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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Run the last checker?

SubjectAuthor
* Run the last checker?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Run the last checker?badgolferman
+- Re: Run the last checker?ah...Clem
`- Rollout: Run the last checker?Timothy Chow

1
Run the last checker?

<sc1nkd$at7$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Run the last checker?
Date: Tue, 6 Jul 2021 09:59:39 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Jul 2021 13:59 UTC

XGID=---BbCCb--B-AB--Aaac-bb-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
8386e723bdc342e93b93ea44330c8288fe1b370fdc66d7dfc93

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O | | X X O X |
| X X O | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Sneak preview of next problem:
PoH or hit in the outfield?
ce43190bd33870d0c28353cf8a6c46ae07dc282ad2bc4e7a2e8eb182
---
Tim Chow

Re: Run the last checker?

<xn0n03l52a4zkxk002@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run the last checker?
Date: Wed, 7 Jul 2021 13:14:13 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 7 Jul 2021 13:14 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=---BbCCb--B-AB--Aaac-bb-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
>8386e723bdc342e93b93ea44330c8288fe1b370fdc66d7dfc93
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O O | | O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | X O | | X X O X |
> | X X O | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 138 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 65
>
>Sneak preview of next problem:
>PoH or hit in the outfield?
>ce43190bd33870d0c28353cf8a6c46ae07dc282ad2bc4e7a2e8eb182
>---
>Tim Chow

O will hit with 1,2,3 if I don't run. O will hit with 5,7,8,10 if I do
run.

I think it's better to run. Bar/14

Re: Run the last checker?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run the last checker?
Date: Wed, 7 Jul 2021 15:18:16 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Wed, 7 Jul 2021 19:18 UTC

On 7/6/2021 9:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BbCCb--B-AB--Aaac-bb-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
> 8386e723bdc342e93b93ea44330c8288fe1b370fdc66d7dfc93
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        X  O  O |   | O     O  O     O |
>  | X                |   | O     O  O     O |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  | X |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X  X             |
>  |       X        O |   | X  X  O  X       |
>  | X     X        O |   | X  X  O  X       |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 138  O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

X has to leave a blot, and making O hit on the 20 gives more counterplay
(unless she points on X's head). And behind in the race probably better
to stay back, even though there's still plenty of contact.

bar/20 12/6.

Rollout: Run the last checker?

<sc6u3o$874$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Run the last checker?
Date: Thu, 8 Jul 2021 09:20:53 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 8 Jul 2021 13:20 UTC

XGID=---BbCCb--B-AB--Aaac-bb-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
8386e723bdc342e93b93ea44330c8288fe1b370fdc66d7dfc93

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O | | X X O X |
| X X O | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

I was startled to see that XG deemed bar/14 to be a double whopper
with cheese, especially since shifting X's 12pt blot one pip to
the 11pt caused the top two plays to be nearly equal in equity
(see variant). It's true that in the variant, O's sevens are
duplicated after bar/14, but I still would not have expected the
change in equity to be so dramatic.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 12/6 eq:-0.138
Player: 48.21% (G:15.58% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 51.79% (G:26.83% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.148..-0.129) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/14 eq:-0.367 (-0.228)
Player: 43.66% (G:10.48% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 56.34% (G:32.09% B:1.23%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.386..-0.348) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 16/10 eq:-0.452 (-0.314)
Player: 41.89% (G:12.75% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 58.11% (G:34.95% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.471..-0.434) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---BbCCb--BA-B--Aaac-bb-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O | | X X O X |
| X X O | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 11/5 eq:-0.146
Player: 47.61% (G:15.97% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 52.39% (G:27.27% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.157..-0.136) - [94.8%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/14 eq:-0.159 (-0.013)
Player: 46.32% (G:10.40% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 53.68% (G:28.65% B:1.14%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.170..-0.148) - [5.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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