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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Make the 4pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Make the 4pt?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Make the 4pt?badgolferman
`- Rollout: Make the 4pt?Timothy Chow

1
Make the 4pt?

<sd94ui$ifi$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Make the 4pt?
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2021 08:46:09 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 21 Jul 2021 12:46 UTC

XGID=--a---C-DBb-cB----CcAbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
e653913ad3535df8ac0d0230a1eefb08e55e5415a62a84e9f3e

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O X O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Make the 4pt?

<xn0n0nga61uqlun002@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Make the 4pt?
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2021 17:49:29 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 21 Jul 2021 17:49 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=--a---C-DBb-cB----CcAbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>e653913ad3535df8ac0d0230a1eefb08e55e5415a62a84e9f3e
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X | | O X O O O |
> | X X | | O O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O O X X | | X |
> | O O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 168 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 54
>
>---
>Tim Chow

Making the 4-point seems worthy but I suspect you wouldn't have posted
this if it was that simple. Let's go with 20/11 since that leave only
one direct shot with a 1.

Rollout: Make the 4pt?

<sded5l$bv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Make the 4pt?
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2021 08:37:07 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 23 Jul 2021 12:37 UTC

XGID=--a---C-DBb-cB----CcAbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O X O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

O has a strong board and X therefore wants to avoid giving her more
shots and blots than necessary. Making the 4pt is a whopper according
to the rollout. If O's blot were on X's 1pt instead of 2pt, duplicating
her 8's to hit, then the rollout indicates a much smaller equity gap.

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.486
Player: 39.68% (G:7.60% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 60.32% (G:22.88% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.497..-0.474) - [90.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:-0.497 (-0.011)
Player: 39.87% (G:8.10% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.13% (G:27.66% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.508..-0.485) - [9.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/4 8/4 eq:-0.591 (-0.105)
Player: 38.92% (G:9.31% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 61.08% (G:32.25% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.609..-0.573) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a----C-DBb-cB----CcAbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O X O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.469
Player: 39.97% (G:7.56% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 60.03% (G:22.13% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.479..-0.458) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/4 8/4 eq:-0.505 (-0.036)
Player: 39.32% (G:9.35% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 60.68% (G:28.95% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.519..-0.491) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:-0.546 (-0.077)
Player: 38.57% (G:7.61% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 61.43% (G:27.27% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.558..-0.534) - [0.0%]

¹ 2285 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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