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interests / rec.games.backgammon / If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?

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* If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?peps...@gmail.com
`* Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you holdTimothy Chow
 `- Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you holdpeps...@gmail.com

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If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?

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Subject: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 21 May 2021 22:18 UTC

BTW, I'm not sure the XGID is correct because I had to de-garble it.
XGID=aBB-BBBAA----AB---abbbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:10

Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 76 X-O: 0-2
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?

<s8bvsb$n5r$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold
it against me?
Date: Sat, 22 May 2021 18:16:41 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 22 May 2021 22:16 UTC

On 5/21/2021 6:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> BTW, I'm not sure the XGID is correct because I had to de-garble it.
> XGID=aBB-BBBAA----AB---abbbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 92 O: 76 X-O: 0-2
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

This looks pretty close to the reference positions in Kit Woolsey's
first volume of the Backgammon Encyclopedia. I remember that if X
has an open 5pt, then the critical juncture happens when X is about
10-12 pips down with 2 or 3 builders for the open point. A lower
open point (here, the 3pt) is bad for the defender, naturally, since
that makes escaping harder. But it's only 2 builders for the 3pt
and X is 16 pips down (though O has wastage). I'm guessing D/T.

---
Tim Chow

Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold it against me?

<b3ab1a3c-fd78-406a-aed3-8012581514e0n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: If I said that I thought I didn't have a double, would you hold
it against me?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 23 May 2021 08:35 UTC

On Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 11:16:44 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 5/21/2021 6:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > BTW, I'm not sure the XGID is correct because I had to de-garble it.
> > XGID=aBB-BBBAA----AB---abbbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O O O O O O |
> > | X | | O O O O O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> > | X X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 92 O: 76 X-O: 0-2
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> This looks pretty close to the reference positions in Kit Woolsey's
> first volume of the Backgammon Encyclopedia. I remember that if X
> has an open 5pt, then the critical juncture happens when X is about
> 10-12 pips down with 2 or 3 builders for the open point. A lower
> open point (here, the 3pt) is bad for the defender, naturally, since
> that makes escaping harder. But it's only 2 builders for the 3pt
> and X is 16 pips down (though O has wastage). I'm guessing D/T.

Taking is a 0.035 error according to XG. However, I don't consider a 0.035 cube error
to be at all bad (though your standards may be higher). Also, XG took OTB against me
so you're in good company. I was very surprised by the take. However, since this
is only wrong by 0.035, my surprise was misplaced.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.10% (G:2.00% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.90% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.00% (G:1.59% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.00% (G:2.54% B:0.06%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.561, Double=+1.140

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.851 (-0.149)
Redouble/Take: +1.035 (+0.035)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

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