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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Make the 18pt or the 11pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Make the 18pt or the 11pt?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Make the 18pt or the 11pt?Timothy Chow

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Make the 18pt or the 11pt?

<sebctp$1ag$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Make the 18pt or the 11pt?
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2021 08:30:49 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 3 Aug 2021 12:30 UTC

XGID=-b-a-aE-C--AdC----AcbbA-A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
eae46d985bb54e9a8778404e868d5469dace30d1490c0a7cee7

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 43

Sneak preview of next problem:
Buy now?
3fe681c0ce735c72fbd7af12768da950700f1fa4e44f23209dc4239d
---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Make the 18pt or the 11pt?

<sej9l5$snj$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Make the 18pt or the 11pt?
Date: Fri, 6 Aug 2021 08:24:02 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 6 Aug 2021 12:24 UTC

XGID=-b-a-aE-C--AdC----AcbbA-A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
eae46d985bb54e9a8778404e868d5469dace30d1490c0a7cee7

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 43

I liked the look of making the 11pt; the alternative of lifting
the 11pt blot to the 8pt looked inflexible to me. But X has the
weaker board and fewer checkers back and should be looking to make
an anchor. Two spares on the 8pt isn't so bad anyway since it
makes several of X's doublets play better.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 11/8 eq:+0.140
Player: 49.31% (G:12.12% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 50.69% (G:16.67% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.128..+0.151) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/11 eq:+0.032 (-0.107)
Player: 45.63% (G:11.85% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 54.37% (G:19.04% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.018..+0.047) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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