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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

SubjectAuthor
* Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?ah...Clem
+- Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?badgolferman
+* Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?J R
|`- Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?Timothy Chow

1
Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

<s980p4$ghi$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2021 09:23:46 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 2 Jun 2021 13:23 UTC

XGID=aB-BB-C---aAbC---d-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

<s98250$q32$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2021 09:47:09 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Wed, 2 Jun 2021 13:47 UTC

On 6/2/2021 9:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aB-BB-C---aAbC---d-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  X          |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  X          |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O             |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X     X  X     X |
>  | O  X  O          |   | X     X  X     X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 126  O: 137 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Yes, but for different reasons. At DMP, I wouldn't ship it since I can't
(although FIBS software seems to allow this). I wouldn't ship it here
since there are too many gammons.

TG/P.

Jacoby would change things, but that's just an argument against using
Jacoby - we want Stick's DMP rule to apply as much as possible, don't we?

Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2021 14:04:41 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 2 Jun 2021 14:04 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=aB-BB-C---aAbC---d-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 126 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X on roll, cube action
>
>---
>Tim Chow

Looks too good to me. I would pass as O.

Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

<f899122b-6432-4ff8-965e-bbb566cad515n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Wed, 2 Jun 2021 16:56 UTC

On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 9:23:49 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=aB-BB-C---aAbC---d-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Awesome. You're making titles where I can't be wrong now as the answer is both yes and no. Ty.

Stick

Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

<s9ajtv$r7d$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
Date: Thu, 3 Jun 2021 09:02:54 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 3 Jun 2021 13:02 UTC

On 6/2/2021 12:56 PM, J R wrote:
> Awesome. You're making titles where I can't be wrong now as the answer is both yes and no. Ty.

Wrong. The answer is yes. Stick's DMP rule *always* applies.

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?

<s9t3e2$vi4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Does Stick's DMP rule apply here?
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2021 09:17:51 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 10 Jun 2021 13:17 UTC

XGID=aB-BB-C---aAbC---d-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

When the opponent has made her 5pt and is not far behind in
the race, and has no checkers in my home board, I don't normally
think in terms of being TG. But I have a double shot at the blot
and a high anchor, so I win a lot of gammons and lose very few
gammons.

By the way, if this were a 3-point match and X were recubing to 4,
then XG would take as O.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.85% (G:50.01% B:0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.15% (G:5.30% B:0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.99% (G:50.86% B:0.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.01% (G:5.68% B:0.34%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.045
Double/Take: +1.714 (+0.670)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.045)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.2%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+1.033..+1.056)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.699..+1.730)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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