Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

Where is John Carson now that we need him? -- RLG

interests / rec.games.backgammon / If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

SubjectAuthor
* If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?peps...@gmail.com
+* Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?ah....Clem
|`- Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?peps...@gmail.com
`* Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?peps...@gmail.com
  `* Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?Timothy Chow
   `- Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?peps...@gmail.com

1
If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6271&group=rec.games.backgammon#6271

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:ac8:5ccc:: with SMTP id s12mr25032595qta.362.1620676242450;
Mon, 10 May 2021 12:50:42 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:aca:d6d5:: with SMTP id n204mr13285360oig.169.1620676242219;
Mon, 10 May 2021 12:50:42 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 12:50:41 -0700 (PDT)
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=217.155.59.144; posting-account=X1j9wgoAAADLt4UnZrIneT3jwl9HvLMd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.155.59.144
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 19:50:42 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 10 May 2021 19:50 UTC

XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:5:3:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:3 O:5. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O X X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 3-5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<s7ckk5$m85$1@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6272&group=rec.games.backgammon#6272

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
Date: Mon, 10 May 2021 20:54:30 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 42
Message-ID: <s7ckk5$m85$1@dont-email.me>
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 00:54:29 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="45f776bee01e132ecec5eec7da8e5fef";
logging-data="22789"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1/nNrNDPE6h4EI+L+FZSGeD"
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:78.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/78.10.0
Cancel-Lock: sha1:eKpTkhD0Skw4SFuVdQqi7VCcbUQ=
In-Reply-To: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
Content-Language: en-US
 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 11 May 2021 00:54 UTC

On 5/10/2021 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:5:3:3:0:10
> X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:3 O:5. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O X O X X |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 3-5
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>

Fours are massively duplicated. 42 makes another homeboard point. 44
hits two. 53 and 52 also hit with 53 duped. So, there are fewer crushing
rolls than at first glance. But there's still 15 big losers for O if I
counted right.

X has a lot of work to do if one of other 25 rolls appear, but O has 16
dancing rolls, so X gets another shot at the 15 crushers almost half the
time.

I'd cube this since it seems to be a bit of a poser for O. Lots of wins
due to the race and the five checkers X has back, but also lots of
gammons due to the crushers and the dances. I'll say take, but not sure.

Jacoby may or may not matter; I'm ignoring it either way.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6273&group=rec.games.backgammon#6273

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 00:33:18 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 32
Message-ID: <s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me>
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 04:33:19 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="3fdf199a37f40262afeac4a072e1d72e";
logging-data="29598"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19z9pZYQun11FLDVvxZGfMM7qVymsPvChI="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:78.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/78.10.1
Cancel-Lock: sha1:igMXdOt4XcsC6u3YhW7gRg3kShY=
In-Reply-To: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
Content-Language: en-US
 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 May 2021 04:33 UTC

On 5/10/2021 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:5:3:3:0:10
> X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:3 O:5. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O X O X X |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 3-5
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

My first instinct is that this has to be a take, since X is
over 30 pips down, and O has a reasonable offensive position
with only one checker back (the one on the bar) against a
four-point board. O's two blots in the outfield give me pause
because they mean that a large fraction of O's losses will be
gammon losses. But I still think it has to be a take. D/T.

---
Tim Chow

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<846a58a8-03c1-402b-b9d3-a8089103fb9an@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6275&group=rec.games.backgammon#6275

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:ac8:7f83:: with SMTP id z3mr18388126qtj.239.1620736882939;
Tue, 11 May 2021 05:41:22 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a9d:6a7:: with SMTP id 36mr24576294otx.317.1620736882644;
Tue, 11 May 2021 05:41:22 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder6.news.weretis.net!news.snarked.org!border2.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 05:41:20 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=217.155.59.144; posting-account=X1j9wgoAAADLt4UnZrIneT3jwl9HvLMd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.155.59.144
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com> <s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <846a58a8-03c1-402b-b9d3-a8089103fb9an@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 12:41:22 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Lines: 91
 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 11 May 2021 12:41 UTC

On Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 5:33:20 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:5:3:3:0:10
> > X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:3 O:5. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O O | | O X O X X |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X X X X |
> > | O X | | X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 3-5
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> My first instinct is that this has to be a take, since X is
> over 30 pips down, and O has a reasonable offensive position
> with only one checker back (the one on the bar) against a
> four-point board. O's two blots in the outfield give me pause
> because they mean that a large fraction of O's losses will be
> gammon losses. But I still think it has to be a take. D/T.

I (correctly) passed but I wasn't at all sure and wondered if I got that right.
I was expecting a consensus here that this was a big pass and an obvious pass.
Hence my defensive title.
I'm surprised that both of you are takers. I think this is a marginal pass but since
Tim said explicitly that "1.074 seems like a pretty big pass to me", he is rather hoist
by his own petard, n'est-ce pas?

Paul

XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O X X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.65% (G:35.10% B:2.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.35% (G:8.70% B:0.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.16% (G:36.77% B:2.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.84% (G:8.69% B:0.53%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.633, Double=+1.318

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.703 (-0.297)
Double/Take: +1.074 (+0.074)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.695..+0.711)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.056..+1.091)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 37 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<s7dv9k$4v0$1@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6279&group=rec.games.backgammon#6279

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 09:02:42 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 55
Message-ID: <s7dv9k$4v0$1@dont-email.me>
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
<s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me>
<846a58a8-03c1-402b-b9d3-a8089103fb9an@googlegroups.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 13:02:44 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="3fdf199a37f40262afeac4a072e1d72e";
logging-data="5088"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1++nN8LTM1KIDbr2fAnXUdxfpyBPhg7Vp8="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:78.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/78.10.1
Cancel-Lock: sha1:1ZptVLZ6Gaouv6haQAxz7Lv6Yh4=
In-Reply-To: <846a58a8-03c1-402b-b9d3-a8089103fb9an@googlegroups.com>
Content-Language: en-US
 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 May 2021 13:02 UTC

On 5/11/2021 8:41 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I'm surprised that both of you are takers. I think this is a marginal pass but since
> Tim said explicitly that "1.074 seems like a pretty big pass to me", he is rather hoist
> by his own petard, n'est-ce pas?

Yes, this is a big pass. Among other things, I underestimated
the liability of O's semi-dead checker on her 3pt.

XGID=a-BB-BC-A---a---accdC-bAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O X X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.19% (G:34.65% B:1.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.81% (G:8.67% B:0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.88% (G:36.53% B:1.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.12% (G:8.81% B:0.58%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.687 (-0.313)
Double/Take: +1.003 (+0.003)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.678..+0.695)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.986..+1.019)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<9d06e64b-54c6-4599-ab95-c233c439b661n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6280&group=rec.games.backgammon#6280

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:481:: with SMTP id 1mr28139188qkr.46.1620744910340;
Tue, 11 May 2021 07:55:10 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:aca:6109:: with SMTP id v9mr3740459oib.65.1620744910052;
Tue, 11 May 2021 07:55:10 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder6.news.weretis.net!news.snarked.org!border2.nntp.dca1.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 07:55:09 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <s7dv9k$4v0$1@dont-email.me>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=217.155.59.144; posting-account=X1j9wgoAAADLt4UnZrIneT3jwl9HvLMd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.155.59.144
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com>
<s7d1ef$ssu$1@dont-email.me> <846a58a8-03c1-402b-b9d3-a8089103fb9an@googlegroups.com>
<s7dv9k$4v0$1@dont-email.me>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <9d06e64b-54c6-4599-ab95-c233c439b661n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 14:55:10 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Lines: 57
 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 11 May 2021 14:55 UTC

On Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 2:02:45 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 5/11/2021 8:41 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I'm surprised that both of you are takers. I think this is a marginal pass but since
> > Tim said explicitly that "1.074 seems like a pretty big pass to me", he is rather hoist
> > by his own petard, n'est-ce pas?
> Yes, this is a big pass. Among other things, I underestimated
> the liability of O's semi-dead checker on her 3pt.
>
> XGID=a-BB-BC-A---a---accdC-bAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O X O X X |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | O O | | O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 66.19% (G:34.65% B:1.95%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.81% (G:8.67% B:0.52%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 66.88% (G:36.53% B:1.88%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.12% (G:8.81% B:0.58%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.687 (-0.313)
> Double/Take: +1.003 (+0.003)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.678..+0.695)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.986..+1.019)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

Can you variantize to show how much difference this positional factor makes?

Paul

Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?

<05a8f83a-7dd6-432b-a86a-09d4735b6ae0n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6281&group=rec.games.backgammon#6281

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:240c:: with SMTP id d12mr9870281qkn.190.1620753397104;
Tue, 11 May 2021 10:16:37 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a4a:be86:: with SMTP id o6mr6695087oop.67.1620753396913;
Tue, 11 May 2021 10:16:36 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!paganini.bofh.team!usenet.pasdenom.info!usenet-fr.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 10:16:36 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <s7ckk5$m85$1@dont-email.me>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=217.155.59.144; posting-account=X1j9wgoAAADLt4UnZrIneT3jwl9HvLMd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.155.59.144
References: <4b70ca12-8932-4000-8b36-933a7c8febd9n@googlegroups.com> <s7ckk5$m85$1@dont-email.me>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <05a8f83a-7dd6-432b-a86a-09d4735b6ae0n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: If I didn't find a position interesting, why would I post it?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 17:16:37 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 11 May 2021 17:16 UTC

On Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 1:54:31 AM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 5/10/2021 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=-aaC-cCCCA---A---a-cb-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:5:3:3:0:10
> > X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:3 O:5. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O O | | O X O X X |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X X X X |
> > | O X | | X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 153 O: 119 X-O: 3-5
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> >
> Fours are massively duplicated. 42 makes another homeboard point. 44
> hits two. 53 and 52 also hit with 53 duped. So, there are fewer crushing
> rolls than at first glance. But there's still 15 big losers for O if I
> counted right.

But you didn't count right because you left out 62 -- so we get 17 big losers.
This miscounting is enough to turn a pass into a take using crude heuristics as follows:
You thought it was a take but weren't sure so suppose you saw it as a 0.95 take.
Heuristically, 17 crushing rolls instead of 15 makes the position 17/15 better than you thought it was.
0.95 * 17/15 = approx 1.077 which is a pass and a close match for XG's evaluation.
Moral: counting shots correctly is good for your play and analysis.

Paul

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor