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interests / soc.culture.bulgaria / Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

SubjectAuthor
* Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?Nick
`* Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?Ivaylo Ivanov
 `* Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?Nick
  `* Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?Ivaylo Ivanov
   `- Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?Nick

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Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

<t709ls$1uii$1@gioia.aioe.org>

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From: ddantg...@mail.ru (Nick)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.bulgaria
Subject: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
Date: Sun, 29 May 2022 17:14:36 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: Nick - Sun, 29 May 2022 17:14 UTC

Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

We underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated the Russians, but now
we seem to be doing the reverse.

May 26, 2022 | 12:01 am

Doug Bandow

Russia’s attack was unjustified and criminal, causing needless death and
destruction in Ukraine, and sacrificing Russian lives for no good reason.
The U.S. and Europeans share the blame, having spent decades ignoring and
dismissing security complaints from Moscow, a decision that turned out to
be foolish, even reckless. However, that does not excuse Putin’s murderous
aggression. Nor are Ukrainians his only victims; Vladimir Putin’s decision
has sent shockwaves across nations and continents.

For instance, German Brigadier General Erich Vad recently offered a far
more pessimistic assessment than that which dominates Western airwaves:

[T]he Russians predominantly decide when, where, and with what forces,
they strike. The Russians proceed slowly in Donbass in steps over a
several kilometers broad front, and they also achieve gains in territory.
It does not happen so fast here as during the initial operations in Kyiv,
because they position themselves broader. And besides Mariupol, they
control here also the other urban centers on the Sea of Azov, and the
coast of the Black Sea. When one considers, it exists this option, which
President Zelensky talks about, of a counterstrike for the reconquest of
areas. But militarily-operationally this is far away from reality. The
Russians are simply too strong in east Ukraine. They have on the ground
and also in the air supremacy—that should not be misjudged. For
counteroffensives, the Ukrainians do not have the materiel, and they would
not succeed, if they had the materiel.

Vad dismissed claims that Western arms guarantee a Ukrainian breakthrough:

Ukraine’s logistical base is a thousand kilometers away, in Poland and
Slovakia. That these weapons have to be relocated over thousands of
kilometers through Ukraine to east Ukraine. And these supply lines are of
course under fire from the Russians. By their cruise missiles, short range
missiles, air force, by special forces, and reconnaissance. This way, a
large part of these supplies is annihilated or captured on its way to east
Ukraine. From a military-operational viewpoint, Ukraine only has a chance
to win at the end of a long-lasting conflict if the costs for Russia are
too high. That is, similar to Afghanistan for the West. Or Iraq for the
USA. But the price would be enormously high [for Ukraine]. It would in the
end be devastation of the country. That can, in my view, somehow never be
the objective.

However, a Ukrainian victory is not certain. It probably isn’t likely. It
might not even be possible. Given the uncertainty, the U.S. should push
for negotiations, offering support to Kiev to make peace, and providing
sanctions relief to Moscow if it does the same.

останалото обсебеният може да прочете сам.

надявам се, че този път няма да се хлъзне да търси статии за автора или за
организацията, създала сайта, а ще наблегне на осмислянето на текста.

в него има и други интересни неща, като това кой кого бил биел в този
конфликт. споменава се и нещо за жертви, ама ще оставя това обсебения да
го оповести, ако се осмели 8-).

--
«地 球 誕 生 在 牛 市 的 小 時 — Earth is born in the Bull's hour»

Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

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Subject: Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
From: ivaylop...@gmail.com (Ivaylo Ivanov)
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 by: Ivaylo Ivanov - Tue, 31 May 2022 15:14 UTC

On Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 1:14:37 PM UTC-4, Nick wrote:
...
> [T]he Russians predominantly decide when, where, and with what forces,
> they strike. The Russians proceed slowly in Donbass in steps over a
> several kilometers broad front, and they also achieve gains in territory.
> It does not happen so fast here as during the initial operations in Kyiv,
> because they position themselves broader. And besides Mariupol, they
> control here also the other urban centers on the Sea of Azov, and the
> coast of the Black Sea. When one considers, it exists this option, which
> President Zelensky talks about, of a counterstrike for the reconquest of
> areas. But militarily-operationally this is far away from reality. The
> Russians are simply too strong in east Ukraine. They have on the ground
> and also in the air supremacy—that should not be misjudged. For
> counteroffensives, the Ukrainians do not have the materiel, and they would
> not succeed, if they had the materiel.
Не виждам нищо особено спорно в написаното по-горе. Преди Украйна да получи и усвои тежка западна
артилерия в солидни количества, нещо което няма да стане преди края на идния месец, техните шансове
да удържат Донбас не е са особено високи. В момента единственото, на което са способни, е да нанесат
тежки загуби, в бойна сила и техника, на руската армия.

Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

<t75dg8$1d18$1@gioia.aioe.org>

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From: ddantg...@mail.ru (Nick)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.bulgaria
Subject: Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
Date: Tue, 31 May 2022 15:50:33 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: Nick - Tue, 31 May 2022 15:50 UTC

On Tue, 31 May 2022 08:14:50 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

> On Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 1:14:37 PM UTC-4, Nick wrote:

> ...

>> [T]he Russians predominantly decide when, where, and with what forces,
>> they strike. The Russians proceed slowly in Donbass in steps over a
>> several kilometers broad front, and they also achieve gains in
>> territory. It does not happen so fast here as during the initial
>> operations in Kyiv, because they position themselves broader. And
>> besides Mariupol, they control here also the other urban centers on the
>> Sea of Azov, and the coast of the Black Sea. When one considers, it
>> exists this option, which President Zelensky talks about, of a
>> counterstrike for the reconquest of areas. But militarily-operationally
>> this is far away from reality. The Russians are simply too strong in
>> east Ukraine. They have on the ground and also in the air
>> supremacy—that should not be misjudged. For counteroffensives, the
>> Ukrainians do not have the materiel, and they would not succeed, if
>> they had the materiel.

> Не виждам нищо особено спорно в написаното по-горе. Преди Украйна да
> получи и усвои тежка западна артилерия в солидни количества, нещо което
> няма да стане преди края на идния месец, техните шансове да удържат
> Донбас не е са особено високи. В момента единственото, на което са
> способни, е да нанесат тежки загуби, в бойна сила и техника, на руската
> армия.

аха, само се чудя къде са санитарите.

не за друго, а защото само този абзац ти се е сторил безспорен. а другите,
които трябва да са спорни, реши срамежливо да пропуснеш? особено един от
тях 8-)

--
«地 球 誕 生 在 牛 市 的 小 時 — Earth is born in the Bull's hour»

Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

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Subject: Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
From: ivaylop...@gmail.com (Ivaylo Ivanov)
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 by: Ivaylo Ivanov - Tue, 31 May 2022 20:43 UTC

On Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 11:50:35 AM UTC-4, Nick wrote:
> On Tue, 31 May 2022 08:14:50 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:
>
> > On Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 1:14:37 PM UTC-4, Nick wrote:
>
...
> не за друго, а защото само този абзац ти се е сторил безспорен. а другите,
> които трябва да са спорни, реши срамежливо да пропуснеш?
Какво искаш да кажа за тях? А за следните пасажи:
"For counteroffensives, the Ukrainians ... would not succeed, if they had the materiel"
"a large part of these supplies is annihilated or captured on its way to east Ukraine"
са просто неверни.

Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?

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From: ddantg...@mail.ru (Nick)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.bulgaria
Subject: Re: Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
Date: Tue, 31 May 2022 20:51:30 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: Nick - Tue, 31 May 2022 20:51 UTC

On Tue, 31 May 2022 13:43:24 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

> On Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 11:50:35 AM UTC-4, Nick wrote:

>> On Tue, 31 May 2022 08:14:50 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

>> > On Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 1:14:37 PM UTC-4, Nick wrote:

> ...

>> не за друго, а защото само този абзац ти се е сторил безспорен. а
>> другите, които трябва да са спорни, реши срамежливо да пропуснеш?

> Какво искаш да кажа за тях? А за следните пасажи:

> "For counteroffensives, the Ukrainians ... would not succeed, if they
> had the materiel"

> "a large part of these supplies is annihilated or captured on its way to
> east Ukraine"

> са просто неверни.

аха, аха.

всъщност, не очаквам да кажеш нещо различно от това, което си казал. както
вече казах работата е ясна.

--
«地 球 誕 生 在 牛 市 的 小 時 — Earth is born in the Bull's hour»

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