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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Give up the 10pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Give up the 10pt?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Give up the 10pt?badgolferman
`- Rollout: Give up the 10pt?Timothy Chow

1
Give up the 10pt?

<se4t3u$l20$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Give up the 10pt?
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2021 21:24:13 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 1 Aug 2021 01:24 UTC

XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

Sneak preview of next problem:
Make the 18pt or the 11pt?
2a3986701061094b3c4598d8a529ca51c253eea110322d17d9963f53
---
Tim Chow

Re: Give up the 10pt?

<xn0n141c0h7b8cn001@nntp.aioe.org>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Give up the 10pt?
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2021 11:38:00 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: Aioe.org NNTP Server
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 by: badgolferman - Sun, 1 Aug 2021 11:38 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | X O | | X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X to play 54
>
>Sneak preview of next problem:
>Make the 18pt or the 11pt?
>2a3986701061094b3c4598d8a529ca51c253eea110322d17d9963f53
>---
>Tim Chow

I wouldn't. I think O is in trouble unless he gets 22, 44, 55.

Let's try shifting home board points. 6/1, 5/1.

Rollout: Give up the 10pt?

<sebcqr$1ag$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Give up the 10pt?
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2021 08:29:13 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 3 Aug 2021 12:29 UTC

XGID=--C-BBDb--B--B-----abcc-d-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
be01b38da7a3ea6642efa77eb97f40eef3ad11638bff42aa751

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 77 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

Playing 10/6 10/5 avoids wasting pips in the race, but gives up on
getting a double shot if O is forced to break anchor next turn with
61 62 64 65. In fact X might even be able to wait one more turn to
get the double shot.

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/1 eq:+0.270
Player: 53.64% (G:3.47% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 46.36% (G:1.87% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.264..+0.275) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.251 (-0.019)
Player: 52.64% (G:3.19% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 47.36% (G:2.21% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.245..+0.256) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/2 eq:+0.209 (-0.060)
Player: 51.08% (G:4.94% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 48.92% (G:2.36% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.204..+0.214) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/1 eq:+0.197 (-0.072)
Player: 51.30% (G:6.14% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 48.70% (G:3.33% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.192..+0.202) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.175 (-0.095)
Player: 50.53% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 49.47% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.170..+0.180) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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