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interests / rec.games.backgammon / You're behind in the race but race anyway!

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* You're behind in the race but race anyway!peps...@gmail.com
`- Re: You're behind in the race but race anyway!Timothy Chow

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You're behind in the race but race anyway!

<520a2b3a-34e2-46d8-8c68-480d5cad995an@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: You're behind in the race but race anyway!
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 23 May 2021 15:21 UTC

In the below position, I raced with 21/15(2) but
was not at all confident that this was correct.
XG vindicated my play and in fact another play
would have been a serious error.
But it is a bit puzzling because I am behind in the race
and I have a much better board.
I suppose the problem with not racing is that it enables XG
to bear in efficiently while I am constantly hanging back.
I obviously kind of saw this because I played correctly.
I suppose the moral of the story is that "Ahead in the race?
Race." is non-symmetric. No one ever said "Behind in the race?
Don't race." and such a motto would lead to a lot of errors.

Paul

XGID=-ABBBBB-AA------cc-ccB-ab-:0:0:1:33:2:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O |
| O O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 88 X-O: 2-4
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. 4-ply 21/15(2) eq:-0.246
Player: 41.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 58.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. 4-ply 21/18(2) 9/6 8/5 eq:-0.303 (-0.057)
Player: 39.73% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 60.27% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)

3. 4-ply 21/18(2) 9/3 eq:-0.309 (-0.063)
Player: 39.38% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 60.62% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)

4. 4-ply 21/18(2) 8/2 eq:-0.312 (-0.066)
Player: 39.22% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 60.78% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)

5. 3-ply 21/18(2) 8/5 6/3 eq:-0.313 (-0.067)
Player: 39.52% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 60.48% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: You're behind in the race but race anyway!

<s8f40k$l5q$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: You're behind in the race but race anyway!
Date: Sun, 23 May 2021 22:45:39 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 24 May 2021 02:45 UTC

On 5/23/2021 11:21 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> But it is a bit puzzling because I am behind in the race
> and I have a much better board.

In holding games, you should always consider both your racing
vig and your shot vig simultaneously.

You're an underdog no matter what, so just because racing
leaves you an underdog in the race doesn't mean it's wrong.
If you don't run now, you have to waste pips, thus throwing
away some of your racing vig. If you're doing that, then
you had better be increasing your shot vig enough to compensate.
Having a better board isn't enough. You still have to get a
shot and hit it, and you need to do that before you're forced
to run anyway. O's bearin will probably be smooth and you
might not be able to hang around long enough to get and
hit a shot, assuming you get a shot at all.

---
Tim Chow

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