"Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention.. The senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi, cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”

Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China can help America out of its economic problems.
....
China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
....
American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything else.

The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...

America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on these items.
....
Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.

“What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”

The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest in adding to it.

America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24, 2021)."

https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
..

On Monday, August 2, 2021 at 6:26:00 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> "Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention. The senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi, cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”
>
> Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China can help America out of its economic problems.
> ...
> China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
> ...
> American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything else.
>
> The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...
>
> America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on these items.
> ...
> Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.
>
> “What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”
>
> The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest in adding to it.
>
> America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24, 2021)."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
> .

The Roman Empire disappeared!!!
What make the U.S. any different????

On Monday, August 2, 2021 at 9:26:00 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
> "Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention. The senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi, cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”
>
> Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China can help America out of its economic problems.
> ...
> China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
> ...
> American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything else.
>
> The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...
>
> America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on these items.
> ...
> Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.
>
> “What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”

1. 22% of US national debt is inter-government agency debt. Interest payment only applied to the rest 78%.
2. Average US Treasury yield is more than 1%. At present the US Treasure is paying ~$502 billion annualized.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

But of course, interest rate would jump if inflation rate rises.

>
> The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest in adding to it.
>
> America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24, 2021)."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
> .

On Monday, August 2, 2021 at 9:26:00 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
> "Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention. The senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi, cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”
>
> Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China can help America out of its economic problems.
> ...
> China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
> ...
> American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything else.
>
> The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...
>
> America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on these items.
> ...
> Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.
>
> “What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”
>
> The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest in adding to it.
>
> America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24, 2021)."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
> .

The above is Goldman relating Chinese view per Jin Canrong, here is another American view per Nouriel Roubini.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-trump-neopopulist-economic-doctrine-by-nouriel-roubini-2021-08

" It was inevitable that the US economic-policy pendulum would swing from neoliberal to neo-populist. But this shift, while necessary, will bring risks of its own. Massive private and public debts mean that the Fed will remain in a debt trap. Moreover, the economy will be vulnerable to negative supply shocks from de-globalization, US-China decoupling, societal aging, migration restrictions, the curbing of the corporate sector, cyber-attacks, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Loose fiscal and monetary policies may help to increase labor’s share of income for now. But, over time, the same factors could trigger higher inflation or even stagflation (if those sharp negative supply shocks emerge). If policies to reduce inequality lead to unsustainable increases in private and public debts, the stage could be set for the kind of stagflationary debt crisis I warned about earlier this summer. "

Similar message.
Debt trap means America need more investment from aboard, China and elsewhere.
To preclude negative supply shock, the US needs to keep importing from China.

The British Empire, Japanese Empire disappeared, too.

"Rusty Wyse" wrote in message
news:7d88a99d-d625-4bf3-9cb1-0c7a4f1add2dn@googlegroups.com...

On Monday, August 2, 2021 at 6:26:00 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> "Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention. The
> senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi,
> cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s
> Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”
>
> Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website
> that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will
> be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China
> can help America out of its economic problems.
> ...
> China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the
> long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
> ...
> American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about
> $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s
> robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything
> else.
>
> The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to
> reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...
>
> America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about
> $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so
> their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on
> these items.
> ...
> Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure
> on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.
>
> “What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is
> more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion
> US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation
> approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow
> after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion
> a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which
> will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”
>
> The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a
> golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production
> capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest
> in adding to it.
>
> America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after
> inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the
> industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below
> the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24,
> 2021)."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
> .

The Roman Empire disappeared!!!
What make the U.S. any different????

On Thursday, August 5, 2021 at 11:45:53 PM UTC-4, carling wrote:
> The British Empire, Japanese Empire disappeared, too.

Japan, until the rise of Britain and then the US, was at a remote corner of the world.
Both Japan and Britain got strong by robbing and killing. And in general, causing a lot of
pain and suffering.

Both had lost influence with time. But they would survive.

>
> "Rusty Wyse" wrote in message
> news:7d88a99d-d625-4bf3...@googlegroups.com...
> On Monday, August 2, 2021 at 6:26:00 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> > "Renmin University professor Jin Canrong has Washington’s attention. The
> > senior director for China at the US National Security Council, Rush Doshi,
> > cited him two dozen times in a new book entitled “The Long Game: China’s
> > Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.”
> >
> > Professor Jin’s warning on Friday at the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website
> > that US inflation might lead to the bankruptcy of the US government will
> > be read carefully in Washington – especially because Jin claims that China
> > can help America out of its economic problems.
> > ...
> > China’s exports to the United States in 2021 stabilized well above the
> > long-term trend line, at an annual rate of about $550 billion.
> > ...
> > American factory capacity can’t begin to meet the demand created by about
> > $5 trillion of consumer stimulus, and American consumers turned to China’s
> > robust supply chain for consumer electronics and just about everything
> > else.
> >
> > The United States needs Chinese imports, and it also needs China to
> > reinvest its export earnings in American capital markets, ...
> >
> > America’s dependence on Chinese imports is stunning. Americans spend about
> > $2 trillion a year on consumer durables and $500 billion on apparel, so
> > their imports from China account for roughly a fifth of total spending on
> > these items.
> > ...
> > Inflation in the United States is rising, which will put a lot of pressure
> > on the US finances. The US federal debt is approaching $30 trillion.
> >
> > “What does this imply? At present, the interest on US Treasury bonds is
> > more than 1 point, and the annual interest payment is about $300 billion
> > US dollars, which is considered to be affordable. But if inflation
> > approaches 5% or even exceeds 5% (interest rates will definitely follow
> > after inflation exceeds 5), then the United States will need $1.5 trillion
> > a year to repay the interest of 30 trillion federal treasury bonds, which
> > will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the government.”
> >
> > The Biden administration is attempting the fiscal equivalent of sucking a
> > golf ball through a garden hose. There simply isn’t enough production
> > capacity to meet the demand, and American industries show scant interest
> > in adding to it.
> >
> > America invests about as much in manufacturing as it did in 1996 after
> > inflation, and America simply can’t meet the demand. CapEx for the
> > industrials sub-index of the S&P 500 is expected to languish at 30% below
> > the 2019 level (“US quits capex as inflation squeezes margins,” July 24,
> > 2021)."
> >
> > https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/will-china-bail-out-biden/
> > .
>
> The Roman Empire disappeared!!!
> What make the U.S. any different????