Power in Poland is up for grabs, after an exit poll predicted the
populist ruling party would lose its parliamentary majority in a
bitter and high-stakes national election.

The Law and Justice party, known by its Polish acronym PiS, was
projected to win the most seats after Sunday’s vote.

But it fell some way short of a parliamentary majority, and the
opposition bloc – led by former Polish prime minister and European
Council president Donald Tusk – appeared to have a path to power if
it struck deals with smaller parties.

Both Tusk and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the PiS chairman and Poland’s de
facto leader, attempted to declare victory on Sunday night. In
reality, however, days of negotiations may lie ahead until the
make-up of the country’s new government becomes clear.

“The exit poll results give us the fourth victory in the history of
our party in the parliamentary elections and the third victory in a
row; this is a great success of our formation and our project for
Poland,” Kaczynski told supporters.

A smaller coalition called Third Way may end up as kingmakers. The
centrist bloc has criticized both major parties, arguing that
neither represents Poland’s best path forward. But its leader Szymon
Hołownia has long lambasted the performance of PiS, and insisted he
would not pursue a pact with the incumbent party.

The outcome of this election could have major ramifications for
Poland’s future direction, the balance of power in the European
Union and the future of the war in Ukraine.

PiS, which has been mired in bitter spats with the EU during its
eight years in power, was seeking a third consecutive electoral
success – an unprecedented feat since Poland regained its
independence from the Soviet Union.

The party has been accused by the EU and Polish opposition figures
of dismantling Poland’s democratic institutions during its time in
power. PiS has brought the Polish judiciary, public media and
cultural bodies under greater government control, and has taken a
hard line against abortion access and LGBTQ+ rights.

During a bitter campaign, the party shot back at Tusk’s opposition
coalition, claiming the former leader would be subservient to
Brussels and Berlin if he returned to power.

High inflation and the security of Poland’s borders have been front
of mind for voters during the campaign. Developments were also
watched in Kyiv, after a tense period that saw relations between the
two close allies sour.

Poland has been a crucial partner to Ukraine as it fights Russian
forces in its east, but Warsaw was intensely critical of Ukraine’s
government during a dispute over the imports of Ukrainian grain.

Voters were electing members of both houses of Poland’s parliament,
with 231 seats in the Sejm – Warsaw’s lower house – needed for a
party to clinch power outright.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-
intl/index.html

Sal LeGrange <remailer@domain.invalid> pisze:
> Power in Poland is up for grabs, after an exit poll predicted the
> populist ruling party would lose its parliamentary majority in a
> bitter and high-stakes national election.
> […]
> https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-intl/index.html

According to estimates (exit polls [A]) non-PiS ruling parliamentary
majority requires the three party coalition (KO+3D+L) with only one
combination possible. PiS majority requires two party coalition (PiS+3D)
with second combination (PiS+L) likely to also create majority.

1. Never ever treat "quite likely" (non-PiS _working_ parliamentary
majority) as "guaranteed" in Realpolitik :-)
2. AFAIR some voters had been "reluctant" to declare voting PiS.
Exit polls _MAY_ have errors bigger than declared/expected.
It is not very likely (yet again) but it is possible
especially in case of Konfederacja. Konfederacja have been accused
of "too much sympathy" towards Russia and "skepticism" towards
Ukraine.

[A] Estimates of MP numbers based on exit polls:
https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-wybory-2023-jaki-moze-byc-podzial-na-mandaty-w-sejmie,nId,7089035#crp_state=1
> Prawo i Sprawiedliwość [Law and Justice] (PiS) - 200,
> Koalicja Obywatelska [Citizen Coalition] (KO/PO) - 163 mandaty,
> Trzecia Droga [Third Way] (3D) - 55 mandaty,
> Lewica [Left] (L) - 30 mandatów,
> Konfederacja [Confederacy](K) - 12 mandatów.

--
A. Filip
| W moim domu jestem sługą, w obcym - panem. (Przysłowie ormiańskie)

On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 8:32:21 PM UTC-2:30, A. Filip wrote:

> 2. AFAIR some voters had been "reluctant" to declare voting PiS.

Hmm, why would it be so? ;-)

On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 4:02:21 PM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:

> According to estimates (exit polls [A]) non-PiS ruling parliamentary
> majority requires the three party coalition (KO+3D+L) with only one
> combination possible. PiS majority requires two party coalition (PiS+3D)
> with second combination (PiS+L) likely to also create majority.
(...)
> > Prawo i Sprawiedliwość [Law and Justice] (PiS) - 200,
> > Koalicja Obywatelska [Citizen Coalition] (KO/PO) - 163 mandaty,
> > Trzecia Droga [Third Way] (3D) - 55 mandaty,
> > Lewica [Left] (L) - 30 mandatów,
> > Konfederacja [Confederacy](K) - 12 mandatów.

Wszystkie partie, duze i mniejsze, sa pro-wojenne
wiec w ibecnej czasoprzestrzeni nie czyni wiekszej
roznicy kto z kim bedzie w koalicji rzadzil.

Basia (Ona/Jej)

On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 9:35:56 PM UTC-2:30, Basia wrote:
> On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 4:02:21 PM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
>
> > According to estimates (exit polls [A]) non-PiS ruling parliamentary
> > majority requires the three party coalition (KO+3D+L) with only one
> > combination possible. PiS majority requires two party coalition (PiS+3D)
> > with second combination (PiS+L) likely to also create majority.
> (...)
> > > Prawo i Sprawiedliwość [Law and Justice] (PiS) - 200,
> > > Koalicja Obywatelska [Citizen Coalition] (KO/PO) - 163 mandaty,
> > > Trzecia Droga [Third Way] (3D) - 55 mandaty,
> > > Lewica [Left] (L) - 30 mandatów,
> > > Konfederacja [Confederacy](K) - 12 mandatów.
> Wszystkie partie, duze i mniejsze, sa pro-wojenne
> wiec w ibecnej czasoprzestrzeni nie czyni wiekszej
> roznicy kto z kim bedzie w koalicji rzadzil.

Konfederacja jest przeciez pro-rosyjska - popierana przez Zexona, Arnolda i inne prawactwo.
Choc dla Pana Zexon, Arnold i spolka to strange bedfellows:
"Piątka Konfederacji: Nie chcemy Żydów, homoseksualistów, aborcji, podatków i Unii Europejskiej." Sławomir Mentzen, 2019..

Jego kolega partyjny - Grzegorz Braun:" zapewnił, że nie jest radykałem i nie popiera kamienowania homoseksualistów, ale jego zdaniem warto rozważyć "liberalny" pomysł, który za stosunki homoseksualne karałby batożeniem." I po tym slupki elektoratu Konfederacji sie podniosly.

Basia <abjjkst@sbcglobal.net> pisze:
> On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 4:02:21 PM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
>
>> According to estimates (exit polls [A]) non-PiS ruling parliamentary
>> majority requires the three party coalition (KO+3D+L) with only one
>> combination possible. PiS majority requires two party coalition (PiS+3D)
>> with second combination (PiS+L) likely to also create majority.
> (...)
>> > Prawo i Sprawiedliwość [Law and Justice] (PiS) - 200,
>> > Koalicja Obywatelska [Citizen Coalition] (KO/PO) - 163 mandaty,
>> > Trzecia Droga [Third Way] (3D) - 55 mandaty,
>> > Lewica [Left] (L) - 30 mandatów,
>> > Konfederacja [Confederacy](K) - 12 mandatów.
>
> Wszystkie partie, duze i mniejsze, sa pro-wojenne
> wiec w ibecnej czasoprzestrzeni nie czyni wiekszej
> roznicy kto z kim bedzie w koalicji rzadzil.

Ze względu na efekt "wyborcy nie mówią że głosowali na …" _ja_ daje
10% szans że koalicja PiS+Konfederacja miałaby większość w Sejmie
[ewentualnie po "dobraniu" paru posłów z innych list].
Tyle że "jednogłosowa" większość anty-PiS w Senacie jakoś 4 lata
przetrwała. Chociaż senatorów jest "tylko" 100 a posłów "aż" 460,
IMHO bezpieczniej jest traktować że na _góra_ 95% że już wiadomo co
będzie.

Mówiąc historycznie: trójpartyjna koalicja za "pierwszego PiS" jednej
pełnej kadencji nie przetrwała i po dwóch latach były przedterminowe
wybory które PiS przegrało [koalicja PiS + Samoobrona + Liga Polskich
Rodzin ]. Tyle że PiS został pierwszą partią opozycji a SO o LPR
znikły z politycznej sceny wiec może być inaczej po takiej lekcji.

Co proceduralnego tańca: PiS jest największą partią w Sejmie i jest
PiS prezydent. Na 99% "zgodnie z pasującą tradycją" PiS dostanie
pierwszy "szansę" na sformułowanie rządu który raczej nie uzyska
akceptacji większości w Sejmie. Zgrywanie koalicji trójpartyjnej
też może być nerwowe jak będą dzielić łupy/koryto.

--
A. Filip
| Ja i mój brat jesteśmy przeciw kuzynowi, ale my trzej stoimy razem
| przeciw reszcie świata. (Przysłowie afgańskie)

On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 9:13:01 PM UTC-2:30, Piotr wrote:
> On Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 8:32:21 PM UTC-2:30, A. Filip wrote:
>
> > 2. AFAIR some voters had been "reluctant" to declare voting PiS.
> Hmm, why would it be so? ;-)

And what does it tell you about the values and the campaign issues of the Right - that it has to count on the support of the people, who are ashamed to admit that they even voted for them? ...