novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Cube action from the bar

Cube action from the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Cube action from the bar
Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2021 08:06:05 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 22 Jul 2021 12:06 UTC

XGID=-aa-BCBBB----B---aacbca-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This isn't part of the cryptographic series but I forgot to
give a sneak preview last time so I'll remedy that here.

Make the 5pt?
8d9046bfe6c3458fdf7a9416b5b752cdc0f2169f0c6c4313e754f2b0
---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Cube action from the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Cube action from the bar
Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2021 09:38:15 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 25 Jul 2021 13:38 UTC

XGID=-aa-BCBBB----B---aacbca-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

This kind of problem is tough. O has two checkers behind X's
five-prime, and they are not even at the edge. She is in danger
of collapsing, and I know many people would drop this cube in a
flash. But according to the rollout it's a big take. This sort
of decision is pretty sensitive to the details, though; see the
variant, which is on the take/pass borderline.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.51% (G:22.34% B:1.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.49% (G:16.23% B:0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.74% (G:22.71% B:1.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.26% (G:16.09% B:0.12%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.662 (-0.130)
Double/Take: +0.792
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.208)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.649..+0.676)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.772..+0.812)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa-BCBBB----B----accca-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.65% (G:23.24% B:1.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.35% (G:13.54% B:0.12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.22% (G:23.30% B:1.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.78% (G:13.44% B:0.11%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.770 (-0.230)
Double/Take: +1.007 (+0.007)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.758..+0.782)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.990..+1.025)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar

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From: bks...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar
Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2021 13:51:10 -0000 (UTC)
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by: Bradley K. Sherman - Sun, 25 Jul 2021 13:51 UTC

Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | X | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 141 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X on roll, cube action
> ...
> ... But according to the rollout it's a big take.
> ...

Yow! My cubology neural net needs to be recalibrated.
Probably the five-prime subnet needs to be reabsorbed
and regrown.

--bks

Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 25 Jul 2021 15:16 UTC

On Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 2:38:16 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa-BCBBB----B---aacbca-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | X | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> This kind of problem is tough. O has two checkers behind X's
> five-prime, and they are not even at the edge. She is in danger
> of collapsing, and I know many people would drop this cube in a
> flash. But according to the rollout it's a big take. This sort
> of decision is pretty sensitive to the details, though; see the
> variant, which is on the take/pass borderline.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.51% (G:22.34% B:1.62%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.49% (G:16.23% B:0.14%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.74% (G:22.71% B:1.70%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.26% (G:16.09% B:0.12%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.662 (-0.130)
> Double/Take: +0.792
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.208)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.649..+0.676)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.772..+0.812)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-aa-BCBBB----B----accca-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | X | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 72.65% (G:23.24% B:1.41%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.35% (G:13.54% B:0.12%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 73.22% (G:23.30% B:1.54%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 26.78% (G:13.44% B:0.11%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.770 (-0.230)
> Double/Take: +1.007 (+0.007)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.758..+0.782)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.990..+1.025)
>

I (wrongly) saw the original position as a double and marginal pass. It seems too much work
to get to the edge of the prime and get both sixes. I'm not surprised it's a big take, though.

Paul

Don't get even -- get odd!

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Cube action from the bar

Subject	Author
Cube action from the bar	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Cube action from the bar	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar	Bradley K. Sherman
Re: Rollout: Cube action from the bar	peps...@gmail.com