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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Too many points

SubjectAuthor
* Too many pointsTimothy Chow
+- Re: Too many pointsbadgolferman
`- Rollout: Too many pointsTimothy Chow

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Too many points

<sdmd09$utk$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Too many points
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2021 09:23:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 26 Jul 2021 13:23 UTC

XGID=----bCBBBc----b-BbBbbB-b--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O X | | O O X O | +---+
| O X O X | | O O X O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

Re: Too many points

<xn0n0uf2y8x4s8w000@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Too many points
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2021 16:30:53 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Mon, 26 Jul 2021 16:30 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=----bCBBBc----b-BbBbbB-b--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X O X | | O O X O | +---+
> | O X O X | | O O X O | | 2 |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 167 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, O own cube
>X to play 43
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I don't think it's wise to break up the four point prime yet. My play
would be 21/18, 5/1. That way there would only be one direct shot
exposed. Anything else leaves a myriad of shots.

Rollout: Too many points

<sdu6v7$lre$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Too many points
Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2021 08:29:19 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 29 Jul 2021 12:29 UTC

XGID=----bCBBBc----b-BbBbbB-b--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O X | | O O X O | +---+
| O X O X | | O O X O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

Like badgolferman, I tried 21/18 5/1, but XG prefers to volunteer a
ton of shots with 18/11. It seems that XG regards dumping to the 1pt
as too high a positional price to pay. If I move X's spare from his
5pt to his 6pt, then XG is much more favorably disposed toward 21/18
6/2 (see variant below).

I think it's also important that X is behind in the race; therefore,
strategically, he wants to keep his 4pt anchor for more contact, and
doesn't want to give it up prematurely.

If we're willing to volunteer a lot of shots, then why not 16/13 16/12?
O is happier to hit from her 16pt than to break her 8pt or 11pt to hit.

1. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq:-0.321
Player: 46.62% (G:11.37% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 53.38% (G:15.47% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.335..-0.308) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18 5/1 eq:-0.386 (-0.065)
Player: 44.53% (G:10.15% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 55.47% (G:16.15% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.399..-0.374) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/13 16/12 eq:-0.409 (-0.088)
Player: 44.37% (G:10.56% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 55.63% (G:16.67% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.423..-0.395) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/18 16/12 eq:-0.442 (-0.121)
Player: 45.02% (G:10.82% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 54.98% (G:21.93% B:1.06%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.457..-0.428) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/18 7/3 eq:-0.467 (-0.146)
Player: 43.16% (G:10.58% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 56.84% (G:20.46% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.484..-0.451) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 16/12 5/2 eq:-0.500 (-0.179)
Player: 41.56% (G:10.33% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 58.44% (G:18.66% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.515..-0.486) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 7/3 5/2 eq:-0.500 (-0.179)
Player: 40.73% (G:10.15% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 59.27% (G:16.36% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.513..-0.488) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----bBCBBc----b-BbBbbB-b--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O X | | O O X O | +---+
| O X O X | | O O X O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 6/3 eq:-0.323
Player: 46.20% (G:12.03% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 53.80% (G:15.14% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.330..-0.317) - [81.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq:-0.328 (-0.004)
Player: 46.57% (G:11.47% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 53.43% (G:15.57% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.334..-0.322) - [18.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/18 6/2 eq:-0.344 (-0.020)
Player: 46.13% (G:10.90% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 53.87% (G:15.84% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.354..-0.334) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 16/13 16/12 eq:-0.402 (-0.078)
Player: 44.62% (G:10.54% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.38% (G:16.66% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.409..-0.395) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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