Russia's defense ministry says its sea and air missiles have destroyed an
oil refinery and three fuel storage facilities near Ukraine’s southern
port city of Odessa.

The facilities, it said Sunday, were used by Ukraine to supply its troops
near the city of Mykolaiv.

“This morning, high-precision sea and air-based missiles destroyed an oil
refinery and three storage facilities for fuel and lubricants near the
city of Odessa, from which fuel was supplied to a group of Ukrainian
troops in the direction of Mykolaiv,” it said.

The strikes completely destroyed Kremenchug oil refinery, governor of
Poltava region Dmytro Lunin said on television.

“The fire at the refinery has been extinguished but the facility has been
completely destroyed and can no longer function,” Lunin said.

In a post on his Telegram channel, Ukrainian military official Vladislav
Nazarov said there were no casualties.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/04/03/679622/Missile-hit-Ukraine-Odessa-port

***

Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre, city strewn with bodies

BUCHA, Ukraine (AP) — Bodies with bound hands, close-range gunshot wounds
and signs of torture lay scattered in a city on the outskirts of Kyiv
after Russian soldiers withdrew from the area. Ukrainian authorities
accused the departing forces on Sunday of committing war crimes and
leaving behind a “scene from a horror movie.”

As images of the bodies — of people whom residents said were killed
indiscriminately — began to emerge from Bucha, a slew of European leaders
condemned the atrocities and called for tougher sanctions against Moscow..

Associated Press journalists saw the bodies of at least 21 people in
various spots around Bucha, northwest of the capital. One group of nine,
all in civilian clothes, were scattered around a site that residents said
Russian troops used as a base. They appeared to have been killed at close
range. At least two had their hands tied behind their backs, one was shot
in the head, another’s legs were bound.

But Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the photos and
videos of dead bodies “have been stage managed by the Kyiv regime for the
Western media.” It noted that Bucha’s mayor did not mention any abuses a
day after Russian troops left.

The ministry charged said “not a single civilian has faced any violent
action by the Russian military” in Bucha.

On Monday, April 4, 2022 at 1:28:54 AM UTC-5, slider wrote:
> Russia's defense ministry says its sea and air missiles have destroyed an
> oil refinery and three fuel storage facilities near Ukraine’s southern
> port city of Odessa.
>
> The facilities, it said Sunday, were used by Ukraine to supply its troops
> near the city of Mykolaiv.
>
> “This morning, high-precision sea and air-based missiles destroyed an oil
> refinery and three storage facilities for fuel and lubricants near the
> city of Odessa, from which fuel was supplied to a group of Ukrainian
> troops in the direction of Mykolaiv,” it said.
>
> The strikes completely destroyed Kremenchug oil refinery, governor of
> Poltava region Dmytro Lunin said on television.
>
> “The fire at the refinery has been extinguished but the facility has been
> completely destroyed and can no longer function,” Lunin said.
>
> In a post on his Telegram channel, Ukrainian military official Vladislav
> Nazarov said there were no casualties.
>
> https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/04/03/679622/Missile-hit-Ukraine-Odessa-port
>
> ***
>
> Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre, city strewn with bodies
>
> BUCHA, Ukraine (AP) — Bodies with bound hands, close-range gunshot wounds
> and signs of torture lay scattered in a city on the outskirts of Kyiv
> after Russian soldiers withdrew from the area. Ukrainian authorities
> accused the departing forces on Sunday of committing war crimes and
> leaving behind a “scene from a horror movie.”
>
> As images of the bodies — of people whom residents said were killed
> indiscriminately — began to emerge from Bucha, a slew of European leaders
> condemned the atrocities and called for tougher sanctions against Moscow.
>
> Associated Press journalists saw the bodies of at least 21 people in
> various spots around Bucha, northwest of the capital. One group of nine,
> all in civilian clothes, were scattered around a site that residents said
> Russian troops used as a base. They appeared to have been killed at close
> range. At least two had their hands tied behind their backs, one was shot
> in the head, another’s legs were bound.
>
> But Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the photos and
> videos of dead bodies “have been stage managed by the Kyiv regime for the
> Western media.” It noted that Bucha’s mayor did not mention any abuses a
> day after Russian troops left.
>
> The ministry charged said “not a single civilian has faced any violent
> action by the Russian military” in Bucha.

ANALYSIS—UKRAINE—RUSSIA

Most important statements of Russia|n military campaign were made on the battlefield and will continue to be made there, not by the diplomats, like Medinsky, or even hawks, like Kadyrov. They will continue to be made by the military.

If we consider military realities of the conflict, from its outset, without distractions in form of political statements or personal wishes, the following emerges: Russia entered into this conflict with—at the most optimistic count—a military grouping of no more than 190k.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508875144952958986.html

This was considerably less than the combined armed forces of Ukraine, which outnumbered the RF forces by as much as 100k at the outset of the conflict.. To date, as a result of the campaign, Ukraine|ian forces outside of Donbass have been reduced to an infantry force.

Gone is the vast bulk of Ukraine’s armoured vehicle arsenal. As of March 27, 529 tanks and 1177 armoured vehicles (IFVs and APCs) had been destroyed. Gone are UA’s airforce and navy. The personnel losses of UA forces are estimated at over 16k KIA and 14k WIA.

Ukraine’s air defence apparatus has equally been turned to rubble. Over 160 command & communications/radar installations have been destroyed. Over 160 long range and over 40 short range air defence vehicles have been eliminated. Russia|n airforce flies sorties unimpeded.

Ukraine continues to possess a sizeable MLRS and artillery force, which is protected by the human shield of the cities’ residential areas, where its elimination is problematic in view of Russia’s announced (and strictly adhered to) policy of minimizing civilian casualties.

Severe shortage of operational armoured vehicles is indirectly indicated by Zelensky’s appeal to NATO countries to donate 1% of their tanks to Ukraine’s war effort and visible in failed raids from Nikolayev to Kherson to shell civilians under guise of fighting Russia.

There is not a single indication of significant armoured assaults or counterattacks and Ukraine’s failed raids from Nikolayev were characterized by the presence of unprotected MLRS and artillery units contrasted against glaring absence of adequate armoured vehicle support.

Overall, Ukraine’s army has been almost completely immobilized—in the east, in Donbass, due to fear and inability to abandon reinforced positions in the face of Russia|n air dominance and surging offensives to the north and to the south, as the cauldron is closing shut.

In the south, due to the overwhelming success of Russia|n offensive that pushed Ukraine|ian resistance into interior, away from border with Crimea. In the north, due to RF forces threatening each of the major cities, blockading them, and shutting Ukraine|ian forces in.

It is becoming clear that, from the beginning, two possible scenarios were foreseen by Russia|n military command: The success of the initial surprise blitzkrieg and the drawn-out methodical elimination of the Ukraine|ian military capabilities. Both scenarios materialized.

In the south, in Kherson and parts of Zaporozhye regions, the rapid surge of Russia|n forces from Crimea (admittedly, the best equipped
and prepared) succeeded almost entirely, until Ukraine|ian resistance was localized north of Kherson, in Nikolayev and Zaporozhye.

In the north, as stated earlier, Russia|n forces flowed around major cities, effectively cutting off Sumy, Akhtyrka, & Chernigov and shutting defending Ukraine|ian forces in them. Near Kiev, Russia identified its presence and presented a real threat of encircling it.

Clear & present threat of complete encirclement and blockade of Ukraine|ian capital was created with insufficient (according to military doctrine) forces to surround a city of 4 million, where, even now, over 2 million civilians remain. And yet, Ukraine could do nothing.

Near Kharkov, once again, a group of units clearly insufficient to completely encircle the city, was able to take it into a horseshoe formation, bind and pin the defenders of the city, preventing any adventurism from them in terms of assisting the Donbass UA forces.

Russia|n army flowed around Kharkov, cutting it off from Ukraine’s Donbass group by taking Izyum, and proceeded into a difficult offensive south, to cut off the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk group’s supply and communications with UA’s interior and to complete the cauldron.

What succeeded in the south, in Kherson and parts of Zaporozhye regions was rapid blitzkrieg. What materialized in the north was the binding & pinning of Ukraine’s army & creating constant threats that made it impossible for UA to redirect forces to assist in Donbass.

What is taking place in Mariupol, Maryinka, Avdeevka, and south of Izyum, as well as Rubezhnoye/Severodonetsk/Lisichansk—and what took place earlier in Volnovakha—is the methodical grinding down & elimination of Ukraine’s best equipped and battle-hardened forces.
Completion of Donbass cauldron is now near at hand, and fighting is becoming increasingly more fierce and brutal.

Even originally Russia|n forces were severely outnumbered in Ukraine, and it has become clear now that a decision has been made to limit their numbers..

As indicated by the majority of military analysts covering the conflict, operations in the north & the south were part of 1st phase of the campaign intended to create operational freedom for Russia|n forces to complete the Donbass cauldron (after Mariupol’s liberation)

With this task now closer to completion, and UA resistance increasing exponentially as the cauldron is closing shut, 2nd phase of campaign no longer requires (nor can afford, in view of the lack of numerical advantage) such extensive operations in the north and the south.

Russia has created reinforced positions near Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, and Kharkov in the north, which can now be defended with fewer forces and still present clear and present danger pinning the defenders in these cities. The south (Kherson) is even better defended.

Mariupol’s liberation is close to completion. These forces, with invaluable experience fighting some of Ukraine’s best in possibly most difficult conditions since Stalingrad, will be freed up to focus on Donbass cauldron where Ukraine’s biggest group will be trapped.

Similarly, troops no longer necessary in the north & the south, where fewer units will be sufficient for maintaining the status quo during the 2nd phase of the operation, will be transferred to the Donbass theatre. Finally, reserves have been built up in RF for rotation.

The reserves in RF (larger than all Russia|n troops currently in UA) have been remarked on by Ukraine|ian & Western sources & are entirely counter to any idea that operation in Ukraine is being limited, let alone coming to an end. Simply, 2nd phase is about to start.

Russia was unwilling to commit overwhelming forces to operation in Ukraine from the beginning. This is an exceedingly lean, and, its leanness, exceedingly successful operation. The 2nd phase will involve the elimination of the Donbass cauldron of Ukraine|ian forces.

The clear hope of RF command is that success on this front will spell the final collapse of the Ukraine|ian military machine, with cascades effects on the rest of UA defenders, just as the economy of the country continues to crumble from the overwhelming pressure on it.

In war, there is no guarantee, except one: Do not watch the ball of negotiations being passed back & forth, watch military operations on the ground. Even Medinsky said today that de-escalation near Kiev does not mean the termination of the operations. Quite the contrary.

What happens in the 3rd phase of the operation is really only up to the Russia|n military and political command and to Ukraine|ian regime's resolve to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian. Let's hope it does not come to that. But I see no chance of Russia pulling back now.