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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Another TG problem

SubjectAuthor
* Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
`* Re: Another TG problemTimothy Chow
 +- Re: Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
 +* Re: Another TG problemJ R
 |`* Re: Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
 | `- Re: Another TG problemTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Another TG problemTimothy Chow

1
Another TG problem

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Subject: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 7 Aug 2021 19:56 UTC

With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
But is this TG?

Paul

XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
10

Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O X X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | O | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: Another TG problem

<sepvv5$m7b$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Another TG problem
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2021 21:21:40 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 9 Aug 2021 01:21 UTC

On 8/7/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
> But is this TG?
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> 10
>
> Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O X X |
> | O | | O O O O X X |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | | O | | +---+
> | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

If X doesn't roll an immediate 5 or 6 then he's likely to crunch and be
in big trouble. This looks like a clear ND/T to me. Maybe it's close
to a beaver?

---
Tim Chow

Re: Another TG problem

<ddb50442-d2a0-4608-8d85-6aa4b7d4f354n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 9 Aug 2021 07:44 UTC

On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 2:21:43 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 8/7/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
> > But is this TG?
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > 10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | | +---+
> > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> If X doesn't roll an immediate 5 or 6 then he's likely to crunch and be
> in big trouble. This looks like a clear ND/T to me. Maybe it's close
> to a beaver?

It seems like I set the toughest quizzes ever.
It's a perfectly good double (fortunately, because I did double).
Let's define a crunching roll rigorously. I think that would be a roll where the optimal play
has the result that [(there exists an integer 1 <= k <= 5 such that the
number of checkers on our lowest k points is >= 2 * k + 1) and our inner board is not
closed]. There actually aren't so many.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 59.25% (G:42.74% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.75% (G:13.59% B:0.82%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.94% (G:43.13% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.06% (G:13.36% B:0.80%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.483, Double=+1.003

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.657 (-0.061)
Redouble/Take: +0.718
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.282)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.643..+0.670)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.696..+0.739)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: Another TG problem

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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Thu, 19 Aug 2021 10:03 UTC

On Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 9:21:43 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 8/7/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
> > But is this TG?
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > 10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | | +---+
> > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> If X doesn't roll an immediate 5 or 6 then he's likely to crunch and be
> in big trouble. This looks like a clear ND/T to me. Maybe it's close
> to a beaver?
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Do you really look at this position and not have a huge preference for which side you'd rather be?

Stick

Re: Another TG problem

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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 19 Aug 2021 11:33 UTC

On Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 11:03:27 AM UTC+1, J R wrote:
> On Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 9:21:43 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On 8/7/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
> > > But is this TG?
> > >
> > > Paul
> > >
> > > XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > > 10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | | O | | +---+
> > > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
> > > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > If X doesn't roll an immediate 5 or 6 then he's likely to crunch and be
> > in big trouble. This looks like a clear ND/T to me. Maybe it's close
> > to a beaver?
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> Do you really look at this position and not have a huge preference for which side you'd rather be?
>
> Stick
I would think that he obviously doesn't because he suggests "close to a beaver". A beaver would mean he prefers O --- "close to a beaver" means he doesn't have much of a preference.
AFAIK, no one who uses this forum is as good as you are.

Paul

Re: Another TG problem

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2021 08:37:07 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 19 Aug 2021 12:37 UTC

On 8/19/2021 7:33 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> AFAIK, no one who uses this forum is as good as you are.

Paul, do you know this one?

Everybody loves my baby, but my baby loves nobody but me.

Prove that I am my baby.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Another TG problem

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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 21 Aug 2021 21:21 UTC

On Monday, August 9, 2021 at 2:21:43 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 8/7/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > With 3 on the bar, XG can't take this.
> > But is this TG?
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=cB-BBBB-A---b-b----bbbbBB-:2:1:1:00:0:8:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > 10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | O | | O O O O X X |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | | +---+
> > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | O X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 140 O: 159 X-O: 0-8
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> If X doesn't roll an immediate 5 or 6 then he's likely to crunch and be
> in big trouble. This looks like a clear ND/T to me. Maybe it's close
> to a beaver?

Curiously, I got quite a similar position in a later game. I wonder if you would have misassessed this.
I can't be bothered to do a full rollout but I will post the analysis.
The partial rollout doesn't rate X's position quite as high as the analysis does.
It's actually a monster double which is fairly close to a pass.
I didn't even consider doubling, because of all the work I need to do to release my back checkers.

Paul

XGID=cBBCB-C-----b----bbbbBbA--:1:1:1:00:15:1X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
4:3:0:10

Score is X:15 O:14. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O X |
| O O | | O O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | O | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 159 X-O: 15-14
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 61.37% (G:45.83% B:0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.63% (G:8.04% B:0.34%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.611, Double=+1.251

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.767 (-0.204)
Redouble/Take: +0.971
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.029)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: Another TG problem

<sg1qcf$vk8$3@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=6927&group=rec.games.backgammon#6927

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Another TG problem
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2021 23:51:42 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 24 Aug 2021 03:51 UTC

On 8/21/2021 5:21 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=cBBCB-C-----b----bbbbBbA--:1:1:1:00:15:1X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> 4:3:0:10
>
> Score is X:15 O:14. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O X O X |
> | O O | | O O X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | | O | X X | +---+
> | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | O | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 106 O: 159 X-O: 15-14
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in XG Roller+
> Player Winning Chances: 61.37% (G:45.83% B:0.87%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 38.63% (G:8.04% B:0.34%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.611, Double=+1.251
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.767 (-0.204)
> Redouble/Take: +0.971
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.029)
>
> Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
>

I wouldn't have expected this to be so close to a pass but I would
have doubled I think. I see a big difference in that O's board is
not as strong and X has a high anchor, plus X has only 3 checkers
back and not 4. So X is not in as much trouble if he doesn't get
out right away, and by the same token he's doing much better if he
does get a checker out.

---
Tim Chow

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