novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon

Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or run?
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 08:47:53 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 May 2021 12:47 UTC

XGID=--aB-BB-CaB-b----bBcbbb-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O X |
| O X | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X O X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Attack or run?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Attack or run?
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 13:00:24 +0000 (UTC)
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by: badgolferman - Tue, 11 May 2021 13:00 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=--aB-BB-CaB-b----bBcbbb-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O X |
> | O X | | O O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | | +---+
> | O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
> | O X O X | | X X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 156 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X to play 65
>
>---
>Tim Chow

X back men are in good position now so I wouldn't break anything up.
Being so far down in pips I think this is a good time to go for the
attack.

8/2*, 10/5

Re: Attack or run?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Attack or run?
Date: Tue, 11 May 2021 15:51:57 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Tue, 11 May 2021 19:51 UTC

On 5/11/2021 8:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aB-BB-CaB-b----bBcbbb-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |             O X |   | O O O O     X |
> |             O X |   | O O O O     X |
> |                  |   | O                |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |             X    |   |                  | +---+
> | O     X     X    |   | X X     X       | | 2 |
> | O     X O X    |   | X X     X O    | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 156 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 65

O has the better board so offering an exchange of hits seems
antipositional. But X is behind in the race so a bold play seems to be
called for. I might hit loose on the deuce if there was something
reasonable to do with the five, but I'm not seeing it and I don't
particularly want to play two off the eight and leave a blot there.

24/18 gives X a decent shot at a bar point holding game and 8/3 isn't so
bad since X retains the point.

24/18 8/3.

Rollout: Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Thu, 13 May 2021 08:51:16 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 13 May 2021 12:51 UTC

XGID=--aB-BB-CaB-b----bBcbbb-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

I vacillated for a while here but finally opted to hit. Huge
mistake, says XG. Part of the story is that by playing 24/18,
he improves his chances in the battle against O's outfield
checkers (particularly her blot on the 9pt) and the blot he
leaves on the 24pt is not in that much immediate danger (note
that O's 5's are duplicated to hit and escape). See the
variant for an illustration of what I'm trying to say.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3 eq:-0.261
Player: 38.06% (G:9.66% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 61.94% (G:26.56% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.270..-0.252) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/2* eq:-0.403 (-0.142)
Player: 33.83% (G:9.33% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 66.17% (G:27.82% B:3.45%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.413..-0.393) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5 10/4 eq:-0.404 (-0.143)
Player: 32.99% (G:7.62% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 67.01% (G:24.88% B:2.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.413..-0.395) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:-0.424 (-0.163)
Player: 35.53% (G:9.21% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 64.47% (G:35.92% B:1.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.434..-0.413) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aB-BB-C-B-b----bBccbb-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O X |
| O X | | O O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 10/5 10/4 eq:-0.435
Player: 33.22% (G:6.85% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 66.78% (G:27.22% B:3.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.445..-0.425) - [92.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/2* eq:-0.446 (-0.011)
Player: 33.60% (G:6.84% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 66.40% (G:28.93% B:3.59%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.457..-0.435) - [7.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3 eq:-0.473 (-0.038)
Player: 33.28% (G:7.88% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 66.72% (G:34.66% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.482..-0.464) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Good day to avoid cops. Crawl to work.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Attack or run?

Subject	Author
Attack or run?	Timothy Chow
Re: Attack or run?	badgolferman
Re: Attack or run?	ah...Clem
Rollout: Attack or run?	Timothy Chow