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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 55 to play, not so early this time

SubjectAuthor
* 55 to play, not so early this timeTimothy Chow
+- Re: 55 to play, not so early this timebadgolferman
+- Re: 55 to play, not so early this timeah...Clem
`- Rollout: 55 to play, not so early this timeTimothy Chow

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55 to play, not so early this time

<s80f8p$40t$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 55 to play, not so early this time
Date: Tue, 18 May 2021 09:25:45 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 18 May 2021 13:25 UTC

XGID=-aa-BBCB----bBa--bacbb--D-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 172 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Re: 55 to play, not so early this time

<xn0my41on5aykjk003@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 55 to play, not so early this time
Date: Thu, 20 May 2021 15:28:13 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Thu, 20 May 2021 15:28 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=-aa-BBCB----bBa--bacbb--D-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O X |
> | | | X |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O X | | X X X | | 2 |
> | O X | | X X X O O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 172 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X to play 55
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I think you have to hit both home board blots to keep O off balance and
prevent him from priming the other side.

7/2*(2), 6/1*, 13/8

Re: 55 to play, not so early this time

<s86mpj$mpm$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 55 to play, not so early this time
Date: Thu, 20 May 2021 18:10:55 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Thu, 20 May 2021 22:10 UTC

On 5/18/2021 9:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa-BBCB----bBa--bacbb--D-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O        O  O |   | O  O  O        X |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O        X |
>  |                  |   | O              X |
>  |                  |   |                X |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                | +---+
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X     O  O | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 172  O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 55
>

I'd opt for 13/3(2), hoping to keep her bottled up long enough for me to
escape some of my runners. Seems like hitting just gives away the
timing game.

Rollout: 55 to play, not so early this time

<s8c0fn$2c1$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 55 to play, not so early this time
Date: Sat, 22 May 2021 18:27:00 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 22 May 2021 22:27 UTC

XGID=-aa-BBCB----bBa--bacbb--D-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 172 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

I'd call this another tempo-hit play. It's pretty remarkable to me
how bad XG thinks the other plays are. I didn't roll out ah...Clem's
suggestion of 13/3(2) but I think XG judges that to be something like
a 0.9 (!) blunder.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 7/2*(2) 6/1* eq:+0.178
Player: 47.42% (G:29.70% B:3.08%)
Opponent: 52.58% (G:24.29% B:3.45%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.160..+0.196) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:-0.104 (-0.282)
Player: 40.00% (G:24.22% B:1.86%)
Opponent: 60.00% (G:28.25% B:3.45%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.120..-0.089) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 7/2*(2) eq:-0.214 (-0.392)
Player: 36.78% (G:20.12% B:2.22%)
Opponent: 63.22% (G:27.79% B:2.83%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.229..-0.198) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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