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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

SubjectAuthor
* 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?Timothy Chow
+* Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?ah....Clem
|`* Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?Stick Rice
| `- Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?ah....Clem
`* Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?Stick Rice

1
17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

<sbtapq$i8e$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2021 17:56:07 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 4 Jul 2021 21:56 UTC

XGID=-CBCCb----B-----aB-cbbabb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
78b2c5c8f742f68ca741e272a506099e774693d8ccdb3944437

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 82 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

Sneak preview of next problem:
Run the last checker?
bed60e46b0cf1ba1f9b7225c017574989971af153b99981034cd7077
---
Tim Chow

Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2021 18:22:00 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 41
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 by: ah....Clem - Sun, 4 Jul 2021 22:22 UTC

On 7/4/2021 5:56 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CBCCb----B-----aB-cbbabb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> 78b2c5c8f742f68ca741e272a506099e774693d8ccdb3944437
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |          O  X    |   | O  O  O  O  O  O | +---+
>  |             X    |   | O  O  O     O  O | | 2 |
>  |                  |   | O                | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |       X  X     X |
>  |       X          |   |    O  X  X  X  X |
>  |       X          |   |    O  X  X  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 82  O: 94 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 21

My first instinct was to play the anti-joker 16/14. Leaving a checker
on the 15 allows O to enter and hit with a 55. Except our ten point
blocks that making 55 a bad roll for O.

It seems to boil down to leaving the blots 1 or 3 pips apart. Usually 1
apart does a better job of covering the outfield and is more likely to
be able to point. Plus leaving a checker on the 17 makes it harder to
safety that checker on the ten. It's probably close, but QF makes me
think it's not as close as expected.

17/16* 17/15.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

<3d502f38-030b-435d-93f7-a2d32ca10d0an@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
Injection-Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2021 16:35:22 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 5 Jul 2021 16:35 UTC

On Sunday, July 4, 2021 at 6:22:01 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 7/4/2021 5:56 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-CBCCb----B-----aB-cbbabb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> > 78b2c5c8f742f68ca741e272a506099e774693d8ccdb3944437
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
> > | X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
> > | | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X X |
> > | X | | O X X X X |
> > | X | | O X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 82 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 21
> My first instinct was to play the anti-joker 16/14. Leaving a checker
> on the 15 allows O to enter and hit with a 55. Except our ten point
> blocks that making 55 a bad roll for O.
>
> It seems to boil down to leaving the blots 1 or 3 pips apart. Usually 1
> apart does a better job of covering the outfield and is more likely to
> be able to point. Plus leaving a checker on the 17 makes it harder to
> safety that checker on the ten. It's probably close, but QF makes me
> think it's not as close as expected.
>
>
> 17/16* 17/15.
>
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

What about leaving [66] as a hitter?

Stick

Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2021 14:14:09 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 12
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 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 5 Jul 2021 18:14 UTC

On 7/5/2021 12:35 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

>
> What about leaving [66] as a hitter?

I didn't see that. Sounds like another good reason to play both
checkers from the 17.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

<sc4748$q4c$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
Date: Wed, 7 Jul 2021 08:36:23 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Jul 2021 12:36 UTC

XGID=-CBCCb----B-----aB-cbbabb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
78b2c5c8f742f68ca741e272a506099e774693d8ccdb3944437

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 82 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

If you notice (which I did not, OTB) that 17/16*/14 leaves O with
a 66 joker, then you will probably play 17/16* 17/15, since there
is no other obvious reason to prefer one play over the other.
Perhaps that is all there is to say about this position, but I was
still amazed to see that XG thought the equity difference was in
whopper territory. For comparison, I have created a variant where
there is a similar "66 joker" at play, but XG estimates an equity
difference of only about .06. So I think there's something extra
going on in the original position, but I'm not sure what it is.

1. Rollout¹ 17/15 17/16* eq:+0.234
Player: 64.24% (G:7.66% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 35.76% (G:5.17% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.229..+0.240) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/16* 16/14 eq:+0.135 (-0.099)
Player: 60.51% (G:8.45% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 39.49% (G:7.62% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.129..+0.142) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 17/16* 3/1 eq:+0.124 (-0.111)
Player: 60.15% (G:7.75% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 39.85% (G:7.52% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.115..+0.132) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 17/16* 4/2 eq:+0.113 (-0.122)
Player: 59.84% (G:7.99% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 40.16% (G:7.84% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.106..+0.119) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CBCCb----B-----a-Bcbbabb-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
| X | | O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 84 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 18/15 18/16* eq:+0.226
Player: 64.05% (G:7.40% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 35.95% (G:5.09% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.220..+0.231) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/13 eq:+0.166 (-0.059)
Player: 61.61% (G:7.95% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 38.39% (G:6.65% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.160..+0.172) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 17/16*/14 or 17/16* 17/15?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Thu, 8 Jul 2021 01:05 UTC

On Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 8:36:26 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CBCCb----B-----aB-cbbabb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> 78b2c5c8f742f68ca741e272a506099e774693d8ccdb3944437
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
> | X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | X | | O X X X X |
> | X | | O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 82 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 21
> If you notice (which I did not, OTB) that 17/16*/14 leaves O with
> a 66 joker, then you will probably play 17/16* 17/15, since there
> is no other obvious reason to prefer one play over the other.
> Perhaps that is all there is to say about this position, but I was
> still amazed to see that XG thought the equity difference was in
> whopper territory. For comparison, I have created a variant where
> there is a similar "66 joker" at play, but XG estimates an equity
> difference of only about .06. So I think there's something extra
> going on in the original position, but I'm not sure what it is.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 17/15 17/16* eq:+0.234
> Player: 64.24% (G:7.66% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 35.76% (G:5.17% B:0.11%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.229..+0.240) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 17/16* 16/14 eq:+0.135 (-0.099)
> Player: 60.51% (G:8.45% B:0.09%)
> Opponent: 39.49% (G:7.62% B:0.19%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.129..+0.142) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 17/16* 3/1 eq:+0.124 (-0.111)
> Player: 60.15% (G:7.75% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 39.85% (G:7.52% B:0.15%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.115..+0.132) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 17/16* 4/2 eq:+0.113 (-0.122)
> Player: 59.84% (G:7.99% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 40.16% (G:7.84% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.106..+0.119) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-CBCCb----B-----a-Bcbbabb-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O O O | +---+
> | X | | O O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | X | | O X X X X |
> | X | | O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 84 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 32
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 18/15 18/16* eq:+0.226
> Player: 64.05% (G:7.40% B:0.05%)
> Opponent: 35.95% (G:5.09% B:0.10%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.220..+0.231) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/13 eq:+0.166 (-0.059)
> Player: 61.61% (G:7.95% B:0.05%)
> Opponent: 38.39% (G:6.65% B:0.15%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.160..+0.172) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The short version is has to do with how those two outfield checkers link up/make it home. It's clearly better if they can both directly reach the made 10pt for safety. It's better for numbers like [62 54 53 51] etc...

Stick

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor