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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers

This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers

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Subject: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 17 Jun 2021 20:03 UTC

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
XGID=---Cb-FBb---b----c-bbBb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X X O | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O X O |
| X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers
Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2021 09:18:28 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Jun 2021 13:18 UTC

On 6/17/2021 4:03 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> XGID=---Cb-FBb---b----c-bbBb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
> X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O |
> | X X O | | O X O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X X O X O |
> | X | | X X O X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 154 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

I call this a "connectivity" cube. O's army is badly disconnected.
She has four checkers back but no outfield presence, and her forward
checkers are too far forward to form a prime.

On the other hand, the race is even. O has an advanced anchor and
no blots. If she can get her back checkers going without getting
blitzed, she definitely has winning chances. I don't think this is
a pass yet and I would take. As for market losers, it's more that
O has bad rolls that completely destroy her position than that X
has crushing jokers.

---
Tim Chow

Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers

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Subject: Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 22 Jun 2021 22:01 UTC

On Tuesday, June 22, 2021 at 2:18:33 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 6/17/2021 4:03 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> > XGID=---Cb-FBb---b----c-bbBb-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
> > X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O X O |
> > | X X O | | O X O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | 6 |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | |
> > | X | | X X O X O |
> > | X | | X X O X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 154 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> I call this a "connectivity" cube. O's army is badly disconnected.
> She has four checkers back but no outfield presence, and her forward
> checkers are too far forward to form a prime.
>
> On the other hand, the race is even. O has an advanced anchor and
> no blots. If she can get her back checkers going without getting
> blitzed, she definitely has winning chances. I don't think this is
> a pass yet and I would take. As for market losers, it's more that
> O has bad rolls that completely destroy her position than that X
> has crushing jokers.

Rolled out to a pass but I like your way of thinking about it. I was quite confident
in my (bad) take. Simply ask the guard: "If I were to ask the other guard whether
the position is a take or pass, what would he say?"
And then do the opposite.

Paul (or rather Luap since I'm advocating doing the opposite).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.84% (G:19.56% B:0.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.16% (G:5.48% B:0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.13% (G:19.75% B:0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.87% (G:5.45% B:0.16%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.605, Double=+1.226

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.920 (-0.080)
Double/Take: +1.050 (+0.050)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.906..+0.933)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.032..+1.068)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers

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Subject: Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 22 Jun 2021 22:03 UTC

Subject	Author
This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers	peps...@gmail.com
Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers	Timothy Chow
Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers	peps...@gmail.com
Re: This is an obvious hold because there aren't any market losers	peps...@gmail.com