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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Which blot(s) do you leave?

SubjectAuthor
* Which blot(s) do you leave?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?badgolferman
|`* Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?J R
| `* Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?badgolferman
|  `- Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?J R
`- Rollout: Which blot(s) do you leave?Timothy Chow

1
Which blot(s) do you leave?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which blot(s) do you leave?
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2021 09:37:00 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 1 Sep 2021 13:37 UTC

XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2021 13:42:35 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 1 Sep 2021 13:42 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O X | | O O O O | +---+
> | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | X | | X X |
> | X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, O own cube
>X to play 64
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes awkward.
I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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Subject: Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Wed, 1 Sep 2021 18:03 UTC

On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
> Timothy Chow wrote:
>
> >XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> >X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O X | | O O O O | +---+
> > | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | | | O O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | X | | X X |
> > | X | | X X |
> > | O X | | X X |
> > | O X | | X X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
> >Cube: 2, O own cube
> >X to play 64
> >
> >---
> >Tim Chow
> I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
> there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes awkward.
> I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.

The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on where to play the four.

Stick

Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2021 11:28:50 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Thu, 2 Sep 2021 11:28 UTC

J R wrote:

>On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman
>wrote:
>> Timothy Chow wrote:
>>
>> >XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>> >
>> >X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>> >Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>> > | O X | | O O O O | +---+
>> > | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
>> > | | | O O | +---+
>> > | | | |
>> > | | | |
>> > | |BAR| |
>> > | | O | |
>> > | X | | X X |
>> > | X | | X X |
>> > | O X | | X X |
>> > | O X | | X X O X |
>> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> >Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
>> >Cube: 2, O own cube
>> >X to play 64
>> >
>> >---
>> >Tim Chow
>> I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
>> there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes
>>awkward. I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.
>
>The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on
>where to play the four.
>
>Stick

I have two ways to play 6:
-- 18/14/8
-- 8/2

The question is where to leave a blot and it looks like I have three
choices:
-- 18 point
-- 2 point
-- 1 point

I don't want to break up the 18 point yet. That leaves 1 or 2 point.
I chose to make anchor on 2 point, but I suppose making anchor on 1
point is also an option. Leaving a blot on 2 point gives me three
options to cover if I don't get hit, but I prefer to get hit on 1 point
rather than 2 point because it forces O a bit deeper into my home board.

This is my thought process. Perhaps you could provide yours for me to
learn rather than cryptic messages.

Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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Subject: Re: Which blot(s) do you leave?
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Thu, 2 Sep 2021 14:07 UTC

On Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:28:52 AM UTC-4, badgolferman wrote:
> J R wrote:
>
> >On Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:42:37 AM UTC-4, badgolferman
> >wrote:
> >> Timothy Chow wrote:
> >>
> >> >XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> >> >
> >> >X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >> >Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> >> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> >> > | O X | | O O O O | +---+
> >> > | O X | | O O O | | 2 |
> >> > | | | O O | +---+
> >> > | | | |
> >> > | | | |
> >> > | |BAR| |
> >> > | | O | |
> >> > | X | | X X |
> >> > | X | | X X |
> >> > | O X | | X X |
> >> > | O X | | X X O X |
> >> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >> >Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
> >> >Cube: 2, O own cube
> >> >X to play 64
> >> >
> >> >---
> >> >Tim Chow
> >> I would probably play 8/2, 6/2 since I can take a home point and
> >> there's nothing better. If I cover the 1 then the 6 becomes
> >>awkward. I don't want to break up the 18-point yet.
> >
> >The six is virtually forced. You should play it and then decide on
> >where to play the four.
> >
> >Stick
> I have two ways to play 6:
> -- 18/14/8
> -- 8/2
>
> The question is where to leave a blot and it looks like I have three
> choices:
> -- 18 point
> -- 2 point
> -- 1 point
>
> I don't want to break up the 18 point yet. That leaves 1 or 2 point.
> I chose to make anchor on 2 point, but I suppose making anchor on 1
> point is also an option. Leaving a blot on 2 point gives me three
> options to cover if I don't get hit, but I prefer to get hit on 1 point
> rather than 2 point because it forces O a bit deeper into my home board.
>
> This is my thought process. Perhaps you could provide yours for me to
> learn rather than cryptic messages.

How was my message cryptic? It was general advice for any position where part of the play is forced/virtually forced. It allows players to better compare the remaining options.

Stick

Rollout: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which blot(s) do you leave?
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2021 08:15:33 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 3 Sep 2021 12:15 UTC

XGID=aA--aDD-D---b---b-Bccb-a--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

We can discard 18/8 as being too loose; O is behind in the race with
the stronger board, and despite being on the bar, has too many hitting
rolls. So it's between 8/2 5/1 and 8/2 6/2. Both leave the same number
of shots. We've often been taught that the higher the point in our
board, the better it is, but that's not always true. First, as
badgolferman noted, if we're missed, then we have more ways to cover
a blot on the 2pt than a blot on the 1pt. Second, are we really
better off with the 2pt made and an opponent's blot on the 1pt than
with the 1pt made and an opponent's blot on the 2pt? Not really.
We're not trying to prime our opponent. We're either attacking or
racing, and for either of those, the 1pt isn't worse than the 2pt
and might even be slightly better since it forces O slightly more
forward.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 5/1 eq:+0.173
Player: 59.11% (G:24.04% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 40.89% (G:10.87% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.164..+0.181) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.109 (-0.063)
Player: 57.48% (G:22.57% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 42.52% (G:11.75% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.101..+0.118) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Which blot(s) do you leave?

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