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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?

Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 09:45:54 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 17 Jan 2022 14:45 UTC

XGID=a-AaBBBBBB--------ccbbc-AA:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| O | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 19 Jan 2022 14:04 UTC

XGID=a-AaBBBBBB--------ccbbc-AA:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Given that O has a five-prime of her own, it seems a bit scary to
give her a double shot from the bar. But it's thematic in a priming
game to keep as large a solid prime as possible and knock the opponent
off the front of it. After 9/3*, it's not so disastrous for X if O
hits X on his 2pt, plus 9/3* has the best upside if O rolls poorly.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 9/3* eq:-0.204
Player: 52.83% (G:15.02% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 47.17% (G:22.93% B:2.65%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.220..-0.189) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/2 eq:-0.319 (-0.115)
Player: 46.95% (G:13.88% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 53.05% (G:20.41% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.329..-0.309) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 9/7 9/5 eq:-0.355 (-0.151)
Player: 46.22% (G:12.16% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 53.78% (G:21.04% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.368..-0.342) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Please may I play just one 2 instead of four?	Timothy Chow