On 11/14/22 4:42 AM, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> It should be clear by now that China intends to reunify

"Conquer"

with Taiwan as Xi has demonstrated his impatience with what he and
others in China view as a break-away province. As much as the people of
China may believe the government rules with a heavy and often brutal
hand, the people of China appear to side with the PRC's government over
Taiwan. They view Taiwan as a part of China which should be ruled by
China. Business and family ties across the Taiwan Strait ensure there is
no option for a divorce, if you will, between China and Taiwan. Yet, it
should also be clear that Taiwan has no intention of submitting to
China's notion of authority over Taiwan.
>
> There seems to be no evidence of a realistic opportunity for China and Taiwan to agree on a scenario wherein Taiwan would accept Chinese rule over Taiwan.

No - so China is going to KILL them en-masse. Think Ukraine
looked nasty ? Well ...

In just this year, there have been far more acts of militarized
provocation and similarly oriented response or defiance than there has
been dialogue designed to defuse tensions between China and Taiwan.
>
> China's military modernization continues unabated and there's little doubt in my mind as to the overriding motivations for China's military buildup. It's not JUST Taiwan but Taiwan is a MAJOR factor in China's military strategy.
>
> I, of course, have no way to prove it and I could be very wrong in my analysis but nevertheless believe China is preparing for war or the capability to fight a war, even with the U.S., especially over Taiwan, however also over China's intent to dominate commerce through the SCS using militarized artificial islands and severely limit U.S. ability to compete with China in Asian markets. This, ultimately, is about China's plan to become the World's greatest economic then military power -- a long term plan to which the PRC has been dedicated for many years. But, for China, there will not be ultimate success without reunification of China and Taiwan.
>
> Over Taiwan, China believes it has waited long enough and U.S. naval assets sailing through the SCS will not deter China who most likely has already decided its strategy for reunification with Taiwan.
>
> I believe it's probable China's plan is to take Taiwan by force in late 2024, just before general elections in the U.S. and after the next presidential election in Taiwan, the latter which I expect will indicate to China Taiwan will not reunify with China voluntarily. China will depend on the U.S. being distracted or consumed by political turmoil wrapped up in the primaries and general elections of that year.

Now would have been a good time too - but Xi had JUST been
anointed as God-Emperor, hadn't had all his detractors
dragged away quite yet. Maybe he wasn't ready.

Of course there were touching vids today of Good Ole' Joe
giving Xi a big hug at G20 .... I wonder if he put a little
package for his buddy Hunter into Joe's pocket at the same
time ......

The other day, Xi said that China's #1 job right now
was to "prepare for war". I doubt that's limited to
Taiwan. If China makes a grab it needs to make a
fairly large grab, create a big "security/buffer
zone to thwart anybody trying to supply Taiwan or
mount a counter-invasion. It has all those new
sea-forts, but they're spread out a bit too widely
yet. I could imagine them grabbing a couple of
those "disputed" islands between Taiwan and Japan
and it seems to have zero respect for Phillipine
territories as well.

To win Taiwan China has to abruptly ENTRENCH itself
in and around - too difficult to force back with
anything other than nukes. Xi's internal crackdowns
mean he can force "his people" to put up with any
western sanctions - and Putin and Iran will keep
the oil-supply topped off.

He can also loose his butt-buddy Kim - a HUGE
distraction (who he wouldn't mind seeing nuked
so long as he served his purpose for Xi).

Politically, Xi kinda HAS to take Taiwan now, he's
run his mouth for too long. It's going to be a HUGE
bloody stain and it's gonna be VERY difficult to
keep it from developing into a nuke war of some
scale.

I can see Kim luring in US/UK naval groups and
then dropping a nuke on the fleet - claiming they
were in NK waters (which might be true) or "about
to attack". A couple of carrier groups put out of
action would make it a LOT easier to move into
Taiwan with "our mutual security" as a thin excuse.
Meanwhile ... "It was *KIM* - not US !" would cover
Xi's ass.

The west, in it's current sociopolitical and economic
condition, is in NO WAY prepared to deal with Ukraine
AND Taiwan (and NK) all at the same time. Our resources
and will could be overwhelmed with the scale without
a single nuke exploding. IMHO, we'd stick with Ukraine,
Europe, and leave Taiwan to its fate.

Hmm ... if crappy little NK can make nukes ... could
Taiwan have a few also ??? That'd be very interesting ...

In fact, I expect China will do everything China can to make domestic
political disputes far worse than they otherwise would be. Particularly
if Russia has managed to gain the upper hand in its war with Ukraine,
China will assume there won't be much resolve from the U.S. to take on
China after spending a lot of money and directing a lot of resources
toward Ukraine. China additionally shall rely on the rise in America of
an "enough is enough" attitude which may occur, despite a scenario of
successes for Ukraine that could happen in 2023. So much more to China's
advantage would be a negative impact on economic conditions, if it
occurs, through 2023 and into 2024 which might add to political stress
in the U.S. Accordingly, it seems quite possible that China will
exacerbate domestic tensions in the U.S. in hope to discourage U.S.
resolve to help Taiwan when China moves to take it by force, and, if
that outcome could not be achieved, America would at least be distracted
or not adequately prepared to take on China militarily. Even with all of
this and even WITHOUT a recession or losses suffered in Ukraine as well
as under a turn of events where Russia and Cnina become military allies,
the possibility of nuclear war would be a strong deterrent against the
U.S. acting in Taiwan's defense.
>
> So, right or wrong, I see 2024 as the most likely year China will make its move. To the extent we can be, we should be aware and prepared.
>
> https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-chinese-fighter-jets-fly-island-93203140
>
> https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-belongs-taiwanese-president-says-fiery-pre-election-rebuff-china-2022-11-12/
>