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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Break the rearmost point?

SubjectAuthor
* Break the rearmost point?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Break the rearmost point?ah....Clem
`- Rollout: Break the rearmost point?Timothy Chow

1
Break the rearmost point?

<sbj7b6$dnm$3@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break the rearmost point?
Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 21:55:50 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 1 Jul 2021 01:55 UTC

XGID=-aa--aE-C---bE-B-bcd--a---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
4fb036844b639b0e3e8002f120c361ee8f79f85f50bd43c3190

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Sneak preview of next problem:
Prime versus prime: slot the bar point?
03fd1dc3f56068af1a77c018da241f37e936a46ca6da17180c028824
---
Tim Chow

Re: Break the rearmost point?

<sbq166$gju$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Break the rearmost point?
Date: Sat, 3 Jul 2021 11:53:41 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 3 Jul 2021 15:53 UTC

On 6/30/2021 9:55 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa--aE-C---bE-B-bcd--a---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
> 4fb036844b639b0e3e8002f120c361ee8f79f85f50bd43c3190
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     X     O  O |   | O        O       |
>  | X     X     O  O |   | O                |
>  | X              O |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X  O        O  O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 149  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 53
>

OTB I'd probably just make the three point. A nice homeboard point while
unstacking the six has to be worth something. 15/10 8/5* is the
bold/pure play and if the safe v bold criteria pointed to bold I'd do
that. But it doesn't - X is ahead in the race and has fewer checkers
back (as in none).

8/3 5/3

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Break the rearmost point?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break the rearmost point?
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2021 17:52:19 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 4 Jul 2021 21:52 UTC

XGID=-aa--aE-C---bE-B-bcd--a---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
4fb036844b639b0e3e8002f120c361ee8f79f85f50bd43c3190

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Safe versus bold criteria suggest a safe play, and there's a nice
constructive safe play: 8/3 6/3. XG doesn't think that that's a
terrible blunder, but prefers to take advantage of O's temporarily
weak board and stripped midpoint to start clearing the 15pt with
the slightly less safe 15/10 13/10.

1. Rollout¹ 15/10 13/10 eq:+0.303
Player: 58.63% (G:10.01% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 41.37% (G:9.99% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.291..+0.316) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.266 (-0.037)
Player: 57.38% (G:10.61% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 42.62% (G:10.91% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.251..+0.281) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:+0.207 (-0.096)
Player: 55.77% (G:13.82% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 44.23% (G:13.18% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.192..+0.222) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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