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interests / rec.games.backgammon / My backgammon adage

SubjectAuthor
* My backgammon adagepeps...@gmail.com
+* Re: My backgammon adageTimothy Chow
|`- Re: My backgammon adagepeps...@gmail.com
`- Re: My backgammon adageJ R

1
My backgammon adage

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Subject: My backgammon adage
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 30 Aug 2021 19:56 UTC

Everyone loves the 5 point, but using the 8 to make the 5 (and thereby
losing the 8) isn't such a stellar gain. So in these situations, look for
something else to do. With 33, 6/3(2) (with 4 or more stacked on the 6) is better than 8/5(2).

Paul

Re: My backgammon adage

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: My backgammon adage
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2021 19:00:03 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 30 Aug 2021 23:00 UTC

On 8/30/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Everyone loves the 5 point, but using the 8 to make the 5 (and thereby
> losing the 8) isn't such a stellar gain. So in these situations, look for
> something else to do. With 33, 6/3(2) (with 4 or more stacked on the 6) is better than 8/5(2).

Here are a couple of third-roll positions where XG agrees with you.

XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---bAdb---A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3(2) eq:+0.357
Player: 58.50% (G:15.11% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 41.50% (G:9.34% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.351..+0.364) - [80.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/10(2) eq:+0.353 (-0.004)
Player: 58.70% (G:13.74% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 41.30% (G:8.73% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.347..+0.359) - [19.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/15 18/15 eq:+0.323 (-0.035)
Player: 59.16% (G:9.48% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 40.84% (G:8.76% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.316..+0.329) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/5(2) eq:+0.310 (-0.047)
Player: 57.15% (G:15.37% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 42.85% (G:9.66% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.303..+0.317) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

-------------------------------------------------------------------

XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e-A--AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 176 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 6/3(2) eq:-0.021
Player: 48.58% (G:12.86% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 51.42% (G:9.71% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.029..-0.014) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 8/5(2) eq:-0.051 (-0.029)
Player: 47.57% (G:13.76% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 52.43% (G:10.09% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.059..-0.042) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/18 21/18 eq:-0.080 (-0.059)
Player: 47.70% (G:11.25% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 52.30% (G:11.39% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.088..-0.072) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 13/10(2) eq:-0.081 (-0.059)
Player: 47.19% (G:12.41% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 52.81% (G:10.53% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.089..-0.072) - [0.0%]

¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------------------------------------------------------------------

But here's one where XG prefers the 5pt:

XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d---bAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/5(3) eq:+0.157
Player: 53.44% (G:19.36% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 46.56% (G:15.64% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.149..+0.165) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/3 6/3 eq:+0.134 (-0.024)
Player: 53.14% (G:16.75% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 46.86% (G:14.56% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.126..+0.141) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 6/3(2) eq:+0.121 (-0.036)
Player: 53.14% (G:18.08% B:1.08%)
Opponent: 46.86% (G:16.60% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.114..+0.128) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² Bar/22 24/21 6/3(2) eq:+0.093 (-0.064)
Player: 52.51% (G:15.95% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 47.49% (G:15.38% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.080..+0.106) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: My backgammon adage

<b456f0b5-0ed7-4754-8866-eed992da9f71n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: My backgammon adage
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2021 23:03:44 +0000
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 30 Aug 2021 23:03 UTC

On Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at 12:00:10 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 8/30/2021 3:56 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Everyone loves the 5 point, but using the 8 to make the 5 (and thereby
> > losing the 8) isn't such a stellar gain. So in these situations, look for
> > something else to do. With 33, 6/3(2) (with 4 or more stacked on the 6) is better than 8/5(2).
> Here are a couple of third-roll positions where XG agrees with you.
>
>
> XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---bAdb---A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O X | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 159 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3(2) eq:+0.357
> Player: 58.50% (G:15.11% B:0.51%)
> Opponent: 41.50% (G:9.34% B:0.35%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.351..+0.364) - [80.7%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/10(2) eq:+0.353 (-0.004)
> Player: 58.70% (G:13.74% B:0.47%)
> Opponent: 41.30% (G:8.73% B:0.33%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.347..+0.359) - [19.3%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/15 18/15 eq:+0.323 (-0.035)
> Player: 59.16% (G:9.48% B:0.33%)
> Opponent: 40.84% (G:8.76% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.316..+0.329) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/5(2) eq:+0.310 (-0.047)
> Player: 57.15% (G:15.37% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 42.85% (G:9.66% B:0.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.303..+0.317) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e-A--AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | X | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O O X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 176 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 6/3(2) eq:-0.021
> Player: 48.58% (G:12.86% B:0.41%)
> Opponent: 51.42% (G:9.71% B:0.39%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.029..-0.014) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 8/5(2) eq:-0.051 (-0.029)
> Player: 47.57% (G:13.76% B:0.36%)
> Opponent: 52.43% (G:10.09% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.059..-0.042) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/18 21/18 eq:-0.080 (-0.059)
> Player: 47.70% (G:11.25% B:0.33%)
> Opponent: 52.30% (G:11.39% B:0.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.088..-0.072) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 13/10(2) eq:-0.081 (-0.059)
> Player: 47.19% (G:12.41% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 52.81% (G:10.53% B:0.44%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.089..-0.072) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> But here's one where XG prefers the 5pt:
>
>
> XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d---bAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 164 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/5(3) eq:+0.157
> Player: 53.44% (G:19.36% B:1.04%)
> Opponent: 46.56% (G:15.64% B:0.72%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.149..+0.165) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/3 6/3 eq:+0.134 (-0.024)
> Player: 53.14% (G:16.75% B:0.85%)
> Opponent: 46.86% (G:14.56% B:0.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.126..+0.141) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 6/3(2) eq:+0.121 (-0.036)
> Player: 53.14% (G:18.08% B:1.08%)
> Opponent: 46.86% (G:16.60% B:1.05%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.114..+0.128) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout² Bar/22 24/21 6/3(2) eq:+0.093 (-0.064)
> Player: 52.51% (G:15.95% B:0.94%)
> Opponent: 47.49% (G:15.38% B:0.64%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.080..+0.106) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Thanks for these.
My own rule should be "When in doubt, don't make the 5 point" because
it's far more often for my PR to suffer for making the 5 point rather than for not making it.
(I know that Stick has given exactly the opposite rule.)

Paul

Re: My backgammon adage

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Subject: Re: My backgammon adage
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Wed, 1 Sep 2021 17:59 UTC

On Monday, August 30, 2021 at 3:56:58 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Everyone loves the 5 point, but using the 8 to make the 5 (and thereby
> losing the 8) isn't such a stellar gain. So in these situations, look for
> something else to do. With 33, 6/3(2) (with 4 or more stacked on the 6) is better than 8/5(2).
>
> Paul

It's a bad adage. The few examples you'll scrape up are specifically dealing with double threes. If you have a normal
[31] to play and you have to give up the 8pt of course you will. (because you won't be able to do so much with the roll otherwise)

Stick

interests / rec.games.backgammon / My backgammon adage

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