novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon

A TG Problem

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Subject: A TG Problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 14 Aug 2021 20:09 UTC

I know the position isn't TG but the question is.
The TG question is: "Am I too good at math(s) to waste so much
time playing backgammon?"

Paul

XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: A TG Problem

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A TG Problem
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2021 23:15:56 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:15 UTC

On 8/14/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I know the position isn't TG but the question is.
> The TG question is: "Am I too good at math(s) to waste so much
> time playing backgammon?"
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X O |
> | O | | O O O X |
> | | | O O X |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | O | | | +---+
> | O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

I tend not to (re)double these sorts of positions because it
seems that X has too much work to do---he has to get three
checkers over O's prime, and if he doesn't cover his blot on
the 2pt, it might be four checkers behind the prime. Plus,
5's are duplicated to cover and jump out. But O does have a
blot on her 1pt and a good percentage of X's wins are gammons.
If X rolls something reasonable and O dances again then I think
X loses his market. RD/T.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A TG Problem

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Subject: Re: A TG Problem
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 17 Aug 2021 09:26 UTC

On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 4:15:59 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 8/14/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I know the position isn't TG but the question is.
> > The TG question is: "Am I too good at math(s) to waste so much
> > time playing backgammon?"
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O X O |
> > | O | | O O O X |
> > | | | O O X |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | | +---+
> > | O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> I tend not to (re)double these sorts of positions because it
> seems that X has too much work to do---he has to get three
> checkers over O's prime, and if he doesn't cover his blot on
> the 2pt, it might be four checkers behind the prime. Plus,
> 5's are duplicated to cover and jump out. But O does have a
> blot on her 1pt and a good percentage of X's wins are gammons.
> If X rolls something reasonable and O dances again then I think
> X loses his market. RD/T.

It's actually a clear hold according to the rollout. This surprised me (and probably you, too).
I'll post the rollout as soon as I get to my computer with XG.

Paul

Re: A TG Problem

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Subject: Re: A TG Problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 18 Aug 2021 10:16 UTC

On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 10:26:05 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 4:15:59 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On 8/14/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > I know the position isn't TG but the question is.
> > > The TG question is: "Am I too good at math(s) to waste so much
> > > time playing backgammon?"
> > >
> > > Paul
> > >
> > > XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
> > > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > >
> > > Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O | | O O O X O |
> > > | O | | O O O X |
> > > | | | O O X |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | O | | | +---+
> > > | O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> > > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
> > > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > I tend not to (re)double these sorts of positions because it
> > seems that X has too much work to do---he has to get three
> > checkers over O's prime, and if he doesn't cover his blot on
> > the 2pt, it might be four checkers behind the prime. Plus,
> > 5's are duplicated to cover and jump out. But O does have a
> > blot on her 1pt and a good percentage of X's wins are gammons.
> > If X rolls something reasonable and O dances again then I think
> > X loses his market. RD/T.
> It's actually a clear hold according to the rollout. This surprised me (and probably you, too).
> I'll post the rollout as soon as I get to my computer with XG.
>
> Paul

Before I came to the US to start grad studies in math(s) in 1989, I had never heard of the phrase
"don't make a liar out of me." In fact, when I first heard it, I thought the guy meant "Don't call me a liar."
and it seemed utterly bizarre because why would I call him that?
Anyway, the below rollout certainly does make a liar out of me since I didn't post the rollout
"as soon as I [got] to my computer with XG" but many hours afterwards.

The moral of the story? My rollouts are not always predictable. The way to get predictability
is to eat a tuna and mayo baguette. Then you can be sure it tastes of tuna and mayo.

Paul

XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 60.48% (G:22.19% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.52% (G:11.92% B:0.40%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.79% (G:22.26% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.21% (G:11.97% B:0.39%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.313, Double=+0.639

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.560
Redouble/Take: +0.346 (-0.213)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.440)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.6%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.547..+0.573)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.322..+0.370)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 36 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Everybody has something to conceal. -- Humphrey Bogart

interests / rec.games.backgammon / A TG Problem

Subject	Author
A TG Problem	peps...@gmail.com
Re: A TG Problem	Timothy Chow
Re: A TG Problem	peps...@gmail.com
Re: A TG Problem	peps...@gmail.com