It's starting to look like Trump's only action will be to grab a Secret
Serviceman's gun and turn it on himself before he's cuffed and tossed in a
holding cell with 12 stinking black men.

We�ve reached the Tony Bobulinski stage of the campaign
If the former business partner of your opponent�s son can�t turn your
campaign around, what can?
Vice President Joe Biden, with son Hunter and sister Valerie Biden Owens,
attends in Sojevo, Kosovo, a ceremony in 2016 to name a road after late
son Joseph R. �Beau� Biden III. (Visar Kryeziu/AP)
Vice President Joe Biden, with son Hunter and sister Valerie Biden Owens,
attends in Sojevo, Kosovo, a ceremony in 2016 to name a road after late
son Joseph R. �Beau� Biden III. (Visar Kryeziu/AP)
By
Philip Bump
Oct. 22, 2020 at 7:50 p.m. EDT

In some corners of the universe, it was a bombshell. President Trump would
be bringing none other than Tony Bobulinski to the second and final
presidential debate on Thursday night, a decision sure to shake the
foundation of the presidential race.

In most corners of the universe, though, the response was a bit different:
Tony Who-now?

There are two patterns that have so far defined Trump�s effort to win a
second term. The first is that his campaign seizes upon particular themes
and shakes them ferociously like a dog that�s nabbed a squirrel. The
second is that these themes often overlap with the obsessions of
conservative media, both because they often emerge from that world and
because they often inform it.

So we�ve seen these waves. Former vice president Joe Biden is addled! �
which lasted until the Democratic convention, and it was pretty obvious
that Biden was perfectly capable of offering an extensive rejection of
Trump�s first term in office. Leftist thugs are burning down cities! � an
argument that evaporated along with the summer�s rash of protests and, one
assumes, polling showing that it wasn�t doing any good.
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The most recent obsession in Trump�s universe is Biden�s son Hunter.
Hunter Biden�s rocky background is no secret, with Joe Biden himself
having addressed it on several occasions. Last week, though, the New York
Post began running a series of articles leveraging material obtained by
Trump�s attorney, Rudolph W. Giuliani. The initial focus was on re-
litigating the events that led to Trump�s impeachment last year, though
much of the attention was instead focused on the odd provenance of the
material. In reporting from the New York Post and Fox News since, the
focus has expanded outward to include other aspects of Hunter Biden�s
business record.

That�s where Mr. Bobulinski enters. A former business partner of Hunter
Biden�s, he apparently became frustrated at learning that the former vice
president�s son had made a business deal in China without him. He�s since
decided to help Giuliani and Senate Republicans dig through as much of
Hunter Biden�s business history as possible. His presence at the debate,
it appears, is either meant to rattle Joe Biden for unclear reasons � or
simply to inject more energy into Trump�s base, many of whom have been
tracking the expanding intricacies of the Hunter Biden plotline with great
enthusiasm.

It is, for example, a staple of Fox News�s coverage, with Hunter Biden�s
name arising repeatedly on both the main network and its sister, Fox
Business. It�s barely been mentioned on CNN or MSNBC.
Image without a caption

As with Trump�s fixation on crime and violent protests (the vast majority
of which were, in fact, not violent), this obsessive consideration of the
actions of Hunter has not had any significant effect on Joe. The first New
York Post story came out on Oct. 14. Since then, Biden�s national lead in
FiveThirtyEight�s average of polls has fallen a statistically
insignificant 0.3 points. In some swing states, the lead has narrowed a
bit more, but not demonstrably because voters there are particularly
worried about what Biden�s son was doing.
Image without a caption

We�ve included the late trend from 2016 polling because it�s essential
that Trump begin eating into Biden�s leads in most of these states if he
is to have a chance at a second term. Each day that goes by with Trump
throwing more energy into the Hunter Biden plotline (or feuds with CBS
News journalists) is a day on which more voters cast ballots and on which
the opportunity for Trump to close that gap escapes.
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After all, it�s not just that the polls narrowed nationally and in, say,
Pennsylvania. It�s that they narrowed from a much wider deficit than in
2016. Earlier this week, we looked at how the current race (solid lines)
compares with 2016 (dotted lines) on three metrics: overall support, the
margin between the two candidates and the pool of undecided voters. The
graph below (which updates automatically) shows the comparison. There are
fewer undecided voters who might shift to Trump this year, and Biden�s
over 50 percent in many places.

Yes, the national gap narrowed � but Biden�s still up by about 10 points.