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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or not?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or not?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit or not?Timothy Chow

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Hit or not?

<sf9o8v$aa5$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or not?
Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2021 20:48:31 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 15 Aug 2021 00:48 UTC

XGID=----aaE-D---cE---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
abd2cb37e08a0f0299361da2adfc11d62b861577a53abac0193

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or not?

<sfgc02$2ek$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or not?
Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2021 09:01:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 17 Aug 2021 13:01 UTC

XGID=----aaE-D---cE---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
abd2cb37e08a0f0299361da2adfc11d62b861577a53abac0193

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

With an equal race and a slightly weaker board, I did not think
that hitting (and risking getting that checker sent back) made sense,
but XG insists that it's best. Note that 22/16 6/4* duplicates 4's.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/4* eq:-0.221
Player: 45.91% (G:6.36% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 54.09% (G:15.35% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.234..-0.209) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/6 eq:-0.290 (-0.069)
Player: 43.74% (G:5.15% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 56.26% (G:14.03% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.301..-0.280) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/14 eq:-0.311 (-0.090)
Player: 42.81% (G:4.00% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 57.19% (G:11.28% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.322..-0.301) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----aaE-E---cD---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/4* eq:-0.127
Player: 48.16% (G:7.51% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 51.84% (G:14.64% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.136..-0.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/6 eq:-0.147 (-0.020)
Player: 47.38% (G:5.66% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 52.62% (G:11.96% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.155..-0.140) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 22/14 eq:-0.178 (-0.051)
Player: 46.63% (G:4.59% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 53.37% (G:10.27% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.188..-0.167) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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