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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Anchor or hit?

Anchor or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchor or hit?
Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 08:59:58 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 10 May 2021 12:59 UTC

XGID=---BBbBaBA--dC-----ccAbAA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O X X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X O | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Anchor or hit?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Anchor or hit?
Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 13:45:30 +0000 (UTC)
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by: badgolferman - Mon, 10 May 2021 13:45 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=---BBbBaBA--dC-----ccAbAA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O X O X X |
> | X | | O O O |
> | X | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | | +---+
> | O X | | X O X X | | 2 |
> | O X X O | | X O X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 158 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X to play 65
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I think you have to hit. I would probably move the 9-point next for
potential builders.

13/7*, 9/4

Re: Anchor or hit?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Anchor or hit?
Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 10:08:05 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Mon, 10 May 2021 14:08 UTC

On 5/10/2021 8:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BBbBaBA--dC-----ccAbAA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X                |   | O O X O X X |
> | X                |   | O O     O       |
> | X                |   | O O             |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> | O                |   |                  |
> | O                |   |                  | +---+
> | O           X    |   | X O X X       | | 2 |
> | O        X X O |   | X O X X       | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 158 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 65

X is behind in the race and that calls for a bold play. Other safe v
bold criteria are even, so a marginal bold.

I'll hit and split to the bar point. Nine rolls dance and we should be
able to anchor soon.

24/18 13/7*

Rollout: Anchor or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Anchor or hit?
Date: Wed, 12 May 2021 09:12:35 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 12 May 2021 13:12 UTC

XGID=---BBbBaBA--dC-----ccAbAA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

I'm not sure if I have the right story for this one. Hitting
reduces O's shots (especially if we ignore O's rolls that hit
only on her 2pt). Also, O has only 8 checkers in the zone, so
that would seem to mean that anchoring isn't that urgent. The
best I can say is that O has some excellent jokers after X hits
and some awful anti-jokers if X anchors. For example, the
swing on 11 is huge---it's O's best roll from the bar, but is
surprisingly awkward to play after 24/18 23/18. O's 55 and 22
also play better after 13/7* 9/4 than after 24/18 23/18. And
after 24/18 23/18, O's 65 is awful, as as her 61 even though
she can hit with 61.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.037
Player: 46.46% (G:12.19% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 53.54% (G:18.71% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.026..+0.047) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7* 9/4 eq:-0.043 (-0.080)
Player: 43.52% (G:12.16% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 56.48% (G:19.28% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.054..-0.033) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7* eq:-0.066 (-0.103)
Player: 44.51% (G:11.54% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 55.49% (G:23.26% B:2.37%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.077..-0.056) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---BBbBaBA--dC-----ccAAbA-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X O | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 157 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 9/4 eq:+0.083
Player: 47.40% (G:13.37% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 52.60% (G:17.62% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.071..+0.095) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 21/16 eq:+0.038 (-0.045)
Player: 47.23% (G:9.98% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 52.77% (G:18.38% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.028..+0.047) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/17 13/7* eq:+0.005 (-0.078)
Player: 46.96% (G:12.03% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 53.04% (G:21.78% B:2.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.006..+0.015) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/16 13/7* eq:+0.000 (-0.083)
Player: 46.96% (G:11.85% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 53.04% (G:21.53% B:2.20%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.011..+0.011) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Anchor or hit?	Timothy Chow
Re: Anchor or hit?	badgolferman
Re: Anchor or hit?	ah...Clem
Rollout: Anchor or hit?	Timothy Chow