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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

SubjectAuthor
* Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5aah...Clem
+- Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5abadgolferman
+- Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5aAxel Reichert
+- Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5aTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5aah....Clem

1
Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a
Date: Wed, 26 May 2021 13:11:44 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Wed, 26 May 2021 17:11 UTC

XGID=----CCCBB---bB-b---bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:You
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a
Date: Wed, 26 May 2021 17:55:04 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 26 May 2021 17:55 UTC

ah...Clem wrote:

>XGID=----CCCBB---bB-b---bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
>
>X:X O:You
>Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
>Cube: 1
>X on roll, cube action

Looks like a double for sure. I'm not sure I would take because O will
be quite far behind in pips after the next roll and he doesn't have any
checkers down low. On the other hand the score is 0-0 so someone might
be inclined to take and try their chances.

Double/Pass

Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

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From: mai...@axel-reichert.de (Axel Reichert)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a
Date: Wed, 26 May 2021 20:13:12 +0200
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Axel Reichert - Wed, 26 May 2021 18:13 UTC

"ah...Clem" <ah_clem@ymail.com> writes:

> XGID=----CCCBB---bB-b---bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
>
> X:X O:You
> Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Abusing the Isight method ("Almost a race") gives double and a slight
pass. Whether that previously discussed "minimal" contact pushes it into
take territory I do not know, perhaps an extremely close call. I would
decide on the players' strength: If I believe myself the stronger
player, I pass. If I believe to be the weaker player, I take. A rollout
with the METs from "Can a fish taste twice as good?" is certainly
interesting. And most likely this (often neglected) effect completely
dominates any discussion about minimal contact.

Axel

Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a
Date: Wed, 26 May 2021 21:40:30 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 27 May 2021 01:40 UTC

On 5/26/2021 1:11 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
> XGID=----CCCBB---bB-b---bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
>
> X:X O:You
> Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

This looks like one of those tricky positions from Trice's book
that we discussed not long ago. Trice's rule would normally
say that O's point of last take is 98 pips, and she has 101.
But X has wastage because of his checkers on his 2pt, and the
midpoint contact is worth something to O. I'll take, but it
looks close.

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Almost a race cube decision @ 5a5a
Date: Fri, 28 May 2021 09:21:34 -0400
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 by: ah....Clem - Fri, 28 May 2021 13:21 UTC

This came up in a match on FIBS between me and Peter Schneider, who used
to frequent this board. He shipped it and I took a moment to decide on
the take. Apparently, he thought this was a massive pass and wondered
why I had to think about it, but it isn't an easy decision according to XG.

My approach was similar to Axel's - it's almost a race, so do a race
cube calculation. Trice 10% +1 formula says pass by a good margin. With
Isight I get a very close pass. Figuring the contact is worth something
and the takepoint at 5a5a is deeper than for money, I took the cube.

XG rollout says it's a very narrow pass. (.006)

Does the contact change anything? Well, yes and no. In the variant
below, I've eliminated the contact while keeping the pipcount constant
to get a rather unrealistic position where each player owns the "wrong"
midpoint. This is enough to make the difference between take and pass,
but in the opposite direction from what you might expect (and the margin
is even smaller .002). The only thing I can figure is that X's stronger
board means contact favors him more than O.

The main thing I was trying to figure out was how farfetched it was to
use a race cube formula in this situation, and if so whether Trice or
Isight would be more accurate.

XGID=----CCCBB---bB-b---bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 80.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.11% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.602, Double=+1.153

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.879 (-0.121)
Double/Take: +1.006 (+0.006)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.875..+0.883)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.001..+1.012)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 98.4%

Duration: 23.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

************************
* variant
************************

XGID=----CCCB-B--Bbb----bbbbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O |
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 101 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 79.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.598, Double=+1.144

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.877 (-0.120)
Double/Take: +0.998
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.002)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.875..+0.880)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.995..+1.001)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 88.4%

Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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