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The sunlights differ, but there is only one darkness. -- Ursula K. LeGuin, "The Dispossessed"

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Buy now?

SubjectAuthor
* Buy now?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Buy now?peps...@gmail.com
+- Rollout: Buy now?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Buy now?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Buy now?peps...@gmail.com

1
Buy now?

<sej9o9$snj$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Buy now?
Date: Fri, 6 Aug 2021 08:25:43 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 27
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 6 Aug 2021 12:25 UTC

XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

Sneak preview of next problem:
Step up?
6bb73e15fc21db78cd5cc033d15ab3b7cc7c2c8f1d404d6cfdc69854
---
Tim Chow

Re: Buy now?

<21094370-4894-4db3-aa3f-bb53474e321an@googlegroups.com>

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Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2021 12:39:26 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Buy now?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2021 19:39:27 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 8 Aug 2021 19:39 UTC

On Friday, August 6, 2021 at 1:25:47 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
> 051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 42
>
> Sneak preview of next problem:
> Step up?
> 6bb73e15fc21db78cd5cc033d15ab3b7cc7c2c8f1d404d6cfdc69854
> ---
> Tim Chow
7/3 7/5. Hitting the blot is much too dangerous.
As well as the immediate returns, the opponent can also miss and then hit on the next shot.
Even if we're missed, we're not favourite to clean up our blots.

Paul

Rollout: Buy now?

<sesoc9$lkv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Buy now?
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2021 22:30:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 90
Message-ID: <sesoc9$lkv$1@dont-email.me>
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:30 UTC

XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

O already has two checkers back, diminishing the need to send another
checker back. As Paul said, O's board is indeed too strong, but see
the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.299
Player: 58.09% (G:9.83% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 41.91% (G:6.03% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.288..+0.309) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/2 eq:+0.247 (-0.052)
Player: 56.92% (G:9.35% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 43.08% (G:5.89% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.237..+0.257) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.218 (-0.081)
Player: 56.29% (G:10.84% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 43.71% (G:15.25% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.206..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbb-b-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.343
Player: 60.17% (G:12.15% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 39.83% (G:14.00% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.333..+0.352) - [80.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.337 (-0.006)
Player: 58.90% (G:10.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 41.10% (G:5.70% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.327..+0.346) - [19.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Buy now?

<sesoeu$lkv$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Buy now?
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2021 22:31:58 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 90
Message-ID: <sesoeu$lkv$2@dont-email.me>
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:31 UTC

XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

O already has two checkers back, diminishing the need to send a third
checker back. O's board is indeed too strong to venture the hit, but
see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.299
Player: 58.09% (G:9.83% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 41.91% (G:6.03% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.288..+0.309) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/2 eq:+0.247 (-0.052)
Player: 56.92% (G:9.35% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 43.08% (G:5.89% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.237..+0.257) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.218 (-0.081)
Player: 56.29% (G:10.84% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 43.71% (G:15.25% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.206..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbb-b-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.343
Player: 60.17% (G:12.15% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 39.83% (G:14.00% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.333..+0.352) - [80.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.337 (-0.006)
Player: 58.90% (G:10.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 41.10% (G:5.70% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.327..+0.346) - [19.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Buy now?

<513bb97a-7bee-43c6-acb8-bfc6e56b927fn@googlegroups.com>

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Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 00:53:10 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Rollout: Buy now?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 07:53:10 +0000
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 10 Aug 2021 07:53 UTC

On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 at 3:32:00 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=---AbBDDB---b---a-Bbbbbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
> 051c4821946c03c64269554ac3b9c897da1f769cc3bd486725d
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 117 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 42
> O already has two checkers back, diminishing the need to send a third
> checker back. O's board is indeed too strong to venture the hit, but
> see the variant below.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.299
> Player: 58.09% (G:9.83% B:0.21%)
> Opponent: 41.91% (G:6.03% B:0.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.288..+0.309) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/2 eq:+0.247 (-0.052)
> Player: 56.92% (G:9.35% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 43.08% (G:5.89% B:0.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.237..+0.257) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 18/16* 7/3 eq:+0.218 (-0.081)
> Player: 56.29% (G:10.84% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 43.71% (G:15.25% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.206..+0.230) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
....

This is an incidental point, but here we see the difference between
a large conceptual error and a large equity error.
One can imagine a strongish player hitting here, but 7/5 6/2
seems a very strange play indeed which could only be played by a beginner.
It doesn't hit and it doesn't make a point.
However, in equity terms, 7/5 6/2 is actually better than hitting.
So I think 7/5 6/2 is a larger conceptual error than hitting but a smaller equity error.

Paul

1
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