Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States
warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons
systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could
bring “unpredictable consequences.”

The diplomatic démarche, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington
Post, came as President Biden approved a dramatic expansion in the scope
of weapons being provided to Ukraine, an $800 million package including
155 mm Howitzers — a serious upgrade in long-range artillery to match
Russian systems — coastal defense drones and armored vehicles, as well as
additional portable anti-air and antitank weapons and millions of rounds
of ammunition.

The United States has also facilitated the shipment to Ukraine of
long-range air defense systems, including Slovakia’s shipment of
Russian-manufactured Soviet-era S-300 launchers on which Ukrainian forces
have already been trained. In exchange, the administration announced last
week, the United States is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia
and consulting with Slovakia on a long-term replacement.

Shipment of the weapons, the first wave of which U.S. officials said would
arrive in Ukraine within days, follows an urgent appeal to Biden from
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Russian forces were said to be
mobilizing for a major assault on eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and
along the coastal strip connecting it with Russian-occupied Crimea in the
south.

The State Department declined to comment on the contents of the two-page
diplomatic note or any U.S. response.

Russia experts suggested Moscow, which has labeled weapons convoys coming
into the country as legitimate military targets but has not thus far
attacked them, may be preparing to do so.

“They have targeted supply depots in Ukraine itself, where some of these
supplies have been stored,” said George Beebe, former director of Russia
analysis at the CIA and Russia adviser to former vice president Dick
Cheney. “The real question is do they go beyond attempting to target [the
weapons] on Ukrainian territory, try to hit the supply convoys themselves
and perhaps the NATO countries on the Ukrainian periphery” that serve as
transfer points for the U.S. supplies.

If Russian forces stumble in the next phase of the war as they did in the
first, “then I think the chances that Russia targets NATO supplies on NATO
territory go up considerably,” Beebe said. “There has been an assumption
on the part of a lot of us in the West that we could supply the Ukrainians
really without limits and not bear significant risk of retaliation from
Russia,” he said. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that
that’s not true.”

The diplomatic note was dated Tuesday, as word first leaked of the new
arms package that brought the total amount of U.S. military aid provided
to Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion to $3.2 billion, according to
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. In a public announcement Wednesday, Biden
said it would include “new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we
expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine.”

The document, titled “On Russia’s concerns in the context of massive
supplies of weapons and military equipment to the Kiev regime,” written in
Russian with a translation provided, was forwarded to the State Department
by the Russian Embassy in Washington.

The Russian embassy did not respond to requests for comment.

Among the items Russia identified as “most sensitive” were “multiple
launch rocket systems,” although the United States and its NATO allies are
not believed to have supplied those weapons to Ukraine. Russia accused the
allies of violating “rigorous principles” governing the transfer of
weapons to conflict zones, and of being oblivious to “the threat of
high-precision weapons falling into the hands of radical nationalists,
extremists and bandit forces in Ukraine.”

It accused NATO of trying to pressure Ukraine to “abandon” sputtering, and
so far unsuccessful, negotiations with Russia “in order to continue the
bloodshed.” Washington, it said, was pressuring other countries to stop
any military and technical cooperation with Russia, and those with
Soviet-era weapons to transfer them to Ukraine.

“We call on the United States and its allies to stop the irresponsible
militarization of Ukraine, which implies unpredictable consequences for
regional and international security,” the note said.

Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council director for Russian,
Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs, and now vice president for studies at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recalled that Russian
President Vladimir Putin, in a speech on the February morning the invasion
began, warned that Western nations would face “consequences greater than
any you have faced in history” if they became involved in the conflict.

Attention at the time focused on Putin’s reminder that Russia possesses a
powerful nuclear arsenal, Weiss said, but it was also “a very explicit
warning about not sending weapons into a conflict zone.” Having drawn a
red line, he asked, are the Russians “now inclined to back that up?”

Such an attack would be “a very important escalatory move, first and
foremost because it represents a threat to the West if they aren’t able to
keep supplies flowing into Ukraine, which by extension might diminish
Ukraine’s capacity for self-defense.” That risk “shouldn’t be downplayed,”
he said, noting the added risk that an attempt to strike a convoy inside
Ukraine could go awry over the border into NATO territory.

Senior U.S. defense officials remain concerned about the possibility of
such attacks. “We don’t take any movement of weapons and systems going
into Ukraine for granted,” Kirby said Thursday. “Not on any given day.”

Kirby said Ukrainian troops bring the weapons into Ukraine after the
United States brings them into the region, and “the less we say about
that, the better.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/

Always, no sometimes, think it's me
But you know I know when it's a dream
I think I know, I mean a... yes
But it's all wrong
That is, I think I disagree

Living is easy with eyes closed
Misunderstanding all you see
It's getting hard to be someone but it all works out
It doesn't matter much to me