Apparently, XG sees the below as being a restaurant meal (where you
pay later). But I was surprised that my money was turned down upfront.
It's a very difficult position to clear, and the opponent's two blots means
that I've got chances even if I'm hit now.
Why not pay now with a crushing racing lead if I'm missed and return
chances if I'm hit?

Paul

XGID=--BBBbCBB--Ba-----acbbbaa-:1:-1:1:63:0:6:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X | | X O X X X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 105 X-O: 0-6
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. XG Roller+ 7/4 7/1 eq:+0.311
Player: 69.12% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 30.88% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)

2. XG Roller+ 11/2 eq:+0.222 (-0.089)
Player: 63.05% (G:9.72% B:1.11%)
Opponent: 36.95% (G:4.38% B:0.09%)

3. 2-ply 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.034 (-0.278)
Player: 58.79% (G:6.94% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 41.21% (G:6.92% B:0.10%)

4. 2-ply 8/2 6/3 eq:+0.029 (-0.283)
Player: 58.86% (G:5.51% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 41.14% (G:6.05% B:0.07%)

5. 2-ply 7/1 6/3 eq:-0.002 (-0.314)
Player: 57.71% (G:6.29% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 42.29% (G:7.44% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On 7/22/2021 3:32 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Apparently, XG sees the below as being a restaurant meal (where you
> pay later). But I was surprised that my money was turned down upfront.
> It's a very difficult position to clear, and the opponent's two blots means
> that I've got chances even if I'm hit now.
> Why not pay now with a crushing racing lead if I'm missed and return
> chances if I'm hit?

Your opponent's position is going to get better on the next roll,
but soon after that it's likely to deteriorate. It's fairly likely
that you will be able to hold out until that point. It would be a
much closer call if your opponent had better timing (see Variant 1
below). Also, even though your opponent's board has two blots,
it's still pretty strong. Most of her 6's hit and cover at least
one blot. With the same pip count but blots high in her board,
paying now becomes more attractive (see Variant 2).

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=--BBBbCBB--Bb-----abbbbaa-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/1 eq:+0.339
Player: 70.54% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 29.46% (G:1.68% B:0.03%)

2. XG Roller++ 11/2 eq:+0.333 (-0.006)
Player: 67.96% (G:11.18% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 32.04% (G:3.65% B:0.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--BBBbCBB--Baa----abaabbb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X X | | X O X X X |
| O X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. XG Roller++ 11/2 eq:+0.371
Player: 68.65% (G:12.08% B:1.59%)
Opponent: 31.35% (G:3.04% B:0.05%)

2. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/1 eq:+0.338 (-0.033)
Player: 70.24% (G:2.60% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 29.76% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:32:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Apparently, XG sees the below as being a restaurant meal (where you
> pay later). But I was surprised that my money was turned down upfront.
> It's a very difficult position to clear, and the opponent's two blots means
> that I've got chances even if I'm hit now.
> Why not pay now with a crushing racing lead if I'm missed and return
> chances if I'm hit?
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=--BBBbCBB--Ba-----acbbbaa-:1:-1:1:63:0:6:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X X | | X O X X X |
> | O X X X | | X O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 88 O: 105 X-O: 0-6
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 63
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 7/4 7/1 eq:+0.311
> Player: 69.12% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 30.88% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 11/2 eq:+0.222 (-0.089)
> Player: 63.05% (G:9.72% B:1.11%)
> Opponent: 36.95% (G:4.38% B:0.09%)
>
> 3. 2-ply 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.034 (-0.278)
> Player: 58.79% (G:6.94% B:0.33%)
> Opponent: 41.21% (G:6.92% B:0.10%)
>
> 4. 2-ply 8/2 6/3 eq:+0.029 (-0.283)
> Player: 58.86% (G:5.51% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 41.14% (G:6.05% B:0.07%)
>
> 5. 2-ply 7/1 6/3 eq:-0.002 (-0.314)
> Player: 57.71% (G:6.29% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 42.29% (G:7.44% B:0.09%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Other than the obvious of his board is already strong enough if he hits you/a lot of hitting numbers cover, I think you're greatly overestimating how often you're forced to pay later. I'd be willing to bet it's less than half the games where you end up leaving a direct shot if you make the right play/don't pay now. You have several turns in general to clear points. What will happen often enough is you roll doubles or [53] or ... and people always forget about this variation, your opponent simply leaves. When the race isn't entirely blown there's always the chance that it's the opponent who rolls big and leaves (with big doubles here mainly obv).

Also, waiting on his board to get worse isn't really a thing here. (after it gets better) His board basically always gets better and he's able to hold it.

Stick