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Did I say 2? I lied.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Mutual holding game 3

SubjectAuthor
* Mutual holding game 3Timothy Chow
+- Re: Mutual holding game 3badgolferman
`- Rollout: Mutual holding game 3Timothy Chow

1
Mutual holding game 3

<srs3s6$gpi$1@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Mutual holding game 3
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 10:12:05 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 14 Jan 2022 15:12 UTC

XGID=----AbCCB--abB-B---ddbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Re: Mutual holding game 3

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Mutual holding game 3
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 12:51:02 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Sun, 16 Jan 2022 12:51 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=----AbCCB--abB-B---ddbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X | | O O O X |
> | X X | | O O O X |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O |
> | O O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 159 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 63
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I would probably run. 22/13.

Rollout: Mutual holding game 3

<ss1oom$qf5$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Mutual holding game 3
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 13:39:16 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 16 Jan 2022 18:39 UTC

XGID=----AbCCB--abB-B---ddbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

I'm afraid that XG puts badgolferman's play of 22/13 in triple whopper
territory, and I didn't roll it out. The choices I considered were
whether to play totally safe or to leave a blot in the outfield, and
if the latter, where to leave the blot. The safe plays dump checkers
deep in X's board and leave him totally stripped, and are not good.

I opted for 13/10 13/7, thinking that it minimized shots and forced
O to break anchor to hit. However, XG strongly prefers 13/4, covering
the blot in his board. Something I'm still trying to develop a feel
for is how important it is to cover blots in my board behind the
opponent's anchor when I'm trying to discourage my opponent from
running. See also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.324
Player: 42.75% (G:8.29% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 57.25% (G:17.28% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.338..-0.309) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.412 (-0.089)
Player: 40.17% (G:7.19% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 59.83% (G:16.14% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.426..-0.398) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/9 7/4 eq:-0.488 (-0.165)
Player: 39.65% (G:6.94% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 60.35% (G:20.54% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.502..-0.475) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/4 eq:-0.497 (-0.173)
Player: 38.87% (G:7.79% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 61.13% (G:19.19% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.512..-0.482) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 7/1 4/1 eq:-0.500 (-0.177)
Player: 37.39% (G:7.55% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 62.61% (G:15.77% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.513..-0.488) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-----bDCB--abB-B---ddbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.486
Player: 38.68% (G:6.76% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 61.32% (G:17.38% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.493..-0.478) - [78.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.004)
Player: 38.79% (G:7.41% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 61.21% (G:19.11% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.498..-0.482) - [21.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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