Trump�s Inner Circle Braces for Disaster
BRACE FOR IMPACT

Some still believe a win is possible. But others are wrapping their head
around a Biden presidency and regretting the money they gave to Trump.
Asawin Suebsaeng

White House Reporter
Lachlan Markay

With just a few days left before Election Night and the president
trailing in numerous state and national polls, Donald Trump�s inner circle
is increasingly whispering the same thought: Our guy blew it.

A forecast of a Biden White House is not one they welcome. But it�s one
many of them have come to finally accept after a year of coronavirus
deaths, economic devastation, and racial and civil unrest have throttled
an administration run by a man they believe has failed to rise to the
occasion, even on just a purely messaging front.

�I believe the betting markets, which say there�s a 60 percent chance that
Biden wins, and a 40 percent chance that Trump does,� Stephen Moore, a
conservative economist who advises President Trump on economic and COVID-
19-related matters, said in an interview Thursday.

Explaining his pessimism, Moore cited several factors, including the
still-rising cases of the virus in certain parts of the United States.

Moore said he had hoped that the Gross Domestic Product report that came
out on Thursday would have given the president�s campaign a boost. He even
recalled visiting the White House last month, during which he told the
president that the report was �going to be a real �October surprise,��
that he could �really play� up for the voters,� and that the two of them
then brainstormed ways to aggressively promote the coming numbers.

But shortly after the positive-looking report came out on Thursday�showing
that the economy grew at a 33.1 percent annual rate last quarter�Moore
found it hard to muster optimism about the political benefits of it. �I
really don�t have a good feeling about this,� he conceded.

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Were Moore alone in his skepticism, it could be written off as the
superstitious, cup-half-empty musings of an adviser who abjectly is
terrified of a Biden presidency. But he�s not alone. Out of the 16
knowledgeable and well-positioned sources across Trumpworld�campaign
aides, Republican donors, senior administration officials, and close
associates of the president and his family�whom The Daily Beast
interviewed for this story in the week leading up to Election Day 2020,
only five gave Trump comfortable odds at winning. Doug Deason, a high-
dollar Trump donor from Dallas, pegged Trump�s odds at �75 percent or
better,� for instance.

Six others were confident, to varying degrees, that President Trump would
be relegated to one-termer status. The remaining five gave him roughly
50/50 odds. Of those five, two�a White House official and a friend of the
president�s�started sounding increasingly pessimistic as the conversation
went on.
�The president has struggled to maintain message discipline. And the left
is highly motivated to vote, as seen by the record turnout so far. That�s
not to say there�s not a window for the president to win. It�s just being
realistic that he�s the underdog in this contest.�
� Dan Eberhart

Dan Eberhart, chief executive at Canary and another major Trump donor who
contributed $100,000 to Trump Victory this cycle, told The Daily Beast on
Thursday evening that if he could go back in time, he wouldn�t have given
a dime of that to the joint fundraising committee for the president�s re-
election.

�I think Trump has a 25 percent chance of winning the election. His
campaign focused on exciting his base not on pursuing people in the
center. COVID was a massive headwind that minimized the roaring Trump
economy,� Eberhart said. �The president has struggled to maintain message
discipline. And the left is highly motivated to vote, as seen by the
record turnout so far. That�s not to say there�s not a window for the
president to win. It�s just being realistic that he�s the underdog in this
contest.�

The businessman continued. �If I could redo my donations this cycle, I
would put it all on red again,� he said. �Honestly, I would have put all
my donations towards holding the Senate. I never thought the Senate would
be in play.�

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Eberhart doesn�t appear to be the only Trump donor with a bit of buyer�s
remorse. According to data provided by the Center for Responsive Politics,
of the more than 1,100 individuals who gave the $5,400 legal maximum to
Trump�s 2016 campaign (or who exceeded the maximum and had to be issued
refunds), about 450 of them have not donated a penny to the president�s
re-election campaign this cycle.

The president has far more donors this cycle of every donation range,
including those who�ve given the legal maximum, than he did during the
2016 campaign. But if each of those 450 donors had also maxed out to
Trump�s 2020 campaign, they would have provided a substantial $2.5 million
in additional funding.

And some high-dollar donors to Trump�s 2017 inauguration festivities
haven�t just stopped giving to the president altogether; they�re actively
bankrolling the Democratic opposition.

Reached for comment on Friday afternoon, Jason Miller, a top Trump adviser
on the campaign replied, �Mood is great. President Trump will be re-
elected. I don�t worry about the bedwetters too much.�

But other senior aides to Trump are also girding themselves for the
president�s fury over the election results. Three sources familiar with
the matter said Trump has repeatedly stressed how low of an opinion he has
of Biden as a candidate, and has said how deeply embarrassing it would be
for him if he managed to lose to him this year.

Aides and close associates who�ve spoken to the president in recent days
say that he has consistently argued behind closed doors that he is going
to emerge victorious, ignoring much of the available polling data and
declining to talk much, if at all, about what would happen if he didn�t.
Trump will regularly argue that it doesn�t even make sense that Biden
could win, when you look at his crowd sizes in the campaign�s closing
weeks versus Biden�s.

�If it were anyone else, I�d call it denial,� said one such associate.

Two Trump administration officials working on foreign policy told The
Daily Beast in the past week that they�re convinced the president will
lose, and have instead prioritized making it harder for a President Biden
to reverse their policy advancements�including with regards to re-entering
the Iran nuclear deal.

Still, there are those close to President Trump and in prominent GOP
circles who say they remain convinced that Trump will win in a walk,
pollsters and naysayers be damned.

�I say there�s a 70 percent he�s re-elected, and a 30 percent chance that
Biden wins,� said Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker and an outside
adviser to Trump. �I think most of the establishment polls are just plain
crazy. I think they�re done badly. I think they�re missing what�s actually
going on�[Trump] is clearly going to win the electoral college, but lose
the popular vote�[due to] Illinois, California, and New York.�