such an invasion,
at least in a one-on-one fight, would be a daunting task.

China's military, known officially as the People's Liberation Army
(PLA), has a clear numerical advantage in troops, ships, and aircraft.
Those forces are improving as the PLA continues its modernization
efforts, and despite Taiwan embarking on its own military
modernization, China's advantage has only grown in recent years.

A growing imbalance

The charts, labeled "Taiwan Strait Military Balance," show the
estimated totals for China and Taiwan's ground, naval, and air forces.

They are divided into three categories: total PLA strength across its
five theater commands, the strength of Eastern and Southern theater
commands (which the report says are expected to play direct roles in an
invasion), and the total strength of Taiwan's military.

The Pentagon notes that the 2021 report "applies a new methodology" for
these charts that may lead to "significantly different numbers" than in
previous years but that they don't "necessarily reflect a sudden change
in capability."

The first chart, which covers the ground forces of both countries,
shows a total PLA strength of 1.04 million troops (10,000 more than in
2019), with 416,000 � 4,000 more than in 2019 � stationed in the
"Taiwan Strait Area," which the report says includes the Eastern and
Southern theater commands. By comparison, Taiwan's ground forces amount
to 88,000 active-duty personnel.

The PLA added 700 artillery pieces, increasing its total in the Taiwan
Strait area to 7,000. The PLA's 6,300 tanks is the same total as in
2019, as is Taiwan's total of 800 tanks.

China's navy vastly outnumbers Taiwan's, with many of its ships are
assigned to the Eastern and Southern theater navies.

Those theater navies have 21 of China's 32 destroyers, 41 of its 48
frigates, 33 of 56 diesel-powered attack subs, and four of six
nuclear-powered ballistic-missile subs. Those fleets also have 49 of
China's 57 medium landing ships and amphibious transport docks, as well
as one of China's two aircraft carriers.

By comparison, Taiwan's navy only has four destroyers, 22 frigates, and
two submarines. Taiwan has 23 Coast Guard ships in service, a fraction
of the Chinese Coast Guard's 223 ships.

China's air force (PLAAF) and naval aviation force added 100 fighters
in 2020. The PLAAF now has 700 fighters, 250 of its 450 bombers/attack
aircraft, and 100 of its 150 special-mission aircraft � such as
electronic-warfare, reconnaissance, cargo, and tanker planes �
stationed near Taiwan.

Taiwan's air force has 400 fighters, no bombers/attack aircraft, and 30
special-mission aircraft.

PLA modernization

The PLA's numbers are not the only source of concern. China's military
as a whole is modernizing and fast becoming a first-rate force.

The PLA's ground forces, marine corps, and airborne corps are
increasingly mechanized, boasting modern armored personnel carriers and
infantry fighting vehicles like the ZBD-04, ZBD-05, and ZBD-03. China's
armored force is now mostly comprised of modern tanks like the Type 96,
Type 99, and Type 15.

China's navy (PLAN) is "largely composed of modern multi-role
platforms," which feature modern electronics and vertical launch
systems (VLS) for missiles, according to the Pentagon.

The backbone of the Chinese surface fleet, the Type 054A-class frigate,
is armed with a 32-cell VLS, while the Type 052D-class destroyer
features 64 VLS cells.

The PLAN's newest addition, the Type 055 destroyer, has a total of 112
VLS cells; its sizable armament has led the US military to classify it
as a cruiser.

China's eight Type 071 landing platform docks and three Type 075
amphibious assault ships also represent a greater amphibious-assault
capability.

Of China's 1,800 fighter jets, 800 are considered fourth-generation,
and China has dozens of fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighters.

Those jets, which the US military says are eroding its "longstanding
and significant" advantages, also carry some of the longest-range
missiles in service in the world.

China's missile force is the largest and most diverse in the world, and
it can cover all of Taiwan, with Chinese navy ships able to fill in any
short-range gaps.

Taiwan's modernization

Taiwan is also modernizing its forces. Only able to buy military
equipment from the US, the island has announced $23 billion worth of
purchases since 2010 � more than $5 billion in 2020 alone.

Taiwan is replacing its old M60A3 and CM-11 tanks with 108 M1A2T main
battle tanks. It continues to field the indigenously developed Clouded
Leopard wheeled armored vehicle, and a new variant with a 105 mm cannon
is in the works.

Taiwan is also purchasing 11 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket
Systems and 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which, when added to its
own sizable missile arsenal, will enable long-range strikes against the
Chinese mainland and targets at sea.

In November, Taiwan announced that 66 of its 141 F-16s had been fully
upgraded to the F-16V standard, one of the most modern F-16 variants in
service. The remaining 75 fighters are expected to be upgraded by 2023,
when Taiwan will receive the first of 66 new F-16V Block 70 fighters.

More recently, in the first sale by the Biden administration, Taiwan
purchased 40 M-109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers and 1,698
Precision Guidance Kits, which convert artillery rounds into precision
munitions.

Taiwan also plans to build eight submarines. It began construction of
the first boat in November 2020 and hopes to have its first one
delivered by 2025.

While Taiwan's military may be outnumbered by the PLA, Taipei likely
won't have to face an invasion alone.

The US has not directly committed to Taiwan's defense, but in recent
months US officials have repeatedly indicated that it would support the
island if it was attacked.

Japan has also indicated that it's preparing to back up the US and
Taiwan in such a contingency, as has Australia, which is also
increasing its defense capability as a direct response to China's
military expansion.

--
Let's go Brandon!