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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or make the 5pt? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or make the 5pt? 2Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit or make the 5pt? 2badgolferman
`- Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt? 2Timothy Chow

1
Hit or make the 5pt? 2

<scqpau$l9t$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or make the 5pt? 2
Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2021 22:02:06 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 16 Jul 2021 02:02 UTC

XGID=a--aB-DBCA--c----dbdC-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
92a607b4da1c879ed61972a9874029230273626b73018b41074

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Sneak preview of next problem:
They say 8/2 is illegal in Denmark
7077059c8f97049521026ec47027534c141edfc7946f21c520c9232f
---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or make the 5pt? 2

<xn0n0g4vc9zhiqi000@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt? 2
Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2021 11:05:15 +0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Fri, 16 Jul 2021 11:05 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=a--aB-DBCA--c----dbdC-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>92a607b4da1c879ed61972a9874029230273626b73018b41074
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O X | +---+
> | O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | O | | O X | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 139 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, O own cube
>X to play 42
>
>Sneak preview of next problem:
>They say 8/2 is illegal in Denmark
>7077059c8f97049521026ec47027534c141edfc7946f21c520c9232f

Just hit and start the blitz.

9/3*

Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt? 2

<sd19ld$qgl$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt? 2
Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2021 09:17:31 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 18 Jul 2021 13:17 UTC

XGID=a--aB-DBCA--c----dbdC-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
92a607b4da1c879ed61972a9874029230273626b73018b41074

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X | +---+
| O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Typically, in a blitz, making a high home-board point is better
than hitting a second checker, in part because it helps with
priming as well as blitzing. Here, the rollout indicates that
9/3* and 9/5 7/5 are fairly close, but 9/3* gets the nod. Making
the 5pt comes at the expense of the bar point, so it gives O
10 hitting rolls---almost as many as 9/3* does, and O's return
shots after 9/5 7/5 are generally stronger than her return shots
after 9/3* are.

1. Rollout¹ 9/3* eq:+0.397
Player: 65.28% (G:28.52% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 34.72% (G:5.84% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.388..+0.406) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5 7/5 eq:+0.361 (-0.036)
Player: 64.61% (G:25.66% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 35.39% (G:5.30% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.352..+0.370) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/3* 6/4 eq:+0.332 (-0.065)
Player: 62.75% (G:29.54% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 37.25% (G:6.87% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.323..+0.342) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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