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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?

SubjectAuthor
* Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?badgolferman
+- Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?ah....Clem
`- Rollout: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?Timothy Chow

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Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?

<sb4mri$tm1$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?
Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2021 09:48:33 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Jun 2021 13:48 UTC

XGID=bCBBCaB-----c----b-bc---b-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
82b339769d119c3a4dcb2755a6729c8947188f95b2b297fc8d3

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 37 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61

Sneak preview of next problem:
3pt or 5pt?
c90f1164d888eea148603a4b90a286e8bcafa1bbb1a41085a8418d3f
---
Tim Chow

Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?

<xn0mzk1qf2pwzgn000@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?
Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2021 16:06:13 +0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Fri, 25 Jun 2021 16:06 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=bCBBCaB-----c----b-bc---b-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
>82b339769d119c3a4dcb2755a6729c8947188f95b2b297fc8d3
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O | +---+
> | O | | O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | O | | X X |
> | O | | X X X X X |
> | O | | X O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 37 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, O own cube
>X to play 61
>
>Sneak preview of next problem:
>3pt or 5pt?
>c90f1164d888eea148603a4b90a286e8bcafa1bbb1a41085a8418d3f
>---
>Tim Chow

I would play 6/off 6/5*

Putting three on the Bar will allow me more time to escape if I get hit
on O's next roll.

Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?
Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2021 18:31:38 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Fri, 25 Jun 2021 22:31 UTC

On 6/25/2021 9:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=bCBBCaB-----c----b-bc---b-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
> 82b339769d119c3a4dcb2755a6729c8947188f95b2b297fc8d3
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |             O    |   | O  O           O | +---+
>  |             O    |   | O  O           O | | 2 |
>  |                  |   |    O             | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  | O                |   |       X        X |
>  | O                |   | X     X  X  X  X |
>  | O                |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 37  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 61

X leaves 11 shots whether he takes off one or two. If not hit, he's in
great shape to ice the gammon. If he is hit, then three on the bar
should give more chances to enter and circuit the board, so I hit with
the ace.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?

<sbf8vr$daj$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Two checkers on the bar: bear one or bear two?
Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 09:59:21 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 29 Jun 2021 13:59 UTC

XGID=bCBBCaB-----c----b-bc---b-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
82b339769d119c3a4dcb2755a6729c8947188f95b2b297fc8d3

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 37 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61

It's the same number of shots either way, and if X is not hit back
immediately then he should cruise on to an easy gammon. What about
backgammons? There are some backgammons to be had, and obviously
hitting will win more backgammons. More importantly, what if X is
hit? X doesn't have to be worried about getting redoubled any time
soon, so it's mostly a matter of giving himself more time to get
around safely. Hitting is more helpful than taking another checker
off, as far as that goes. So all the factors point toward hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 6/5* 6/Off eq:+1.679
Player: 90.46% (G:83.47% B:7.76%)
Opponent: 9.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+1.675..+1.683) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 1/Off eq:+1.563 (-0.116)
Player: 88.63% (G:80.16% B:4.56%)
Opponent: 11.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.558..+1.568) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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