XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O X | O | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-2
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O X | O | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-2
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>

You can call it whatever you want, but I wouldn't call it a blitz cube.
Only nine in the zone and she has the ace point so we won't be able to
blitz her off the board.

I think "action cube" is the proper term. Another homeboard point or
another builder or two and we've lost our market so ship it.

O may be able to take this - not al that many gammon losses due to the
ace point, X still has a runner to spring, could make a second anchor,
only a two point board, only nine in the zone, O owns her five point.
Seems like a take to me.

D/T,

On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O X | O | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-2
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

I would call this a blitz cube. My first inclination is that this
is a big pass. X is almost 40 pips up and O has two on the bar.
One of X's back checkers has escaped. Trying to find compensation
for O, I note that O is anchored and has made her 5pt, and that X
has only a two-point board. It still doesn't look enough to me.
D/P for me.

---
Tim Chow

On 7/10/2021 11:52 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
> I think "action cube" is the proper term. Another homeboard point or
> another builder or two and we've lost our market so ship it.

This has come up before---an "action double" is based on immediate
blot-hitting chances, so it isn't quite the right term here.

https://www.bkgm.com/glossary.html

> O may be able to take this - not al that many gammon losses due to the
> ace point, X still has a runner to spring, could make a second anchor,
> only a two point board, only nine in the zone, O owns her five point.
> Seems like a take to me.

If O can take this, I think it will be primarily because she still has
good winning chances, not because she doesn't have many gammon losses.
An ace-point anchor is not very good insurance against a gammon loss.

---
Tim Chow

On Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:31:03 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O O X |
> > | X O | | O O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | O X | O | |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X X O |
> > | O X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-2
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> I would call this a blitz cube. My first inclination is that this
> is a big pass. X is almost 40 pips up and O has two on the bar.
> One of X's back checkers has escaped. Trying to find compensation
> for O, I note that O is anchored and has made her 5pt, and that X
> has only a two-point board. It still doesn't look enough to me.
> D/P for me.

I doubled this against XG and was confidently expecting a pass.
XG took (and then beat me).
It rolled out to a marginal take but the rollout is on a different computer.
Feel free to remind me if you're interested in more details but D/T is the answer.
Combining your first and second posts, you seem to think the decision might not
be completely clear so well done for getting that aspect.
Nearly all my posts have been marginal cube actions but that's because I post something
if I feel an element of surprise at the result. If something is a 1.4 drop, the drop is probably
obvious and not worth posting.

Paul

On Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 12:35:05 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 7/10/2021 11:52 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
> > I think "action cube" is the proper term. Another homeboard point or
> > another builder or two and we've lost our market so ship it.
> This has come up before---an "action double" is based on immediate
> blot-hitting chances, so it isn't quite the right term here.
....
I looked at the glossary. However, I think that in practice, another criterion
for an "action double" is that the cuber has a large probability of missing,
so it's a double and easy take.
If the cuber's main equity comes from hitting on the next shake, but if the
cuber is a strong favourite to hit, leading to D/P, I don't think people call it
an "action cube". Or do they?

Paul

On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O X | O | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Marginal double. Whopper with cheese to pass despite two on the roof.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.49% (G:30.65% B:3.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.51% (G:6.08% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.02% (G:30.93% B:4.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.98% (G:6.28% B:0.28%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.592, Double=+1.171

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.838 (-0.037)
Double/Take: +0.874
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.126)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.818..+0.857)
Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (+0.850..+0.899)

Double Decision confidence: 98.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 2:58:51 AM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O X | O | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Marginal double. Whopper with cheese to pass despite two on the roof.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 65.49% (G:30.65% B:3.88%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 34.51% (G:6.08% B:0.26%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 65.02% (G:30.93% B:4.13%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 34.98% (G:6.28% B:0.28%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.592, Double=+1.171
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.838 (-0.037)
> Double/Take: +0.874
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.126)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.818..+0.857)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (+0.850..+0.899)
>
> Double Decision confidence: 98.9%
> Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
>
> Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Thanks a lot for doing the rollout for me.
As a reward for this valuable service, you now get the right to
define the problem type.
Is it a blitz cube, an action cube, a sandwich cube or an ice cube?

The answer is that the cube type is whatever Walt says it is.

Paul

Similar verdict, but the D/T equity is slightly above 0.9.
Of course there is still a lot of variance.

XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O X | O | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.62% (G:30.84% B:3.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.38% (G:6.09% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.16% (G:31.20% B:4.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.84% (G:6.03% B:0.30%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.853 (-0.059)
Double/Take: +0.912
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.088)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.837..+0.869)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.889..+0.935)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

On 7/10/2021 4:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=bb--B-C-D---dD--Ab-cb-A---:0:0:1:00:0:2:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O X | O | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 194 X-O: 0-2
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

I looked in my files to see if I had any positions similar
to this one. The closest match was the position below. If
I had remembered XG's verdict on this position, I guess I
would have fared better with Paul's problem.

XGID=bb-B--E-C---cC--Ab-d-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 185 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.92% (G:32.32% B:4.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.08% (G:7.31% B:0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.45% (G:32.10% B:4.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.55% (G:7.34% B:0.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.781 (-0.039)
Double/Take: +0.820
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.180)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.763..+0.800)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.797..+0.843)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow