https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13096483/satellite-looks-Star-Wars-Tie-Fighter-crash-Earth-week-scientists-dont-know-land.html

A satellite that looks like a Star Wars tie fighter craft is
expected to crash into Earth next week - but scientists don't
know where it will land.

The UK Space Agency said on Friday that they are on alert
ahead of the impact and have been working with satellite
tracking company HEO to observe the rogue satellite.

Scientists say they have no idea where the European Remote
Sensing 2 satellite's (ERS-2) will land.

The latest guess ESA (European Space Agency) shared for
their out of control satellite's reentry into the atmosphere
is Wednesday (21 Feb) at 12:10pm.

However, that crash predication comes with a margin of
error some 27 hours either side.

.. . .

USUALLY we get lucky and the bits fall into the sea.

But you never know.

The PROBLEM here is exactly how the sat interacts
with the extreme upper atmosphere. It may get some
random "bounce" - plus recent boosts in solar
activity have heated the upper atmosphere, pushing
it out a bit, but there's only guessing about its
state on a given day.

In any case it IS coming down - and it's massive
enough so notable bits will surely smack into
the ground. Bad enough normally, but in these
times it might be mistaken for terrorism or
Russian activity and bad decisions taken before
all the facts are known.

"Controlled re-entry" can help eliminate some of
this uncertainty/risk - but not all sats are set
up for this, esp the older ones. And no, you do
NOT blow them up !