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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: What, me worry?

SubjectAuthor
* Rollout: What, me worry?Timothy Chow
`- Re: Rollout: What, me worry?badgolferman

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Rollout: What, me worry?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: What, me worry?
Date: Tue, 27 Apr 2021 21:58:29 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 28 Apr 2021 01:58 UTC

XGID=--AAAbC-C--abBabab-bBbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O X O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O O X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

The bot's preferred play of 22/16*/13 is hard for a human to play,
but ah_clem's play of 22/16* 6/3 also gets the nod. On the other
hand, XG hates the safe play.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 16/13 eq:-0.396
Player: 40.34% (G:8.74% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 59.66% (G:14.11% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.405..-0.388) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16* 6/3 eq:-0.418 (-0.021)
Player: 39.99% (G:10.21% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 60.01% (G:16.00% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.427..-0.409) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 20/14* 14/11* eq:-0.575 (-0.179)
Player: 37.72% (G:9.60% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 62.28% (G:23.56% B:1.81%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.595..-0.555) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 8/2 6/3 eq:-0.585 (-0.189)
Player: 34.85% (G:8.57% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 65.15% (G:14.23% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.601..-0.569) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: What, me worry?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: What, me worry?
Date: Wed, 28 Apr 2021 13:09:18 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 28 Apr 2021 13:09 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=--AAAbC-C--abBabab-bBbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O O | | O X O X |
> | X O O | | O X O X |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O O X | | X O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 161 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 63
>
>The bot's preferred play of 22/16*/13 is hard for a human to play,
>but ah_clem's play of 22/16* 6/3 also gets the nod. On the other
>hand, XG hates the safe play.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 22/16* 16/13 eq:-0.396
> Player: 40.34% (G:8.74% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 59.66% (G:14.11% B:0.65%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.405..-0.388) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 22/16* 6/3 eq:-0.418 (-0.021)
> Player: 39.99% (G:10.21% B:0.41%)
> Opponent: 60.01% (G:16.00% B:0.76%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.427..-0.409) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout² 20/14* 14/11* eq:-0.575 (-0.179)
> Player: 37.72% (G:9.60% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 62.28% (G:23.56% B:1.81%)
> Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.595..-0.555) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout² 8/2 6/3 eq:-0.585 (-0.189)
> Player: 34.85% (G:8.57% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 65.15% (G:14.23% B:0.56%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.601..-0.569) - [0.0%]
>
>¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
>² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
>eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
>---
>Tim Chow

Chalk this one up as a "Yeah, right..." lesson.

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