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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or make the 5pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit or make the 5pt?badgolferman
+* Re: Hit or make the 5pt?ah....Clem
|`- Re: Hit or make the 5pt?badgolferman
+- Re: Hit or make the 5pt?ah...Clem
`- Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow

1
Hit or make the 5pt?

<scdb2s$kml$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2021 19:39:07 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Jul 2021 23:39 UTC

XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Sneak preview of next problem:
Hit or make the 5pt? 2
0ef594cd40f87c77549c08aa2dabd459bbc2ede48feb052946616c21
---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or make the 5pt?

<xn0n09cn136123d000@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2021 16:33:57 +0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Sun, 11 Jul 2021 16:33 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X |
> | X O O | | O X |
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X X O | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 148 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 41
>
>Sneak preview of next problem:
>Hit or make the 5pt? 2
>0ef594cd40f87c77549c08aa2dabd459bbc2ede48feb052946616c21
>---
>Tim Chow

No matter what's played it will be rather messy. Might as well make
the 5-point and hold both of them. 9/5, 6/5.

Re: Hit or make the 5pt?

<scipu2$kqr$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2021 21:23:14 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 13 Jul 2021 01:23 UTC

On 7/10/2021 7:39 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> 01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Gam7
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X                |
>  | O     X  X  X  O |   | X              O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 148  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41

We're ahead in the race, so hitting is not so important. But a solid
four prime with two checkers stuck behind it seems very strong.

Maybe this is one of those when in doubt make the five point but it
seems like 10/7* 8/7 is stronger than making the five point.

Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Hit or make the 5pt?

<xn0n0bwbt5o3h4z000@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2021 10:35:17 +0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Tue, 13 Jul 2021 10:35 UTC

ah....Clem wrote:

>On 7/10/2021 7:39 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
>>XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>>01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4
>>
>>X:Player 1   O:Player 2
>>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Gam7
>>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>>  |             O    |   | O                |
>>  |                  |   | O                |
>>  |                  |   | O                |
>>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>>  |                  |   | X                |
>>  |                  |   | X                |
>>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>>  | O        X  X    |   | X                |
>>  | O     X  X  X  O |   | X              O |
>>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>>Pip count  X: 148  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
>>Cube: 1
>>X to play 41
>
>We're ahead in the race, so hitting is not so important. But a solid
>four prime with two checkers stuck behind it seems very strong.
>
>Maybe this is one of those when in doubt make the five point but it
>seems like 10/7* 8/7 is stronger than making the five point.
>
>
>
>Ah....Clem
>The future is fun, the future is fair.

That play is illegal.

Re: Hit or make the 5pt?

<sckdri$egi$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2021 12:09:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Tue, 13 Jul 2021 16:09 UTC

On 7/10/2021 7:39 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> 01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X             |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X                |
>  | O     X  X  X  O |   | X              O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 148  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41

Try this again with legal moves

If we make the five point XG can hit with a 2 or 1 plus most 8s and 9s.
That's a lot of shots. I'll play 10/6 8/7*. Not so many shots and I
should be able to make some homeboard points soon.

Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?

<scqp80$l9t$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2021 22:00:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 67
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 16 Jul 2021 02:00 UTC

XGID=-a----EaCBA-cBb--c-eB-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
01fda71442c18c80cf2ac3b5d977a21245f20b5c931400b63b4

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

10/6 8/7* is not all that far behind 9/5 6/5 in the rollout, but XG
favors making the 5pt despite giving O a lot more hitting rolls.

1. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.240
Player: 54.98% (G:14.54% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 45.02% (G:6.54% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.234..+0.247) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 8/7* eq:+0.208 (-0.032)
Player: 53.91% (G:15.79% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 46.09% (G:8.00% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.201..+0.215) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/3 eq:+0.189 (-0.052)
Player: 53.46% (G:16.22% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 46.54% (G:8.79% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.181..+0.196) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 10/9 6/2 eq:+0.150 (-0.090)
Player: 53.04% (G:12.78% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 46.96% (G:7.08% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.138..+0.162) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout² 13/9 8/7* eq:+0.149 (-0.092)
Player: 52.53% (G:15.13% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 47.47% (G:8.94% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.133..+0.164) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout² 10/5 eq:+0.124 (-0.116)
Player: 52.30% (G:13.24% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 47.70% (G:7.28% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.112..+0.136) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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