To: Leaders and citizens of the world

Re: At doom’s doorstep: It is 100 seconds to midnight

Date: January 20, 2022

Last year’s leadership change in the United States provided hope that what
seemed like a global race toward catastrophe might be halted and—with
renewed US engagement—even reversed. Indeed, in 2021 the new American
administration changed US policies in some ways that made the world safer:
agreeing to an extension of the New START arms control agreement and
beginning strategic stability talks with Russia; announcing that the
United States would seek to return to the Iran nuclear deal; and rejoining
the Paris climate accord. Perhaps even more heartening was the return of
science and evidence to US policy making in general, especially regarding
the COVID-19 pandemic. A more moderate and predictable approach to
leadership and the control of one of the two largest nuclear arsenals of
the world marked a welcome change from the previous four years.

Still, the change in US leadership alone was not enough to reverse
negative international security trends that had been long in developing
and continued across the threat horizon in 2021.

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

US relations with Russia and China remain tense, with all three countries
engaged in an array of nuclear modernization and expansion
efforts—including China’s apparent large-scale program to increase its
deployment of silo-based long-range nuclear missiles; the push by Russia,
China, and the United States to develop hypersonic missiles; and the
continued testing of anti-satellite weapons by many nations. If not
restrained, these efforts could mark the start of a dangerous new nuclear
arms race. Other nuclear concerns, including North Korea’s unconstrained
nuclear and missile expansion and the (as yet) unsuccessful attempts to
revive the Iran nuclear deal contribute to growing dangers. Ukraine
remains a potential flashpoint, and Russian troop deployments to the
Ukrainian border heighten day-to-day tensions.

For many countries, a huge gap still exists between long-term greenhouse
gas-reduction pledges and the near- and medium-term emission-reduction
actions needed to achieve those goals. Although the new US
administration’s quick return to the Paris Agreement speaks the right
words, it has yet to be matched with actionable policies.

Developed countries improved their responses to the continuing COVID-19
pandemic in 2021, but the worldwide response remained entirely
insufficient. Plans for quick global distribution of vaccines essentially
collapsed, leaving poorer countries largely unvaccinated and allowing new
variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to gain an unwelcome foothold. Beyond the
pandemic, worrying biosafety and biosecurity lapses made it clear that the
international community needs to focus serious attention on management of
the global biological research enterprise. Further, the establishment and
pursuit of biological weapons programs marked the beginning of a new
biological arms race.

And while the new US administration made progress in reestablishing the
role of science and evidence in public policy, corruption of the
information ecosystem continued apace in 2021. One particularly concerning
variety of internet-based disinformation infected America last year: Waves
of internet-enabled lies persuaded a significant portion of the US public
to believe the utterly false narrative contending that Joe Biden did not
win the US presidential election in 2020. Continued efforts to foster this
narrative threaten to undermine future US elections, American democracy in
general, and, therefore, the United States’ ability to lead global efforts
to manage existential risk.

In view of this mixed threat environment—with some positive developments
counteracted by worrisome and accelerating negative trends—the members of
the Science and Security Board find the world to be no safer than it was
last year at this time and therefore decide to set the Doomsday Clock once
again at 100 seconds to midnight. This decision does not, by any means,
suggest that the international security situation has stabilized. On the
contrary, the Clock remains the closest it has ever been to
civilization-ending apocalypse because the world remains stuck in an
extremely dangerous moment. In 2019 we called it the new abnormal, and it
has unfortunately persisted.

Last year, despite laudable efforts by some leaders and the public,
negative trends in nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and a
variety of disruptive technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted
information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making—kept the
world within a stone’s throw of apocalypse. Global leaders and the public
are not moving with anywhere near the speed or unity needed to prevent
disaster.

Leaders around the world must immediately commit themselves to renewed
cooperation in the many ways and venues available for reducing existential
risk. Citizens of the world can and should organize to demand that their
leaders do so—and quickly. The doorstep of doom is no place to loiter.

The nuclear tightrope

During 2021, some nuclear risks declined while others rose. Upcoming
decisions on nuclear policies could generate either salutary or dangerous
modifications of an already uncertain and worrisome security situation.

The February 2021 agreement between the United States and Russia to renew
New START for five years is a decidedly positive development. This
extension creates a window of opportunity to negotiate a future arms
control agreement between the two countries that possess 90 percent of the
nuclear weapons on the planet. The United States and Russia also agreed to
start two sets of dialogues about how to best maintain “nuclear stability”
in the future: the Working Group on Principles and Objectives for Future
Arms Control and the Working Group on Capabilities and Actions with
Strategic Effects. These groups have met and in early 2022 are expected to
report on initial results of the consultations, aimed at shaping future
arms control agreements.

Another bright spot was the Biden administration's announcements that it
would seek to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
with Iran and offer to enter strategic stability talks with China.
Although no talks between North Korea and the United States took place in
2021, the North Koreans have not resumed testing of nuclear weapons or
long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). (Tests of
shorter-range missiles have continued.) Finally, when the Biden
administration began its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process, it
announced that one specific goal would be to “reduce the role of nuclear
weapons” in US national security policy.

Other developments, however, appeared on the negative side of the ledger:

Iran continues to build an enriched uranium stockpile, insisting that all
sanctions be removed before returning to talks with the United States on
the JCPOA. The window of opportunity seems to be closing. Over time,
Iran's neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, may feel compelled to acquire
similar capabilities, foreshadowing the frightening possibility of a
Middle East with multiple countries with the expertise and material to
build nuclear weapons.

The Chinese have started to build new ICBM silos on a large scale, leading
to concerns that China may be considering a change in its nuclear
doctrine. China and Russia have both tested anti-satellite weapons
recently, increasing concerns about rapid escalation in any conventional
conflict with the United States. Efforts by all three countries to field
hypersonic missiles are beginning to yield results, intensifying
competition. While experts disagree on both the causes and the
consequences of these programs, they clearly mark the start of a new arms
competition.

The North Koreans continue to test nuclear-capable short- and medium-range
missiles, including cruise, ballistic, and glide vehicles, and there is
evidence of their restarting plutonium production. Meanwhile, there have
been no high-level negotiations between the United States and North Korea.
India and Pakistan continue to advance their nuclear, missile, and other
military capabilities with no diminution of possible flash points that
could lead to nuclear conflict.

As the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol demonstrated, no
country is immune from threats to its democracy, and in a state with
nuclear-weapons-usable material and nuclear weapons, both can be targets
for terrorists and fanatics. Notably, the insurrectionists came close to
capturing Vice President Mike Pence and the “nuclear football” that
accompanies the vice president as the backup system for nuclear launch
commands. More than 10 percent of those charged with crimes during the
January 6th insurrection were veterans or active service members. The
Pentagon has conducted a major review of extremism in the military and has
adopted new definitions of extremist activities in an attempt to reduce
this danger in the future. The seriousness of the problem is clear.

> To: Leaders and citizens of the world

what the fuck ever happened to evolution??
not god damn revolution but evolution.
surely there are scientific minds in Russia
what's with you peckerheads? god can't help you now.
actually god has never helped anyone.
take it up w/ chris hitchings when you get to the so called after life.
busy here boss burning the karma right out of my ass.
this job never gets done.
fuck it, tech support, flip the fandango.

>> To: Leaders and citizens of the world
>
> what the fuck ever happened to evolution??
> not god damn revolution but evolution.

### - it seems to have stalled? i.e., they's all looking to outer-space
when they actually need to look inner-space (inner-space is where the real
evolution/revolution is, always has been...)

> surely there are scientific minds in Russia
> what's with you peckerheads?

### - same peckerheads all over lol, russia/america/whatever, they's all
the same peckerheads just different accents; the west dreams of
domination, the russians of neutrality, but it's all the same shit really:
just a bunch of ideas in people's heads related to exclusively, and it
doesn't really seem to matter much what, anything will do...

> god can't help you now.
> actually god has never helped anyone.

### - he just likes to watch, apparently haha :)))

> take it up w/ chris hitchings when you get to the so called after life.

### - damn, sure hopes am goin' to a different afterlife than that dude
lol :D he fucked up bigtime but might come out in the end... it all
depends on whether he just breaks, or evolves (evolving is the long shot
remember)

> busy here boss burning the karma right out of my ass.
> this job never gets done.
> fuck it, tech support, flip the fandango.

### - wot, you actually expect things to ever get... done??

nah, nada ever gets done here matie, it's all about just doin' shit, no
beginnings and no ends either, just endless shit ya can always get
involved in anytime until ya gets bored with it, most of it completely
meaningless of course heh, although that not what peeps will say about
their treasured ideas while they's beatin' the shit outta ya haha...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQnW-MxAU6U

(could be wallyworld's global anthem?)

> ### - damn, sure hopes am goin' to a different afterlife than that dude
> lol :D he fucked up bigtime but might come out in the end... it all
> depends on whether he just breaks, or evolves (evolving is the long shot
> remember)
> > busy here boss burning the karma right out of my ass.
> > this job never gets done.
> > fuck it, tech support, flip the fandango.
> ### - wot, you actually expect things to ever get... done??
>
> nah, nada ever gets done here matie, it's all about just doin' shit, no
> beginnings and no ends either, just endless shit ya can always get
> involved in anytime until ya gets bored with it, most of it completely
> meaningless of course heh, although that not what peeps will say about
> their treasured ideas while they's beatin' the shit outta ya haha...)
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQnW-MxAU6U
>
> (could be wallyworld's global anthem?)

The Beatles - Glass Onion
https://youtu.be/aBQIAWh3YBs

Am 01.11.2022 um 00:51 schrieb chris rodgers:
>
>> To: Leaders and citizens of the world
>
> what the fuck ever happened to evolution??

They are blocking evolution with neuroleptics!

> not god damn revolution but evolution.
> surely there are scientific minds in Russia
> what's with you peckerheads? god can't help you now.
> actually god has never helped anyone.
> take it up w/ chris hitchings when you get to the so called after life.
> busy here boss burning the karma right out of my ass.
> this job never gets done.
> fuck it, tech support, flip the fandango.
>
>

--
https://slowtemplelovecozmicpurplehealing.wordpress.com