Leaders of unstable nuclear-armed states do dangerous and foolish things
when under stress. They miscalculate, provoke, overreach. Given the
febrile state of bilateral relations, last week’s aerial military clash
between Russia and the US over the Black Sea inevitably intensified fears
of nuclear escalation.

As often the case over the past year, Putin relied on American restraint..
US forces could easily have gone after the offending Su-27 fighter at its
Crimea base. Each time Russia’s president darkly hints at going nuclear,
that once unthinkable prospect becomes a little less outlandish – and
western leaders must steel their nerves.

Russia possesses about 1,600 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, out of a
military stockpile of about 4,500. Like the US and other nuclear weapons
states, it is modernising and adding new systems. At the same time, a
vital safety net of arms control treaties dating from the Soviet era is
shredding. Last month, Putin ditched New Start, which caps deployed
strategic nuclear arsenals. It was Russia’s last such treaty with the US.

In other words, at the very moment when the Kremlin is under unprecedented
pressure and US-Russia relations are at their most tense since the 1962
Cuban missile crisis, the political channels, agreed mechanisms and
binding limits that could help avoid a nuclear collision are less robust
and dependable than ever before. While the risk of unintended nuclear
confrontation is ever-present, Putin’s recklessness makes it infinitely
worse.

Israel is another nuclear-armed state under extreme stress, mostly due to
its volatile rightwing prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu’s perceived
attempt to avoid jail by destroying judicial independence, and with it
Israel’s democracy, has caused uproar. Significantly, his “coup” is under
fire from serving members of the military and former defence ministers as
well as much of civil society.

If this destabilising nationwide upheaval were taking place in Pakistan,
for example, loud international expressions of concern about the security
of its secretive nuclear arsenal would be heard. So the comparative
silence over the safety and control of Israel’s 90 or so undeclared
warheads is disturbing. Amid an extraordinary standoff between Netanyahu
and US president Joe Biden, Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, fears civil
war. “The abyss is within touching distance,” he said last week.

There is good reason to worry about what Netanyahu may do, Putin-like, to
escape his self-made troubles. He has threatened to bomb Iran’s nuclear
facilities in the past. Israeli media suggest he may now be planning an
attack. Netanyahu warned this month of a “horrible nuclear war” unless
Tehran’s uranium enrichment programme was halted. Would he start a Middle
East conflict to save his skin? Past experience suggests he might.

If the US and its allies were not so distracted by Ukraine, they might pay
more attention to Netanyahu’s antics. Much the same may be said of the
developing crisis in nuclear-armed North Korea, where inherent weakness is
compounded by looming famine. New doubts surround dictator Kim Jong-un’s
health and a problematic succession. Stirring the pot, China and Russia
back him against the west despite the danger he poses.

Kim spent last week firing off nuclear-capable ballistic missiles like
there’s no tomorrow – and there may not be if he carries on like this.
Analysts anticipate another underground atomic test. Kim regularly
threatens the US – and South Korea and Japan, which met last week to
ponder what to do. Earlier this month he ordered his military to prepare
for “real war”. Is Kim waving or drowning, seeking attention or waxing
desperate? Ignoring North Korea, which is unspoken western policy, stores
up trouble.

It’s difficult to tell from his lugubrious appearance but Xi Jinping,
China’s newly anointed president for life, is a leader under severe
pressure, too. His zero-Covid policy damaged a struggling economy and
sparked something close to popular revolt. His aggressive foreign policy,
debt diplomacy and rights abuses have produced a global anti-China
backlash. By vowing to conquer US-backed Taiwan come what may, Xi has
created another rod for his back.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which CIA director William Burns predicts
may happen by 2027, is a probable nuclear flashpoint – especially if it
goes badly for Xi. It’s estimated China has about 400 operational nuclear
warheads, rising to approximately 1,000 by 2030. American nuclear-armed
ships, submarines and bombers constantly patrol the western Pacific.

For his part, Xi can point to continuing US and UK nuclear weapons
modernisation, and to last week’s deal to provide Australia with
nuclear-powered submarines. China complained at the UN that the deal
breached the nuclear non-proliferation treaty by transferring fissile
material and nuclear technology to a non-nuclear weapons state.

In an arrogant riposte, the US claimed it would actually strengthen
non-proliferation efforts – without explaining how. Iran and others will
register this double standard.

The longstanding refusal of the main powers to disarm is the root cause of
rising nuclear tensions – but irresponsible present-day political leaders
greatly exacerbate the danger. “The United States and its allies … are
faced with a choice,” wrote Lt Col Brent Stricker of the US Naval War
College in a bleak assessment of the changing nuclear world order. They
could either “restart arms limitation discussions to include both Russia
and China, or restart the arms race”.

The former course is wildly improbable at this juncture. So the old cold
war-era nuclear helter-skelter ride towards mutually assured destruction
looks set to resume and accelerate – under new, stressed-out management.
Assuming no one presses the button first.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/nuclear-nightmare-reckless-leaders-push-the-world-back-to-the-brink-putin-israel-north-korea

### - could be quite a nice world if it wasn't for all this political crap
huh...

so where did it all go sooo wrong??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVNb0Sft0vA

"it all makes perfect sense"

it certainly does heh ;)