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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Some kind of cube decision

SubjectAuthor
* Some kind of cube decisionTimothy Chow
+* Re: Some kind of cube decisionah...Clem
|`- Re: Some kind of cube decisionStick Rice
`- Rollout: Some kind of cube decisionTimothy Chow

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Some kind of cube decision

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Some kind of cube decision
Date: Tue, 25 May 2021 09:46:55 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 25 May 2021 13:46 UTC

XGID=-BbBBBBB-A--c-----Bcbabb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X O X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Some kind of cube decision

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Some kind of cube decision
Date: Tue, 25 May 2021 10:32:11 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Tue, 25 May 2021 14:32 UTC

On 5/25/2021 9:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BbBBBBB-A--c-----Bcbabb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
>  |                X |   | O  O     O  O    |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O                |   |                  | +---+
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X  X  O  X | | 2 |
>  | O        X     X |   | X  X  X  X  O  X | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 97  O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

I suppose I'd call this a "mutual holding game" cube.

Are they usually takes? Not sure.

Seems like O has enough to take here with the nice board and X still
needing to clear the 18 point. Might be a cube but I'll take a shake.
Doubles other than 66 are market losers, but I'm not seeing any others.
Well, O rolling 33, 44, or 55. That's eight, one shy of the requisite 9.

ND/T.

OTOH, I might ship it OTB against an inferior player to try to provoke
an error.

Re: Some kind of cube decision

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Subject: Re: Some kind of cube decision
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 25 May 2021 21:09 UTC

On Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10:32:15 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 5/25/2021 9:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-BbBBBBB-A--c-----Bcbabb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X | | O O O O O |
> > | X | | O O O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | | +---+
> > | O X | | X X X X O X | | 2 |
> > | O X X | | X X X X O X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 97 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> I suppose I'd call this a "mutual holding game" cube.
>
> Are they usually takes? Not sure.
>
> Seems like O has enough to take here with the nice board and X still
> needing to clear the 18 point. Might be a cube but I'll take a shake.
> Doubles other than 66 are market losers, but I'm not seeing any others.
> Well, O rolling 33, 44, or 55. That's eight, one shy of the requisite 9.
>
> ND/T.
>
>
> OTOH, I might ship it OTB against an inferior player to try to provoke
> an error.

It's a recube. You need 11-12 market losing sequences in general. I wouldn't even use my delay time on this cube, it's just not there.

Stick

Rollout: Some kind of cube decision

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Some kind of cube decision
Date: Thu, 27 May 2021 08:48:19 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 27 May 2021 12:48 UTC

XGID=-BbBBBBB-A--c-----Bcbabb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X O X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Some would pass this one because they have two checkers stuck
behind X's five-prime. But although X obviously has a clear
advantage, it's too early for O to give up. In fact, there
aren't a lot of market losers here, and the rollout says it's
a clear ND.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 64.89% (G:14.99% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.11% (G:7.20% B:0.33%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.47% (G:14.99% B:0.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.53% (G:7.26% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.632
Redouble/Take: +0.547 (-0.085)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.368)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.8%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.624..+0.640)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.531..+0.563)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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